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PETROL FİYATLARININ CARİ AÇIK ÜZERİNDEKİ EŞİK ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE

Year 2021, Volume: 10 Issue: 20, 42 - 51, 31.12.2021

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, 2003.1 - 2019:12 arası dönem için aylık Türkiye verisi kullanılarak petrol fiyatlarının cari açık üzerindeki eşik etkilerinin varlığı, eşik regresyon modeli kullanılarak araştırılmaktadır. Tahmin sonuçları, petrol fiyatlarının Türkiye'deki cari açık üzerindeki eşik etkilerinin varlığına dair bulgular ortaya koymaktadır. Petrol fiyatının tahmin edilen eşik değerinin üzerinde olması petrol fiyat enflasyonunun cari açık üzerinde bozucu etkiler ortaya çıkarmasına neden olmaktadır.

References

  • Aristovnik, A. (2007). Short- and Medium-Term Determinants of Current Account Balances in Middle East and North Africa Countries (Working Paper No. 862). SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.988171
  • Baffes, J., Kose, M. A., Franziska, O., & Stocker, M. (2015). The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses (Policy Research Note No. PRN/15/01). Washington, DC. https://doi.org/10.2139/ ssrn.2624398
  • Baharumshaha, Z. A., Lau, E., & Fountas, S. (2003). On the sustainability of current account deficits: evidence from four ASEAN countries. Journal of Asian Economics, 14(3), 465–487. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1049-0078(03)00038-1
  • Başarır, Ç., & Erçakar, M. (2016). An Analysis of the Relationship between Crude Oil Prices, Current Account Deficit and Exchange Rates: Turkish Experiment. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 8(11), 48–59. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v8n11p48
  • Bayar, Y., Kılış, C., & Arıca, F. (2014). Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Belirleyicileri. C.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 15(1), 451–471.
  • Bayat, T., Şahbaz, A., & Akçacı, T. (2013). Petrol Fiyatlarının DıŞ Ticaret Açığı Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Erciyes Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 0(42), 67–90.
  • Bitzis, G., Paleologos, J. M., & Papazoglou, C. (2008). The Determinants of the Greek Current Account Deficit: The EMU Experience. Journal of International and
  • Global Economic Studies, 1(1), 105–122. Retrieved from https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/80da/728a33ce79e23d68e7cbaa8136b22524929d.pdf Burbidge, J., & Harrison, A. (1984). Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Auto-Regressions. International Economic Review, 25, 459–484. https://doi.org/10.2307/2526209
  • Cardi, O. (2007). Anothrt iew of The J-Curve. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 11(2), 153–174.
  • Chuku, C. A., Akpan, U. F., Sam, N. R., & Effiong, E. L. (2011). Oil price shocks and the dynamics of current account balances in Nigeria. Opec Energy Review, 35(2), 113–139. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-0237.2011.00186.x
  • Demir, M. (2013). Enerji ithalati cari açik ilişkisi, VAR analizi ile Türkiye üzerine bir inceleme. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 5(9), 2–27.
  • Demirbaş, M., Türkay, H., & Türkoğlu, M. (2009). Petrol fiyatlarındaki gelişmelerin Türkiyenin cari açığı üzerine etkisinin analizi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 14(3), 289–299.
  • Dickey, D., & Fuller, W. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49, 1057–1072.
  • Erdoğan, S., & Bozkurt, H. (2009). Türkiye’de Caari Açığın Belirleyicileri: MGARCH Modelleri ile Bir İnceleme. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, 1(84), 135–172.
  • Greenwood, J. (1984). Non-Traded Goods, the Trade Balance, and the Balance of Payments. The Canadian Journal of Economic, 17(4), 806–823. https://doi.org/10.2307/135075
  • Gruber, J. W., & Kamin, S. B. (2007). Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalance. Journal of International Money and Finance, 26(4), 500–522. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2007.03.003
  • Güngör, S., Sönmez, L., Korkmaz, Ö., & Karaca, S. S. (2016). Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Değişimlerin Türkiye’nin Cari İşlemler Açığına Etkileri. Maliye Finans Yazıları, 0(106), 29–48.
  • Hamilton, J. (1983). Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II. The Journal of Political Economy. The Journal of Political Economy, 91, 228–248. https://doi.org/10.1086/261140
  • Hansen, B. E. (2000). Sample splitting and threshold estimation. Econometrica. Econometrica, 68, 575–603. Huang, K. X. D., & Meng, Q. (2007). The Harberger–Laursen–Metzler effect under capital market imperfections. Journal of International Money and Finance, 26(6), 1001–1015. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2007.05.003
  • Huntington, H. G. (2015). Crude oil trade and current account deficits. Energy Economics, 50(C), 70–79.
  • Insel, A., & Kayikçi, F. (2013). Determinants of the Current Account Balance in Turkey: an ARDL Approach. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 26(1), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2013.11517587
  • Karagöl, V., & Erdoğan, M. (2016). Cari Açığın Belirleyicilerine Yönelik bir Zaman Serisi Analizi. Sakarya İktisat Dergisi, 5(2), 31–56.
  • Kilian, L., Rebucci, A., & Spatafora, N. (2009). Oil shocks and external balances. Journal of International Economics, 77(2), 181–194. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2009.01.001
  • Le, T.-H., & Chang, Y. (2013). Oil price shocks and trade imbalances. Energy Economics, 36, 78–96. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2012.12.002
  • Lebe, F., & Akbaş, Y. E. (2015). İthal Ham Petrol Fiyatları ile Döviz Kurunun Cari Açık Üzerindeki Etkisi:Türkiye için bir Araştırma. Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 17(2), 170–196.
  • Marion, N. (1984). Nontraded goods, oil price increases and the current account. Journal of International Economics, 16(1–2), 29–44. Retrieved from https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:inecon:v:16:y:1984:i:1-2:p:29-44
  • Micha Gisser, & Goodwin, T. H. (1986). Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions: Note. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 18(1), 95–103. https://doi.org/10.2307/1992323
  • Narayan, S. (2013). A structural VAR model of the Fiji Islands. Economic Modelling, 31, 238–244.
  • Obstfeld, M. (1980). Intermediate imports, the terms of trade, and the dynamics of the exchange rate and current account. Journal of International Economics, 10(4), 461–480. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1996(80)90001-X
  • Obstfeld, M. (1982). Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 97(2), 251–270. https://doi.org/10.2307/1880757
  • Otto, G. (2003). Terms of trade shocks and the balance of trade: there is a Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect. Journal of International Money and Finance, 22(2), 155–184. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5606(02)00075-X
  • Özata, E. (2014). Sustainability of current account deficit with high oil prices: Evidence from Turkey. International Journal of Economic Sciences, 2014(2), 71–88.
  • Özlale, Ü., & Pekkurnaz, D. (2010). Oil prices and current account: A structural analysis for the Turkish economy. Energy Policy, 38(8), 4489–4496. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.03.082
  • Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75, 335–346.
  • Rebucci, A., & Spatafora, N. (2006). Oil prices and global imbalances (World Economic Outlook).
  • Sachs, J. D. (1980). Energy and Growth under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Simulation Study (NBER Working Papers No. 0582).
  • Sachs, J. D. (1981). The Current Account and macroeconomic Adjustment in the 1970s. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 12(1), 201–282.
  • Schubert, S. F. (2014). DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 18(2), 316–337. https://doi.org/DOI: 10.1017/S1365100512000405
  • Sen, P., & Turnovsky, S. J. (1989). Deterioration of the terms of trade and capital accumulation: A re-examination of the Laursen-Metzler effect. Journal of International Economics, 26(3), 227–250. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1996(89)90002-0
  • Svensson, L. E. O., & Razin, A. (1983). The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect. Journal of Political Economy, 91(1), 97–125. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/1840432
  • Tamir, A., & Laffer, A. B. (1978). Trade, Payments and Adjustment: The Case of the Oil Price Rise. Kyklos, 31(1), 68–85.
  • TPAO. (2020). 2020 Petrol ve Doğalgaz Sektör Raporu. Retrieved from https://www.tpao.gov.tr/file/2109/2020-sektor-raporu-55961407ccace9f5.pdf
  • TSKB. (2020). Enerji Görünümü 2020. Retrieved from https://www.tskb.com.tr/i/assets/document/pdf/enerji-sektor-gorunumu-2020.pdf Turnovsky, S. J., & Sen, P. (1991). Fiscal Policy, Capital Accumulation, and Debt in an Open Economy. Oxford Economic Papers, 43(1), 1–24. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2663167
  • van Wijnbergen, S. (1985). Oil Price Shocks, Unemployment, Investment and the Current Account: An Intertemporal Disequilibrium Analysis. The Review of Economic Studies, 52(4), 627–645. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297736
  • Varlik, S., & Berument, M. H. (2020). Oil price shocks and the composition of current account balance. Central Bank Review, 20(1), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2020.02.002
  • Zaouali, S. (2007). Impact of higher oil prices on the Chinese economy. OPEC Review, 31(3), 191–214. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0076.2007.00183.x
Year 2021, Volume: 10 Issue: 20, 42 - 51, 31.12.2021

Abstract

References

  • Aristovnik, A. (2007). Short- and Medium-Term Determinants of Current Account Balances in Middle East and North Africa Countries (Working Paper No. 862). SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.988171
  • Baffes, J., Kose, M. A., Franziska, O., & Stocker, M. (2015). The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses (Policy Research Note No. PRN/15/01). Washington, DC. https://doi.org/10.2139/ ssrn.2624398
  • Baharumshaha, Z. A., Lau, E., & Fountas, S. (2003). On the sustainability of current account deficits: evidence from four ASEAN countries. Journal of Asian Economics, 14(3), 465–487. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1049-0078(03)00038-1
  • Başarır, Ç., & Erçakar, M. (2016). An Analysis of the Relationship between Crude Oil Prices, Current Account Deficit and Exchange Rates: Turkish Experiment. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 8(11), 48–59. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v8n11p48
  • Bayar, Y., Kılış, C., & Arıca, F. (2014). Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Belirleyicileri. C.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 15(1), 451–471.
  • Bayat, T., Şahbaz, A., & Akçacı, T. (2013). Petrol Fiyatlarının DıŞ Ticaret Açığı Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Erciyes Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 0(42), 67–90.
  • Bitzis, G., Paleologos, J. M., & Papazoglou, C. (2008). The Determinants of the Greek Current Account Deficit: The EMU Experience. Journal of International and
  • Global Economic Studies, 1(1), 105–122. Retrieved from https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/80da/728a33ce79e23d68e7cbaa8136b22524929d.pdf Burbidge, J., & Harrison, A. (1984). Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Auto-Regressions. International Economic Review, 25, 459–484. https://doi.org/10.2307/2526209
  • Cardi, O. (2007). Anothrt iew of The J-Curve. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 11(2), 153–174.
  • Chuku, C. A., Akpan, U. F., Sam, N. R., & Effiong, E. L. (2011). Oil price shocks and the dynamics of current account balances in Nigeria. Opec Energy Review, 35(2), 113–139. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-0237.2011.00186.x
  • Demir, M. (2013). Enerji ithalati cari açik ilişkisi, VAR analizi ile Türkiye üzerine bir inceleme. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 5(9), 2–27.
  • Demirbaş, M., Türkay, H., & Türkoğlu, M. (2009). Petrol fiyatlarındaki gelişmelerin Türkiyenin cari açığı üzerine etkisinin analizi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 14(3), 289–299.
  • Dickey, D., & Fuller, W. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49, 1057–1072.
  • Erdoğan, S., & Bozkurt, H. (2009). Türkiye’de Caari Açığın Belirleyicileri: MGARCH Modelleri ile Bir İnceleme. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, 1(84), 135–172.
  • Greenwood, J. (1984). Non-Traded Goods, the Trade Balance, and the Balance of Payments. The Canadian Journal of Economic, 17(4), 806–823. https://doi.org/10.2307/135075
  • Gruber, J. W., & Kamin, S. B. (2007). Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalance. Journal of International Money and Finance, 26(4), 500–522. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2007.03.003
  • Güngör, S., Sönmez, L., Korkmaz, Ö., & Karaca, S. S. (2016). Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Değişimlerin Türkiye’nin Cari İşlemler Açığına Etkileri. Maliye Finans Yazıları, 0(106), 29–48.
  • Hamilton, J. (1983). Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II. The Journal of Political Economy. The Journal of Political Economy, 91, 228–248. https://doi.org/10.1086/261140
  • Hansen, B. E. (2000). Sample splitting and threshold estimation. Econometrica. Econometrica, 68, 575–603. Huang, K. X. D., & Meng, Q. (2007). The Harberger–Laursen–Metzler effect under capital market imperfections. Journal of International Money and Finance, 26(6), 1001–1015. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2007.05.003
  • Huntington, H. G. (2015). Crude oil trade and current account deficits. Energy Economics, 50(C), 70–79.
  • Insel, A., & Kayikçi, F. (2013). Determinants of the Current Account Balance in Turkey: an ARDL Approach. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 26(1), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2013.11517587
  • Karagöl, V., & Erdoğan, M. (2016). Cari Açığın Belirleyicilerine Yönelik bir Zaman Serisi Analizi. Sakarya İktisat Dergisi, 5(2), 31–56.
  • Kilian, L., Rebucci, A., & Spatafora, N. (2009). Oil shocks and external balances. Journal of International Economics, 77(2), 181–194. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2009.01.001
  • Le, T.-H., & Chang, Y. (2013). Oil price shocks and trade imbalances. Energy Economics, 36, 78–96. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2012.12.002
  • Lebe, F., & Akbaş, Y. E. (2015). İthal Ham Petrol Fiyatları ile Döviz Kurunun Cari Açık Üzerindeki Etkisi:Türkiye için bir Araştırma. Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 17(2), 170–196.
  • Marion, N. (1984). Nontraded goods, oil price increases and the current account. Journal of International Economics, 16(1–2), 29–44. Retrieved from https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:inecon:v:16:y:1984:i:1-2:p:29-44
  • Micha Gisser, & Goodwin, T. H. (1986). Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions: Note. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 18(1), 95–103. https://doi.org/10.2307/1992323
  • Narayan, S. (2013). A structural VAR model of the Fiji Islands. Economic Modelling, 31, 238–244.
  • Obstfeld, M. (1980). Intermediate imports, the terms of trade, and the dynamics of the exchange rate and current account. Journal of International Economics, 10(4), 461–480. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1996(80)90001-X
  • Obstfeld, M. (1982). Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 97(2), 251–270. https://doi.org/10.2307/1880757
  • Otto, G. (2003). Terms of trade shocks and the balance of trade: there is a Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect. Journal of International Money and Finance, 22(2), 155–184. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5606(02)00075-X
  • Özata, E. (2014). Sustainability of current account deficit with high oil prices: Evidence from Turkey. International Journal of Economic Sciences, 2014(2), 71–88.
  • Özlale, Ü., & Pekkurnaz, D. (2010). Oil prices and current account: A structural analysis for the Turkish economy. Energy Policy, 38(8), 4489–4496. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.03.082
  • Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75, 335–346.
  • Rebucci, A., & Spatafora, N. (2006). Oil prices and global imbalances (World Economic Outlook).
  • Sachs, J. D. (1980). Energy and Growth under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Simulation Study (NBER Working Papers No. 0582).
  • Sachs, J. D. (1981). The Current Account and macroeconomic Adjustment in the 1970s. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 12(1), 201–282.
  • Schubert, S. F. (2014). DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 18(2), 316–337. https://doi.org/DOI: 10.1017/S1365100512000405
  • Sen, P., & Turnovsky, S. J. (1989). Deterioration of the terms of trade and capital accumulation: A re-examination of the Laursen-Metzler effect. Journal of International Economics, 26(3), 227–250. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1996(89)90002-0
  • Svensson, L. E. O., & Razin, A. (1983). The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect. Journal of Political Economy, 91(1), 97–125. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/1840432
  • Tamir, A., & Laffer, A. B. (1978). Trade, Payments and Adjustment: The Case of the Oil Price Rise. Kyklos, 31(1), 68–85.
  • TPAO. (2020). 2020 Petrol ve Doğalgaz Sektör Raporu. Retrieved from https://www.tpao.gov.tr/file/2109/2020-sektor-raporu-55961407ccace9f5.pdf
  • TSKB. (2020). Enerji Görünümü 2020. Retrieved from https://www.tskb.com.tr/i/assets/document/pdf/enerji-sektor-gorunumu-2020.pdf Turnovsky, S. J., & Sen, P. (1991). Fiscal Policy, Capital Accumulation, and Debt in an Open Economy. Oxford Economic Papers, 43(1), 1–24. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2663167
  • van Wijnbergen, S. (1985). Oil Price Shocks, Unemployment, Investment and the Current Account: An Intertemporal Disequilibrium Analysis. The Review of Economic Studies, 52(4), 627–645. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297736
  • Varlik, S., & Berument, M. H. (2020). Oil price shocks and the composition of current account balance. Central Bank Review, 20(1), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2020.02.002
  • Zaouali, S. (2007). Impact of higher oil prices on the Chinese economy. OPEC Review, 31(3), 191–214. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0076.2007.00183.x
There are 46 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Dinçer Dedeoğlu 0000-0002-7308-9478

Publication Date December 31, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 10 Issue: 20

Cite

APA Dedeoğlu, D. (2021). PETROL FİYATLARININ CARİ AÇIK ÜZERİNDEKİ EŞİK ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE. Global Journal of Economics and Business Studies, 10(20), 42-51.