Simulations in Pre-emptive and Preventive Intervention

Year 2023, , 455 - 481, 22.08.2023

Elif Gürdal Limon , Onur Limon

https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.1297815

Abstract

Simulations are digital environments created by imitating real environments and creating similar ones with mathematical models. In this respect, it is possible to calculate all the possibilities that can be experienced by uploading the data of the real world to these imitated digital environments. The fact that the resulting knowledge can affect real-world policies is a subject that needs to be discussed. Thanks to simulations, probability calculations for important security issues of states have now become frequently used methods. However, it should be discussed whether this security method tried to be provided through the digital space will be a directing factor as a basis for defence or whether taking an action based on simulation data can be interpreted as an attack. This study undertakes to seek answers to these questions. The conceptual framework of the study is the concepts of pre-emptive and preventive intervention. In this context, the study examines whether the use of simulation data as a basis for defence in interventions can be a pre-emptive and preventive approach. The legitimacy of using simulation data and artificial intelligence analyses for identifying enemies and calculating aggression indicators depends on the specific forms of international cooperation and the processes through which international actors establish acceptable options.

Keywords

Pre-emptive Intervention, Preventive Intervention, Simulation, Digitization, Security

Ön-Alıcı ve Önleyici Müdahalede Simülasyonlar

Abstract

Simülasyonlar gerçek ortamların taklit edilmesi ve birebir benzerlerinin matematiksel modellerle yaratılması ile oluşturulan dijital ortamlardır. Bu dijital ortamlara gerçek dünyanın verileri yüklenerek yaşanabilecek tüm olasılıkların hesaplanabilmesi mümkün olabilmektedir. Ortaya çıkan bilginin ise gerçek dünyadaki politikaları etkileyebilmesi tartışılması gereken bir konu olmaktadır. Simülasyonlar sayesinde devletlerin önemli güvenlik meselelerine dair olasılık hesaplarının yapılması artık sık sık başvurulan yöntemler haline gelmiştir. Ancak dijital alan üzerinden sağlanmaya çalışılan bu güvenlik yönteminin savunma dayanağı olarak yönlendirici olup olmayacağı ya da simülasyon verilerine dayanarak bir eylemde bulunmanın saldırı olarak yorumlanıp yorumlanamayacağı tartışılmalıdır. Bu çalışma bu sorulara yanıt aramak için ele alınmıştır. Kavramsal çerçeve ön-alıcı ve önleyici müdahale kavramlarıdır. Bu çerçevede simülasyon verilerinin müdahale ederken bir savunma dayanağı olarak kullanılmasının ön-alıcı mı yoksa önleyici mi olduğu tartışılmaktadır. Simülasyon verileri ve yapay zekâ analizlerinin düşman tanımlaması ve saldırganlık göstergelerinin hesaplamalarında meşru bir hukuksal dayanak olup olamaması uluslararası iş birliğinin şekli ve uluslararası aktörlerin kabul edilir seçenekleri meşrulaştırma süreçlerine göre değişmektedir.

Keywords

Ön-Alıcı Müdahale, Önleyici Müdahale, Simülasyon, Dijitalleşme, Güvenlik

References

• AĞIR Bülent Sarper (2006). “Bush Doktrini Küresel Bir Hegemonik İstikrar Arayışı mı?”, Uluslararası İlişkiler, 3:12, 71-100.
• BAE Sebastian J. (ed.) (2022). Forging Wargamers: A Framework for Wargaming Educations, Marine Corps University Press, Quantico.
• BATTILEGA John A. ve GRANGE Judith K. (1984). The Military Applications of Modeling, Air Force Institute of Technology Press, Ohio.
• BOUDREAU Donald G. (1993). “The Bombing of The Osirak Reactor” International Journal on World Peace, 10:2, 21-37.
• CHARTER OF THE UNITED NATIONS, Chapter I, Purposes and Principles Article 2(1)–(5), https://legal.un.org/repertory/art2.shtml.
• DAGPUNAR John S. (2007). Simulation and Monte Carlo With applications in finance and MCMC, John Wiley and Sons, Chichester.
• DONNELLY Thomas (2005). The Military We Need The Defense Requirements of the Bush Doctrine, The AEI Press, Washington.
• DÖNMEZ Suat (2017). “Kuvvet Kullanma Kapsamında Ön Alıcı ve Önleyici Saldırı Kavramları”, Balkan ve Yakın Doğu Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 3:3, 8-15.
• DUNMİRE Patricia L. (2009). “9/11 Changed Everything: on Intertextual Analysis of the Bush Doctrine”, Discourse & Society, 20:2, 195-222.
• DÜZGÜN Dilan Ezgi (11-14 Nisan 2019). Yudum Kayhan, Kerim Çetı̇nkaya, Sı̇mülasyondan Artırılmış Gerçeklı̇ğe, 4th International Congress on 3D Printing, Technologies and Digital Industry, Antalya.
• EVERA Stephen Van (2008). “A Farewell to Geopolitics”, Eds.: Melvyn P. Leffler ve Jeffrey W. Legro, To Lead The World: American Strategy after the Bush Doctrine, Oxford University Press, Oxford ve New York.
• FINLAN Alastair (2006). “International Security”, (ed.) Mary Buckley ve Robert Singh, The Bush Doctrine And The War On Terrorism Global Responses, Global Consequences, Routledge, New York.
• FLYNN Matthew J. (2008). First Strike: Preemptive Warfare in Modern History, Taylor & Francis, New York.
• GRAY Colin S. (Temmuz, 2007). “The Implications of Preemptive And Preventive War Doctrines: A Reconsideration”, USA Strategic Studies Institute U.S. Army War College, Temmuz 2007, Başlık: 17, Bölüm: 101.
• HILL Raymond R. ve MILLER John O. (2017). “A History of Unıted States Military Simulation”, Proceedings of the 2017 Winter Simulation Conference, s. 198.
• IKENBERRY G. John (2002). “America’s Imperial Ambition”, Foreign Affairs, 81:5, 44-60.
• KARADAĞ Ulaş (2016). “Birleşmiş Milletler Antlaşması’na Göre Meşru Müdafaa Hakkı”, İnönü Üniversitesi Hukuk Fakültesi Dergisi, 7:2, 171-186.
• KAUFMAN Robert Gordon (2007). In Defense of the Bush Doctrine, The University Press of Kentucky, Kentucky.
• KEGLEY Charles W. ve RAYMOND Gregory A. (2003). “Preventive War and Permissive Normative Order.” International Studies Perspectives, 4:4, 385-394.
• KIRSCHENBAUM, J. (2010). “Operation Opera: An Ambiguous Success.” Journal of Strategic Security, 3:4, 49-62.
• KISSINGER Henry (2002). “Preemption and the End of Westphalia”, New Perspectives Quarterly, 19:4, 31-36.
• LAFEBER Walter (Güz 2002). “The Bush Doctrine”, Diplomatic History, 26:4, 543-558.
• LAYNE Christopher (2006). “The Unipolar Illusion Revisited: The Coming End of the United States’ Unipolar Moment.” International Security, 31:2, 7-41.
• MUELLER Karl P. CASTILLO Jasen J. MORGAN Forrest E. PEGAHI Negeen ROSEN Brian (2006). Striking First: Preemptive and Preventive Attack in U.S. National Security Policy, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica.
• NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL (1995). The Changing Nature of Telecommunications/Information Infrastructure, The National Academies Press, Washington.
• PARKER, Thomas (2016). “When Churchill Bombed France.” The National Interest, 145, 77-84.
• PAZARCI Hüseyin (2015). Uluslararası Hukuk, Turhan Kitabevi, Ankara.
• REITER Dan (2005). “Preventive Attacks Against Nuclear Programs and the’Success’at Osiraq”, Nonproliferation Review, 12:2, 355-371.
• RENSHON Stanley A. (2010). National Security in the Obama Administration Reassessing the Bush Doctrine, Routledge, New York.
• SCHMIDT Brian C. ve WİLLİAMS Michael C. (2008). “The Bush Doctrine and the Iraq War: Neoconservatives Versus Realists”, Security Studies, 17, 191-220.
• THE USA NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL (Ekim 2002) the National Security Strategy Chapter III. Strengthen Alliances to Defeat Global Terrorism and Work to Prevent Attacks Against Us and Our Friends.
• UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCIL (1981). Decision of 19 June 1981 (2288th meeting): Resolution 487.
• UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCIL OFFICIAL RECORDS (15 Haziran 1981). Attack on Iraq - SecCo Debate -Verbatim record, 2282nd Meeting, New York.
• LOBEL Jules (2000). “Benign Hegemony? Kosovo and Article 2(4) of the U. N. Charter,” Chicago Journal of International Law, 1:1, 19-36.
• YAO Kai ve HUANG Shaoluo (2021). “Simulation Technology and Analysis of Military Simulation Training”, Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1746, s. 2
• AMAZON (2023). “Monte Carlo Simülasyonu nedir?”, https://aws.amazon.com/ tr/what-is/monte-carlo-simulation/, erişim 11.05.2023.
• HAVELSAN (2020) “Havelsan Yapay Zekâlı Simülatör Geliştirecek”, https://www.havelsan.com.tr/haberler/guncel/havelsan-yapay-zekali-simulator-gelistirecek, erişim 11.05.2023.
• INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY & DEVELOPMENT POLICY (Haziran 2018). “Made in China 2025 Backgrounder”, https://isdp.eu/content/uploads/ 2018/06/Made-in-China-Backgrounder.pdf, erişim 11.05.2023.
• KOYUNCU Hüseyin (2021). “Askeri Simülasyon Basına Sızdı: Rus Ordusu Varşova’yı 4 Günde Kuşatabilir”, https://tr.euronews.com/2021/02/06/rus-ordusu-polonya-ya-sald-r-rsa-baskent-varsova-sadece-dort-gunde-kusat-l-r, erişim 11.05.2023.
• LACEY James (22 Nisan 2019). “How Does The Next Great Power Conflıct Play Out? Lessons From A Wargame”, War on the Rock, https://warontherocks.com/ 2019/04/how-does-the-next-great-power-conflict-play-out-lessons-from-a-wargame/, erişim 11.05.2023.
• LINDEN LAB (2023). “About Linden Lab”, https://www.lindenlab.com/, erişim 11.05.2023.
• MICROSOFT (2013). “Surface Hub 2S”, https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/surface/business/surface-hub-2, erişim 11.05.2023.
• MICROSOFT (2015). “Diplomacy Everywhere: Microsoft donates cutting-edge technology to bring diplomacy to life for visitors of the U.S. Diplomacy Center”, https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2015/02/25/diplomacy-everywhere-microsoft-donates-cutting-edge-technology-to-bring-diplomacy-to-life-for-visitors-of-the-u-s-diplomacy-center/, erişim 11.05.2023.
• MICROSOFT (2023). “Makine öğretiminde ve pekiştirici öğrenmede konu uzmanlığını kullanma”, https://learn.microsoft.com/tr-tr/azure/ architecture/solution-ideas/articles/machine-teaching, erişim 11.05.2023.
• MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS OF DENMARK (2023). “The TechPlomacy Approach”, https://techamb.um.dk/the-techplomacy-approach, erişim 11.05.2023.
• PRINCETON UNIVERSITY (2023). “Plan A”, https://sgs.princeton.edu/the-lab/plan-a, erişim 11.05.2023.
• PRINCETON UNIVERSITY (2023). “Simulating Nuclear War”, https://sgs.princeton.edu/the-lab/simulating-nuclear-war, erişim 11.05.2023.
• REUTERS (2007). “Sweden first to open embassy in Second Life”, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sweden-secondlife-idUSL3034889320070530, erişim 11.05.2023.
• SECONDLIFE (2023). https://secondlife.com/, erişim 11.05.2023.
• THE NATIONAL MUSEUM OF AMERICAN DIPLOMACY (2023). “Diplomacy Simulations: Immerse students in the world of American Diplomacy”, https://diplomacy.state.gov/education/diplomacy-simulations/, erişim 11.05.2023.
• STEINBERG, J.B. O’HANLON, M.E., SUSAN E.R. (2002). “The New National Security Strategy and Preemption”, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/ the-new-national-security-strategy-and-preemption/, erişim 29.06.2023.
• THE UNITED STATES MILITARY ACADEMY (2023). “West Point Simulation Center”, https://www.westpoint.edu/military/department-of-military-instruction/simulation-center, erişim 11.05.2023.
• THE USA NATIONAL INITIATIVE FOR CYBERSECURITY EDUCATION (2020). “The Cyber Range: A Guide: Guidance Document for the Use Cases, Features, and Types of Cyber Ranges in Cybersecurity Education, Certification and Training”, https://www.nist.gov/system/files/documents/2020/06/25 /The%20Cyber%20Range%20-%20A%20Guide%20%28NIST-NICE%29%20% 28Draft%29%20-%20062420_1315.pdf, erişim 11.05.2023.
• THE USA NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL (Ekim 2002). “The National Security Strategy Chapter V. Prevent Our Enemies from Threatening Us, Our Allies, and Our Friends with Weapons of Mass Destruction” https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/nsc/nss/2002/nss5.html, erişim 11.05.2023.
• THE USA THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE (2023). “National Cyber Range”, https://www.peostri.army.mil/national-cyber-range-ncr, erişim 11.05.2023
• THE USA Virtual Embassy Iran, https://ir.usembassy.gov/, erişim 29.06.2023.