Analysis of the Western Orientation of the Baltic Countries in the Context of Balance of Threat Theory

Year 2022, , 547 - 578, 26.12.2022

Sezgin Kaya

https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.1202070

Abstract

Since 1991, when they regained their independence, the Baltic States have made a concerted effort to become part of the Western alliance system. The article is based on the idea that the primary reason for this orientation cannot be explained solely by normative elements such as identity or culture. Undoubtedly, the West has always been a world to which these countries in question did not belong. Nevertheless, it should not be forgotten that the main priority of the Baltic States, which are categorised as small states, is to preserve their independence. As a result of their historical experiences, Russia is the biggest obstacle that the Baltic countries see in front of these goals. In order to balance the renewed and intensely felt Russian threat, the West has been seen as the only real strategic choice for the region’s countries. This article argues that the countries of the region have no alternative option in this process, which resulted in membership in NATO and the EU. Indeed, historical experience has shown that these countries’ strategic choices, such as bandwagoning to preserve their independence, which would mean aligning with the threatener, or avoiding being the centre of attention of the adversary by remaining neutral have not yielded results. Therefore, this article aims to try to understand the logic of the Baltic states’ strategic choices based on the balance of threat theory. This is because by turning towards the West, the countries of the region have sought to balance not Russian power but the threat they perceive from this country.

Keywords

Baltic Security, Balance of Threat, Military Doctrine, Russian Diaspora, Narva Question

Baltık Ülkelerinin Batı Yöneliminin Tehdit Dengesi Kuramı Bağlamında Analizi

Abstract

Baltık ülkeleri bağımsızlıklarını yeniden kazandıkları 1991 yılından itibaren Batı ittifak sisteminin bir parçası olmak için yoğun bir çaba içerisine girmişlerdir. Makale, bu yönelimin temel nedeninin salt kimlik ya da kültür gibi normatif unsurlarla izah edilemeyeceği fikrine dayanmaktadır. Şüphesiz Batı söz konusu ülkeler için hep ait olmadıkları bir dünya olmuştur. Bununla birlikte küçük devletler kategorisinde değerlendirilen Baltık ülkelerin asıl önceliklerinin, bağımsızlıklarını korumak olduğunu unutmamak gerekir. Tarihsel tecrübelerinin bir sonucu olarak Baltık ülkelerinin bu hedeflerinin önünde gördükleri en büyük engel ise Rusya’dır. Yeniden ve yoğun bir şekilde hissedilen Rus tehdidi dengelemek için Batı, bölge ülkeleri açısından tek gerçekçi stratejik tercih olarak görülmüştür. Makalede bölge ülkelerinin NATO ve AB’ye üyelikle sonuçlanan bu süreçte alternatif bir başka seçeneklerinin olmadığı savunulmaktadır. Zira tarihsel tecrübeleri göstermiştir ki bu ülkelerinin bağımsızlıklarını korumak için tehdidin kaynağıyla uyum sağlamak anlamına gelecek şekilde peşine takılma ya da tarafsız kalarak tehdidin ilgi odağı olmaktan kaçınma gibi stratejik tercihlerde bulunmaları sonuç vermemiştir. Dolayısıyla makalenin amacı tehdit dengesi kuramından hareketle Baltık devletlerinin stratejik tercihlerinin mantığını anlamaya çalışmaktır. Zira bölge ülkeleri Batı’ya yönelerek Rus gücünü değil ama bu ülkeden algıladıkları tehdidi dengelemek istemişlerdir.

Keywords

Baltık Güvenliği, Tehdit Dengesi, Askerî Doktrin, Rus Diasporası, Narva Sorunu, Baltic Security, Balance of Threat, Military Doctrine, Russian Diaspora, Narva Question

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