Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite

Geçmişe Dönüş: Batı Kriz Yönetiminden Nükleer Kuvvetler Dâhil Geniş Spektrumlu Caydırıcılığa mı Dönüyor?

Year 2022, Volume: 18 Issue: 42, 295 - 322, 26.08.2022
https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.1111697

Abstract

Soğuk Savaş yıllarında Batı, Sovyetler Birliği ve Varşova Paktı’nı caydırmaya ve kontrol altına almaya çalışmıştır. Bu caydırıcılık hem konvansiyonel hem de nükleer kuvvetlere dayanıyordu. Her iki taraf da karşılıklı imha kabiliyetine ulaştıktan sonra nükleer denge onları caydırdı. Soğuk Savaş sona erdiğinde, odak noktası caydırıcılık ve çevrelemeden kriz yönetimine geçti, çünkü uluslararası güvenlik ortamına iç çatışmalar, uluslararası terörizm, küresel suç ve mülteci krizleri gibi başarısız devletlerle ilgili sorunlar hâkim olmaya başlamıştı. Bu durum Doğu ve Batı Bloğu arasında konvansiyonel ve nükleer savaş riskinin azalmasına ve böylece tarafların savunma harcamalarında kesintiler yapmalarına neden oldu. Ancak Rusya’nın Kırım’ı ilhak etmesi ve ardında da Ukrayna’yı işgal etmesiyle bu güvenlik algısı değişti. Batı’nın Rusya’yı caydırmak için Doğu Avrupa’da konvansiyonel kuvvetler konuşlandırmak gibi son önlemleri, bir anlamda Soğuk Savaş dönemi zihniyetine benzemektedir. Bu kapsamda bu yazıda uluslararası güvenlik ortamındaki son gelişmeler Soğuk Savaş dönemi ile karşılaştırılarak incelenmiştir. Bu dönemde devletlerin savunma bütçelerini artırdıkları, kendi güvenliklerini sağlamak ve potansiyel saldırganları caydırmak için sert önlemler aldıkları da görülmektedir.

References

  • MEARSHEIMER John J., The tragedy of great power politics. WW Norton & Company, 2001.
  • MORGAN Patrick M., Applicability of traditional deterrence concepts and theory to the cyber realm. In Proceedings of a Workshop on Deterring Cyberattacks: Informing Strategies and Developing Options for U.S. Policy, National Academic Press, 2010.
  • ABM Treaty Fact Sheet, Statement by the Press Secretary Announcement of Withdrawal from the ABM treaty, https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2001/12/20011213-2.html (Accessed: 28 April 2022)
  • Aljazeera, Russia says it used hypersonic missiles in Ukraine again, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/20/russia-says-it-used-hypersonic-missiles-in-ukraine-for-second-day (Accessed: 24 April 2022)
  • Arms Control Association, (2022) “New Start at a Glance,” https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/NewSTART (Accessed: 10 March 2022). Arms Control Association, (2022) Nuclear Weapons: “Who Has What at a Glance,” https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat (Accessed: 17 April 2022).
  • Arms Control Association, (2017) “The Trillion (and a Half) Dollar Triad?” https://www.armscontrol.org/issue-briefs/2017-08/trillion-half-dollar-triad (Accessed: 10 February 2022).
  • BBC news (20 March 2014) “Ukraine's nuclear regret?” Anthony Zurcher Editor, Echo Chambers http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-echochambers-26676051 (Accessed: 15 February 2022). BBC News (11 July 2018) “Trump urges Nato members to double military funding target” https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44799027 (Accessed: 01 March 2022). Congressional Budget Office (May 2021) “Projected Cost of U.S Nuclear Forces, 2021 to 2030,” https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57240 (Accessed: 20 February 2022).
  • DALL’AGNOL, Augusto C.; CEPIK, Marco. The demise of the INF Treaty: a path dependence analysis. Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, 2021, 64. https://www.scielo.br/j/rbpi/a/B936G3SCBXHhpLktLX5f9GC/?lang=en (Accessed: 25 April 2022)
  • Deutsche Welle, (28.02.2022) “How serious are Vladimir Putin's nuclear threats?” https://www.dw.com/en/how-serious-are-vladimir-putins-nuclear-threats/a-60951577 (Accessed: 18 March 2022).
  • Financial Times (23 December 2016) Putin and Trump call for stronger nuclear forces” “https://www.ft.com/content/7e5c8ce0-c857-11e6-9043-7e34c07b46ef (Accessed: 26 February 2022).
  • FUKUYAMA Francis, “The End of History?”, The National Interest, 16, 3–18. 1989, http://www.jstor.org/stable/24027184 (Accessed: 15 March 2022).
  • HILDERT Steven A., EK Carl, (December 28, 2010) “Missile Defense and NATO's Lisbon Summit, CRS Report for Congress.” Congressional Research Service, http://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/CRS-Lisbon-Summit.pdf (Accessed: 20 February 2022).
  • JACOBS Peter and LOCKIE Alex, Trump touts US nuclear arsenal day after threatening ‘fire and fury’ on North Korea, Insider, https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-nuclear-arsenal-tweets-north-korea-2017-8
  • KIMBALL Daryl G., Biden Policy Allows First Use of Nuclear Weapons, Arms Control Association, https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2022-04/news/biden-policy-allows-first-use-nuclear-weapons (Accessed: 29 April 2022)
  • KIMBALL Daryl G., U.S Suspends CFE Treaty Implementation, Arms Control Association, https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2011-12/us-suspends-cfe-treaty-implementation (Accessed: 20 April 2022)
  • NATO WEB, “A short history of NATO,” https://www.nato.int/cps/su/natohq/declassified_139339.htm (Accessed: 20 February 2022).
  • NATO Web, Ballistic Missile Defence, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49635.htm (Accessed: 25 April 2022) NATO Web, Chicago Summit Declaration, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_87593.htm?selectedLocale=en
  • NATO Web, “NATO's nuclear deterrence policy and forces,” http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50068.htm?selectedLocale=en (Accessed: 13 February 2022).
  • NATO Web, “NATO Fact Sheet (July, 2016)” http://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2016_07/20160630_1607-factsheet-bmd-en.pdf (Accessed: 14 February 2022).
  • NATO Web, “NATO Chicago 2012 Summit Declaration”, http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_87593.htm?selectedLocale=en (Accessed: 08 February 2022).
  • NATO Web, “Funding NATO”, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_67655.htm (Accessed: 12 February 2022).
  • NATO Web, “NATO London Summit Declaration December 2019”, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_171584.htm (Accessed: 12 February 2022).
  • NATO Web, NATO Enhanced Forward Presence https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_136388.htm Accessed: 12 March 2022).
  • MORGAN Patrick M., (2012). The state of Deterrence in international politics today. “Contemporary Security Policy, 201233(1), 85-107.” https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/13523260.2012.659589 (Accessed: 12 February 2022).
  • Nuclear Threat Initiative, ABM Treaty, https://www.nti.org/education-center/treaties-and-regimes/treaty-limitation-anti-ballistic-missile-systems-abm-treaty/ (Accessed: 01 February 2022).
  • PIFER Steven, (December 4, 2014) “The Budapest Memorandum and U.S. Obligations”, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/12/04/the-budapest-memorandum-and-u-s-obligations/ (Accessed: 12 February 2022).
  • PIFER Steven, (2019), “Why care about Ukraine and the Budapest Memorandum”, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/12/05/why-care-about-ukraine-and-the-budapest-memorandum/ (Accessed: 17 February 2022).
  • SANDFORD Alasdair, BARBER Luke, NATO begins ‘biggest military drill since the end of Cold War’ https://www.euronews.com/2018/10/25/nato-begins-biggest-military-drills-since-end-of-cold-war (Accessed: 22 April 2022)
  • SHEAHAN Maria and MARSH Sarah, Germany to increase defence spending in response to ‘Putin’s war’-Scholz, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/germany-hike-defense-spending-scholz-says-further-policy-shift-20 22-02-27/
  • SEDDON Max, SEVASTOPULO Demetri, (23 December 2016), “Financial Times, Putin and Trump call for stronger nuclear forces”, https://www.ft.com/content/7e5c8ce0-c857-11e6-9043-7e34c07b46ef (Accessed: 20 February 2022).
  • SOKOL Lia, Russia’s Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile: A Game-Changing Weapon or a Distraction? Nuclear Treaty Initiative, https://www.nti.org/atomic-pulse/russias-kinzhal-hypersonic-missile-a-game-changing-weapon-or-a-distraction/ (Accessed: 24 April 2022)
  • WILCOX, Mark R. Russia and the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE Treaty)—A Paradigm Change?. The Journal of Slavic Military Studies, 2011, 24.4: 567-581. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13518046.2011.624456?casa_token=P9jkRaYhR60AAAAA%3AzdNM_fsMBfikOySy3INMk5HR4TbX3ixiUHUcKyc7Rxcvb-QK2u7Mjbx3zivzTPiKbIA3xpzeaWZi7g (Accessed: 29 April 2022)

Back to the Past: Is the West Moving from Crisis Management to Full-Spectrum Deterrence Including Nuclear Force?

Year 2022, Volume: 18 Issue: 42, 295 - 322, 26.08.2022
https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.1111697

Abstract

During the Cold War, the West tried to deter and contain the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact. This deterrence was based on both conventional and nuclear forces and various concepts and doctrines. After both sides achieved an assured destruction capability, deterrence was achieved by nuclear balance. Once the Cold War ended, the focus shifted from deterrence and containment to crisis management as the international security environment became dominated by internal conflicts, international terrorism, global crime, and problems related to failed states like refugee crises. This resulted in defence cuts as neither side expected a significant conventional and nuclear war. However, this security perception has changed after Russia annexed Crimea and then invaded Ukraine. Recent Western measures to deter Russia, such as deploying conventional forces to Eastern Europe, resemble the Cold War mentality. Accordingly, this paper examines recent developments in the international security environment compared to the Cold War era. It finds that states and alliances have increased their defence budgets and implemented harsh measures to ensure their security and deter potential aggressors.

References

  • MEARSHEIMER John J., The tragedy of great power politics. WW Norton & Company, 2001.
  • MORGAN Patrick M., Applicability of traditional deterrence concepts and theory to the cyber realm. In Proceedings of a Workshop on Deterring Cyberattacks: Informing Strategies and Developing Options for U.S. Policy, National Academic Press, 2010.
  • ABM Treaty Fact Sheet, Statement by the Press Secretary Announcement of Withdrawal from the ABM treaty, https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2001/12/20011213-2.html (Accessed: 28 April 2022)
  • Aljazeera, Russia says it used hypersonic missiles in Ukraine again, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/20/russia-says-it-used-hypersonic-missiles-in-ukraine-for-second-day (Accessed: 24 April 2022)
  • Arms Control Association, (2022) “New Start at a Glance,” https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/NewSTART (Accessed: 10 March 2022). Arms Control Association, (2022) Nuclear Weapons: “Who Has What at a Glance,” https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat (Accessed: 17 April 2022).
  • Arms Control Association, (2017) “The Trillion (and a Half) Dollar Triad?” https://www.armscontrol.org/issue-briefs/2017-08/trillion-half-dollar-triad (Accessed: 10 February 2022).
  • BBC news (20 March 2014) “Ukraine's nuclear regret?” Anthony Zurcher Editor, Echo Chambers http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-echochambers-26676051 (Accessed: 15 February 2022). BBC News (11 July 2018) “Trump urges Nato members to double military funding target” https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44799027 (Accessed: 01 March 2022). Congressional Budget Office (May 2021) “Projected Cost of U.S Nuclear Forces, 2021 to 2030,” https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57240 (Accessed: 20 February 2022).
  • DALL’AGNOL, Augusto C.; CEPIK, Marco. The demise of the INF Treaty: a path dependence analysis. Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, 2021, 64. https://www.scielo.br/j/rbpi/a/B936G3SCBXHhpLktLX5f9GC/?lang=en (Accessed: 25 April 2022)
  • Deutsche Welle, (28.02.2022) “How serious are Vladimir Putin's nuclear threats?” https://www.dw.com/en/how-serious-are-vladimir-putins-nuclear-threats/a-60951577 (Accessed: 18 March 2022).
  • Financial Times (23 December 2016) Putin and Trump call for stronger nuclear forces” “https://www.ft.com/content/7e5c8ce0-c857-11e6-9043-7e34c07b46ef (Accessed: 26 February 2022).
  • FUKUYAMA Francis, “The End of History?”, The National Interest, 16, 3–18. 1989, http://www.jstor.org/stable/24027184 (Accessed: 15 March 2022).
  • HILDERT Steven A., EK Carl, (December 28, 2010) “Missile Defense and NATO's Lisbon Summit, CRS Report for Congress.” Congressional Research Service, http://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/CRS-Lisbon-Summit.pdf (Accessed: 20 February 2022).
  • JACOBS Peter and LOCKIE Alex, Trump touts US nuclear arsenal day after threatening ‘fire and fury’ on North Korea, Insider, https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-nuclear-arsenal-tweets-north-korea-2017-8
  • KIMBALL Daryl G., Biden Policy Allows First Use of Nuclear Weapons, Arms Control Association, https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2022-04/news/biden-policy-allows-first-use-nuclear-weapons (Accessed: 29 April 2022)
  • KIMBALL Daryl G., U.S Suspends CFE Treaty Implementation, Arms Control Association, https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2011-12/us-suspends-cfe-treaty-implementation (Accessed: 20 April 2022)
  • NATO WEB, “A short history of NATO,” https://www.nato.int/cps/su/natohq/declassified_139339.htm (Accessed: 20 February 2022).
  • NATO Web, Ballistic Missile Defence, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49635.htm (Accessed: 25 April 2022) NATO Web, Chicago Summit Declaration, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_87593.htm?selectedLocale=en
  • NATO Web, “NATO's nuclear deterrence policy and forces,” http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50068.htm?selectedLocale=en (Accessed: 13 February 2022).
  • NATO Web, “NATO Fact Sheet (July, 2016)” http://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2016_07/20160630_1607-factsheet-bmd-en.pdf (Accessed: 14 February 2022).
  • NATO Web, “NATO Chicago 2012 Summit Declaration”, http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_87593.htm?selectedLocale=en (Accessed: 08 February 2022).
  • NATO Web, “Funding NATO”, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_67655.htm (Accessed: 12 February 2022).
  • NATO Web, “NATO London Summit Declaration December 2019”, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_171584.htm (Accessed: 12 February 2022).
  • NATO Web, NATO Enhanced Forward Presence https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_136388.htm Accessed: 12 March 2022).
  • MORGAN Patrick M., (2012). The state of Deterrence in international politics today. “Contemporary Security Policy, 201233(1), 85-107.” https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/13523260.2012.659589 (Accessed: 12 February 2022).
  • Nuclear Threat Initiative, ABM Treaty, https://www.nti.org/education-center/treaties-and-regimes/treaty-limitation-anti-ballistic-missile-systems-abm-treaty/ (Accessed: 01 February 2022).
  • PIFER Steven, (December 4, 2014) “The Budapest Memorandum and U.S. Obligations”, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/12/04/the-budapest-memorandum-and-u-s-obligations/ (Accessed: 12 February 2022).
  • PIFER Steven, (2019), “Why care about Ukraine and the Budapest Memorandum”, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/12/05/why-care-about-ukraine-and-the-budapest-memorandum/ (Accessed: 17 February 2022).
  • SANDFORD Alasdair, BARBER Luke, NATO begins ‘biggest military drill since the end of Cold War’ https://www.euronews.com/2018/10/25/nato-begins-biggest-military-drills-since-end-of-cold-war (Accessed: 22 April 2022)
  • SHEAHAN Maria and MARSH Sarah, Germany to increase defence spending in response to ‘Putin’s war’-Scholz, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/germany-hike-defense-spending-scholz-says-further-policy-shift-20 22-02-27/
  • SEDDON Max, SEVASTOPULO Demetri, (23 December 2016), “Financial Times, Putin and Trump call for stronger nuclear forces”, https://www.ft.com/content/7e5c8ce0-c857-11e6-9043-7e34c07b46ef (Accessed: 20 February 2022).
  • SOKOL Lia, Russia’s Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile: A Game-Changing Weapon or a Distraction? Nuclear Treaty Initiative, https://www.nti.org/atomic-pulse/russias-kinzhal-hypersonic-missile-a-game-changing-weapon-or-a-distraction/ (Accessed: 24 April 2022)
  • WILCOX, Mark R. Russia and the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE Treaty)—A Paradigm Change?. The Journal of Slavic Military Studies, 2011, 24.4: 567-581. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13518046.2011.624456?casa_token=P9jkRaYhR60AAAAA%3AzdNM_fsMBfikOySy3INMk5HR4TbX3ixiUHUcKyc7Rxcvb-QK2u7Mjbx3zivzTPiKbIA3xpzeaWZi7g (Accessed: 29 April 2022)
There are 32 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Suat Dönmez 0000-0002-9621-389X

Publication Date August 26, 2022
Submission Date April 30, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 18 Issue: 42

Cite

Chicago Dönmez, Suat. “Back to the Past: Is the West Moving from Crisis Management to Full-Spectrum Deterrence Including Nuclear Force?”. Güvenlik Stratejileri Dergisi 18, no. 42 (August 2022): 295-322. https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.1111697.