Türkiye’de Terörist Saldırıların Bölgesel İktisadi Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri

Year 2019, Volume: 15 Issue: 32, 605 - 630, 31.12.2019

Necmettin Çelik

https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.668173

Abstract

Dengeli ve sürdürülebilir bir iktisadi büyüme süreci, iktisadi açıdan olduğu kadar politik açıdan da istikrarlı bir yapı gerektirmektedir. Bu sebeple, kapsamlı bir analiz yapılabilmesi için terörizm gibi politik dinamiklerin de bölgesel büyüme üzerindeki etkileri analiz edilmelidir. Çalışmada, Türkiye’de politik istikrarsızlık boyutlarına ulaşan terör olaylarının bölgelerin büyüme performansı üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Bu doğrultuda, 2005-2014 dönemi ve Türkiye’nin İBBS-II Bölgelerini (26 Bölge) kapsayacak şekilde tasarlanan model, sistem GMM tahmincisine dayalı olarak tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye’de yaşanan terör olaylarının bölgelerin büyüme performansı üzerinde negatif yönlü ve istatistiksel açıdan anlamlı etkilerinin olduğunu göstermektedir. Diğer bir ifadeyle, Türkiye’nin sıklıkla güneydoğu bölgesinde yaklaşık 40 yıldır süregelen terörizm sorunu iktisadi büyümeyi baskılamaktadır. Modelin diğer bulguları ise, beşer sermaye birikiminden ziyade fiziki sermaye birikiminin bölgesel büyüme üzerinde pozitif yönlü ve anlamlı etkilerinin olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

Bölgesel İktisadi Büyüme, Terörizm, Türkiye, Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi

The Effects of Terrorist Attacks on Regional Economic Growth in Turkey

Abstract

The process of balanced and comprehensive regional growth requires political as well as economic stability. Therefore, the effects of political dynamics such as terrorism on regional growth should be investigated for a more comprehensive analysis. This study investigates the effects of terrorist events, which have reached the dimensions of political instability in Turkey, over the growth performance of the regions. In this context, the model has been designed to cover the 2005-2014 period and Turkey’s NUTS-II regions (26 regions) and has been estimated based on the GMM estimator. The obtained findings show the terror events experienced in Turkey to have a statistically significant negative effect on regions’ growth performance. In other words, the problem of terrorism, which has been a frequent ongoing problem in southeast Turkey for nearly 40 years, has hindered economic growth. The other findings of the model indicate the accumulation of physical capital to have positive and statistically significant effects on regional growth rather than the accumulation of human capital.

Keywords

Regional economic growth, Terrorism, Turkey, Dynamic panel data analysis

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