Rusya Dış Politikası’nın Etkin Silahı: Donmuş Çatışma Bölgeleri

Year 2017, Volume: 13 Issue: 26, 185 - 219, 30.10.2017

Göktürk Tüysüzoğlu

https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.356957

Cited By: 7

Abstract

Çok kutupluluk ekseninde bir uluslararası sistem oluşumunu arzulayan Rusya, böyle bir yapı içerisinde “küresel” bir güç olarak yer almak ve sistemin gidişatına yön veren temel aktörlerden biri olmayı istemektedir. Moskova, bunun gerçekleşebilmesi için, özelde eski Sovyet coğrafyası; genelde ise Avrasya’daki siyasal gelişmelere yön vermesi ve bu bölgede etkinliğini arttırması gerektiğinin farkındadır. Ne var ki, uzun süre SSCB’nin bir parçası olmuş ya da Doğu Bloğu içerisinde yer almış ve yeni bağımsız olmuş bölge ülkelerini bu kez Rusya adı altında kendi siyasal ve sistemsel çıkarlarına entegre etmek oldukça güçtür. Zira Rusya ekonomik, sosyal ve siyasal nedenlerle bölge halklarını/devletlerini rahatlıkla kendisine çekebilecek bir görünüme haiz değildir. Bu nedenle, Rusya’nın realist bir eksende hareket ederek, güvenlik ve enerji bağımlılığı odaklı hususları bölge ülkeleri nezdinde kullanmaya çalıştığını görüyoruz. Ne var ki, Rusya’nın özellikle son dönemde dış politikasına eklemlediği önemli bir husus daha bulunmaktadır. Moskova, yakın çevresinde yer alan ülkelerde etnik/dinsel kimlik bağlamında ortaya çıkan ve oluşumunda SSCB döneminde çizilen sınırların önemli rol oynadığı donmuş çatışma bölgelerini, bu ülkelerin dış politika yönelimlerini kendi çıkarları doğrultusunda manipüle edebilmek için kullanmaktadır. Hatta bu stratejinin, Kafkasya, Ukrayna ve Moldova özelinde “kendisi adına” olumlu sonuçlar doğurduğu da ortadadır.

Keywords

Yeni Avrasyacılık, çok kutupluluk, Etnik çatışma, Kırım, Abhazya

Effective Leverage of Russian Foreign Policy: Frozen Conflict Zones

Abstract

Desiring to form an international system depending on multipolarity, Russia wants to be one of the main actors to take part in such a structure as a “global” power. In order to achieve this aim, Moscow must direct and enhance its political effectiveness at the former Soviet geography. However, it is very difficult to integrate the newly independent countries that have long been a part of the USSR or the states which were in the Eastern Bloc, into political and systemic interests of Russia. The reason for this is that Russia cannot easily attract the people/states of the region for economic, social and political reasons. For this reason, we see Russia acting as a realistic actor, trying to use the security and energy dependency of the countries in the region. However, there is another important factor that Russia has recently attached to its foreign policy. Moscow uses the “frozen conflict zones” that arise in the context of ethnic/religious identity and in which the borders drawn during the USSR to manipulate the foreign policy orientations of these countries according to its own interest. It is also true that this strategy has positive consequences for Russia in the Caucasus, Ukraine and Moldova.

Keywords

Neo-Eurasianism, multipolarity, ethnic conflict, Crimea, Abkhazia, Transnistria

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