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Evaluation of 21st Century Threats in Maritime Security by AHP Method: The Case of Türkiye

Year 2023, Volume: 19 Issue: 44, 101 - 137, 27.04.2023
https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.1236313

Abstract

In the global political and economic agenda cycle of the 21st century, interest in the seas has spread rapidly. The security of maritime areas, which are central in issues such as transportation, global trade, natural resource reserves, and transfer, has also become a part of national and international security strategies, especially since the beginning of the 2000s. However, different perspectives on the concept of “maritime security” lead to the lack of a single definition of the concept. Therefore, the factors threatening the security in question should be mentioned differently. The absence of widely agreed upon maritime security threats both complicates global cooperation on maritime security and weakens the fight against these threats. Identifying the most serious and common threats to maritime security is essential for joint action in the fight against them. This study aims to carry out a comprehensive analysis in defining the concept of maritime security and to identify the most serious threats to maritime security in the 21st century. For this purpose, 21st-century maritime security threats have been determined within the scope of academic studies, strategy papers, military documents, and reports published by states and international organizations. Then, the severity levels of these threats were determined through the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) Method. As a result of the study, the three most important factors threatening maritime security in the 21st century are determined as climate change (with a significance level of 0.3169), marine pollution and environmental problems (with a significance level of 0.2104), and sea boundary disputes between states (with a severity level of 0.1783).

References

  • ABEYRATNE Ruwantissa (2010). “New and Emerging Threats to Maritime Security”, Asia Pacific Law Review, 18:2, 171-196.
  • BELHABİB Dyhia SUMAILA U. Rashid ve LE BILLON Philip (2019). “The Fisheries of Africa: Exploitation, Policy, and Maritime Security Trends”, Marine Policy, 101, 80-92.
  • BUEGER Christian (2015). “What is Maritime Security”, Marine Policy, 53, 159-164.
  • CHAPSOS Ioannis ve MALCOLM James A. (2017). “Maritime Security in Indonesia: Towards a Comprehensive Agenda?”, Marine Policy, 76, 178-184.
  • GERMOND Basil (2015). “The Geopolitical Dimension of Maritime Security”, Marine Policy, 54, 137-142.
  • GERMOND Basil ve WA HA Fong (2019). “Climate Change and Maritime Security Narrative: The Case of the International Maritime Organisation”, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 9, 1-12.
  • KARIM Md Saiful (2020). “Australia’s Engagement in the International Maritime Organisation For Indo-Pacific Maritime Security”, Ocean and Coastal Management, 185, 1-5.
  • MAZARIS Antonios D. (2017). “Manifestation of Maritime Piracy as an Additional Challenge for Global Conservation”, Marine Policy, 77, 171-175.
  • MAZARIS Antonios D. ve GERMOND Basil (2018). “Bridging the Gap Between Climate Change and Maritime Security: Towards A Comprehensive Framework for Planning”, Science of the Total Environment, 635, 1076-1080.
  • POMEROY Robert, Parks, John, Mrakovcich, Karina Lorenz ve LaMonica, Christopher (2016). “Drivers and Impacts of Fisheries Scarcity, Competition, and Conflict on Maritime Security”, Marine Policy, 67, 94-104.
  • REMUSS Nina-Louisa (2010). “Space and Maritime Security–Strategies for Countering the Pirates”, Space Policy, 26:2, 124-125.
  • ROACH J. Ashley (2004). “Initiatives to Enhance Maritime Security at Sea”, Marine Policy, 28, 41-66.
  • SAATY Thomas (1994). “How to Make a Decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process”, Interfaces, 24:6, 19-43.
  • SMOUT Scott Coffen ve HERBERT Glen J. (2000). “Submarine Cables: A Challenge for Ocean Management”, Marine Policy, 24, 441-448.
  • SUN Yue HAN Yang ZHANG Liangfu ve CHANG Yen-Chiang (2021). “The Construction and Governance of Regional Maritime Security Order in the South China Sea: Conference Report”, Marine Policy, 126, 1-6.
  • TUAN To Anh (2020). “Maritime Security in the Indo-Pacific: Mixed Opportunities and Challenges from Connectivity Strategies, Responding to the Geopolitics of Connectivity”, Responding to the Geoplolitics of Connectivity: Asian and European Perspectives, 125-137.
  • VIVERO Juan L. Suárez-de ve MATEOS Juan Carlos Rodríguez (2018). “Food Security as A Security Issue. A Perspective from Maritime Policy and Maritime Security Initiatives”, Ocean and Coastal Management, 153, 140-147.
  • VIVERO Juan L. Suárez-de MATEOS Juan C. Rodríguez DEL CORRAL David Florido BARRAGÁN, María José CALADO Helena KJELLEVOLD Marian ve MIASIK Ewelina Janowska (2019). “Food Security and Maritime Security: A New Challenge for the European Union’s Ocean Policy”, Marine Policy, 108, 1-11.
  • ZHENG Qian SHEN Shui-Long ZHOU Annan ve LYU Hai-Min (2022). “Inundation Risk Assessment Based on G-DEMATEL AHP and Its Application to Zhengzhou Flooding Disaster”, Sustainable Cities and Society, 86, 1-12.
  • ZHOU Xinyi HU Yong DENG, Yong CHAN Felix T. S. ve ISHIZAKA Alessio (2018). “A DEMATEL-Based Completion Method for Incomplete Pairwise Comparison Matrix in AHP”, Annals of Operations Research, 271:2, 1045–1066.
  • ZOGRAFOS Konstantinos G. DRIGGS Raul ve ZANAKIS Stelios (1997). “A Multicriteria Decision Making Method for Evaluating Alternative Transportation Projects”. IFAC Proceedings Volumes, 30:8, 137-143.
  • ABD (2005). “The National Strategy for Maritime Security”, https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=456414 erişim 02.10.2022. AFRICAN UNION (2012). “2050 Africa’s Integrated Maritime Strategy”, https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/11151/2050_aims_srategy.pdf, erişim 01.10.2022.
  • EUROPEAN UNION (2014). “European Union Maritime Security Strategy”, https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST%2011205%202014%20INIT/EN/pdf, erişim 01.10.2022.
  • FRANCE (2015). “National Strategy for the Security of Maritime Areas”, https://www.gouvernement.fr/sites/default/files/contenu/piece-jointe/2016/01/ strategie_nationale_de_surete_des_espaces_maritimes_en_national_strategy_for_the_security_of_maritime_areas.pdf, erişim 01.10.2022.
  • GERGİN Ramazan Eyüp, Peker, İskender, Baki, Birdoğan, Tuzkaya, Umut Rıfat ve Tanyas, Mehmet (2022). “Oilseed Warehouse Location Selection With an Integrated Approach: A Case of Turkey”, Kybernetes, https://doi.org/10.1108/K-10-2021-1072, erişim 15.11.2022.
  • GHOSH P.K. (2014). “The Indo-Pacific Region and the Rise of Transnational Maritime Threats and Challenges”, JSTOR, https://www.jstor.org/ stable/pdf/resrep10916.5.pdf, erişim 26.09.2022.
  • HASTINGS Justin V. ve Young Song Annie (2022). “The Maritime Security Fallout from North Korea’s Fisheries Policy”, Marine Policy, 136, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104915, erişim 20.10.2022.
  • IMO (2022). “Revised Strategic Plan for the Organization for the Six-Year Period 2018 to 2023”, https://wwwcdn.imo.org/localresources/en/About/strategy/ Documents/A%2032-Res.1149%20%20REVISED%20STRATEGIC%20 PLAN%20FOR%20THE%20ORGANIZATION%20FOR%20THE%20SIX-YEAR%20PERIOD%202018%20TO%202023.pdf erişim 28.10.2022.
  • INDIAN NAVY (2015). “Ensuring Secure Seas: Indian Maritime Security Strategy, https://www.indiannavy.nic.in/sites/default/files/Indian_Maritime_ Security_Strategy_Document_25Jan16.pdf, erişim 30.09.2022.
  • NATO (2011). “Alliance Maritime Strategy”, https://www.nato.int/nato_static/ assets/pdf/pdf_2011_03/20110318_alliance_maritime-strategy_CM_2011_23.pdf, erişim 01.10.2022.
  • NATO (2022). “NATO’s Maritime Activities”, https://www.nato.int/cps/ en/natohq/topics_70759.htm, erişim 02.10.2022.
  • STRATING Rebecca, Guilfoyle, Douglas, Ratuva, Steven ve Wallis, Joanne (2022). “Commentary: China in the Maritime Pacific”, Marine Policy, 141, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2022.105092, erişim 02.10.2022.
  • UNITED KINGDOM (2022). “National Strategy for Maritime Security”, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1100525/national-strategy-for-maritime-security-web-version.pdf, erişim 01.10.2022.

Deniz Güvenliğinde 21. Yüzyıl Tehditlerinin AHP Yöntemiyle Değerlendirilmesi

Year 2023, Volume: 19 Issue: 44, 101 - 137, 27.04.2023
https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.1236313

Abstract

21. yüzyılın küresel siyasi ve ekonomik gündem döngüsünde denizlere yönelik ilgi hızla yaygınlaşmıştır. Ulaşım, küresel ticaret, doğal kaynak rezervleri ve transferi gibi konularda merkezi konumda yer alan deniz alanlarının güvenliği de özellikle 2000’li yılların başından itibaren ulusal ve uluslararası güvenlik stratejilerinin önemli bir parçasını oluşturmaktadır. Ancak “deniz güvenliği” kavramına yönelik farklı bakış açıları, kavramın tek bir tanımının olmamasına dolayısıyla söz konusu güvenliği tehdit eden unsurların da farklı anılmasına yol açmaktadır. Deniz güvenliğini tehdit eden unsurlar üzerinde küresel ölçekte bir uzlaşının sağlanamaması, hem deniz güvenliği konusunda küresel ortaklık zemini oluşmasını engellemekte hem de bu tehditlerle mücadelenin zayıflamasına neden olmaktadır. Deniz güvenliğini tehdit eden en güçlü ortak tehdit unsurlarının belirlenmesi, bu tehditlerle mücadelede ortak hareket edilmesi açısından önemlidir. Bu çalışmanın amacı; deniz güvenliği kavramının tanımlanmasında kapsamlı bir analiz gerçekleştirmek ve 21. yüzyılda deniz güvenliğini tehdit eden en güçlü unsurları belirlemektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda 21. yüzyıl deniz güvenliği tehditleri; akademik çalışmalar, devletler ve uluslararası örgütler tarafından yayınlanan strateji belgeleri, askerî dokümanlar ve raporlar kapsamında belirlenmiştir. Daha sonra AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) Yöntemi aracılığıyla bu tehditlerin önem dereceleri tespit edilmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda 21. yüzyılda deniz güvenliğini tehdit eden en önemli ilk üç unsur sırasıyla; 0,3169 önem derecesiyle ile İklim Değişikliği, 0,2104 önem derecesiyle Deniz Kirliliği ve Çevre Sorunları ve 0,1783 önem derecesiyle Devletlerarasındaki Deniz Sınırı Anlaşmazlıkları olarak tespit edilmiştir.

References

  • ABEYRATNE Ruwantissa (2010). “New and Emerging Threats to Maritime Security”, Asia Pacific Law Review, 18:2, 171-196.
  • BELHABİB Dyhia SUMAILA U. Rashid ve LE BILLON Philip (2019). “The Fisheries of Africa: Exploitation, Policy, and Maritime Security Trends”, Marine Policy, 101, 80-92.
  • BUEGER Christian (2015). “What is Maritime Security”, Marine Policy, 53, 159-164.
  • CHAPSOS Ioannis ve MALCOLM James A. (2017). “Maritime Security in Indonesia: Towards a Comprehensive Agenda?”, Marine Policy, 76, 178-184.
  • GERMOND Basil (2015). “The Geopolitical Dimension of Maritime Security”, Marine Policy, 54, 137-142.
  • GERMOND Basil ve WA HA Fong (2019). “Climate Change and Maritime Security Narrative: The Case of the International Maritime Organisation”, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 9, 1-12.
  • KARIM Md Saiful (2020). “Australia’s Engagement in the International Maritime Organisation For Indo-Pacific Maritime Security”, Ocean and Coastal Management, 185, 1-5.
  • MAZARIS Antonios D. (2017). “Manifestation of Maritime Piracy as an Additional Challenge for Global Conservation”, Marine Policy, 77, 171-175.
  • MAZARIS Antonios D. ve GERMOND Basil (2018). “Bridging the Gap Between Climate Change and Maritime Security: Towards A Comprehensive Framework for Planning”, Science of the Total Environment, 635, 1076-1080.
  • POMEROY Robert, Parks, John, Mrakovcich, Karina Lorenz ve LaMonica, Christopher (2016). “Drivers and Impacts of Fisheries Scarcity, Competition, and Conflict on Maritime Security”, Marine Policy, 67, 94-104.
  • REMUSS Nina-Louisa (2010). “Space and Maritime Security–Strategies for Countering the Pirates”, Space Policy, 26:2, 124-125.
  • ROACH J. Ashley (2004). “Initiatives to Enhance Maritime Security at Sea”, Marine Policy, 28, 41-66.
  • SAATY Thomas (1994). “How to Make a Decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process”, Interfaces, 24:6, 19-43.
  • SMOUT Scott Coffen ve HERBERT Glen J. (2000). “Submarine Cables: A Challenge for Ocean Management”, Marine Policy, 24, 441-448.
  • SUN Yue HAN Yang ZHANG Liangfu ve CHANG Yen-Chiang (2021). “The Construction and Governance of Regional Maritime Security Order in the South China Sea: Conference Report”, Marine Policy, 126, 1-6.
  • TUAN To Anh (2020). “Maritime Security in the Indo-Pacific: Mixed Opportunities and Challenges from Connectivity Strategies, Responding to the Geopolitics of Connectivity”, Responding to the Geoplolitics of Connectivity: Asian and European Perspectives, 125-137.
  • VIVERO Juan L. Suárez-de ve MATEOS Juan Carlos Rodríguez (2018). “Food Security as A Security Issue. A Perspective from Maritime Policy and Maritime Security Initiatives”, Ocean and Coastal Management, 153, 140-147.
  • VIVERO Juan L. Suárez-de MATEOS Juan C. Rodríguez DEL CORRAL David Florido BARRAGÁN, María José CALADO Helena KJELLEVOLD Marian ve MIASIK Ewelina Janowska (2019). “Food Security and Maritime Security: A New Challenge for the European Union’s Ocean Policy”, Marine Policy, 108, 1-11.
  • ZHENG Qian SHEN Shui-Long ZHOU Annan ve LYU Hai-Min (2022). “Inundation Risk Assessment Based on G-DEMATEL AHP and Its Application to Zhengzhou Flooding Disaster”, Sustainable Cities and Society, 86, 1-12.
  • ZHOU Xinyi HU Yong DENG, Yong CHAN Felix T. S. ve ISHIZAKA Alessio (2018). “A DEMATEL-Based Completion Method for Incomplete Pairwise Comparison Matrix in AHP”, Annals of Operations Research, 271:2, 1045–1066.
  • ZOGRAFOS Konstantinos G. DRIGGS Raul ve ZANAKIS Stelios (1997). “A Multicriteria Decision Making Method for Evaluating Alternative Transportation Projects”. IFAC Proceedings Volumes, 30:8, 137-143.
  • ABD (2005). “The National Strategy for Maritime Security”, https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=456414 erişim 02.10.2022. AFRICAN UNION (2012). “2050 Africa’s Integrated Maritime Strategy”, https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/11151/2050_aims_srategy.pdf, erişim 01.10.2022.
  • EUROPEAN UNION (2014). “European Union Maritime Security Strategy”, https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST%2011205%202014%20INIT/EN/pdf, erişim 01.10.2022.
  • FRANCE (2015). “National Strategy for the Security of Maritime Areas”, https://www.gouvernement.fr/sites/default/files/contenu/piece-jointe/2016/01/ strategie_nationale_de_surete_des_espaces_maritimes_en_national_strategy_for_the_security_of_maritime_areas.pdf, erişim 01.10.2022.
  • GERGİN Ramazan Eyüp, Peker, İskender, Baki, Birdoğan, Tuzkaya, Umut Rıfat ve Tanyas, Mehmet (2022). “Oilseed Warehouse Location Selection With an Integrated Approach: A Case of Turkey”, Kybernetes, https://doi.org/10.1108/K-10-2021-1072, erişim 15.11.2022.
  • GHOSH P.K. (2014). “The Indo-Pacific Region and the Rise of Transnational Maritime Threats and Challenges”, JSTOR, https://www.jstor.org/ stable/pdf/resrep10916.5.pdf, erişim 26.09.2022.
  • HASTINGS Justin V. ve Young Song Annie (2022). “The Maritime Security Fallout from North Korea’s Fisheries Policy”, Marine Policy, 136, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104915, erişim 20.10.2022.
  • IMO (2022). “Revised Strategic Plan for the Organization for the Six-Year Period 2018 to 2023”, https://wwwcdn.imo.org/localresources/en/About/strategy/ Documents/A%2032-Res.1149%20%20REVISED%20STRATEGIC%20 PLAN%20FOR%20THE%20ORGANIZATION%20FOR%20THE%20SIX-YEAR%20PERIOD%202018%20TO%202023.pdf erişim 28.10.2022.
  • INDIAN NAVY (2015). “Ensuring Secure Seas: Indian Maritime Security Strategy, https://www.indiannavy.nic.in/sites/default/files/Indian_Maritime_ Security_Strategy_Document_25Jan16.pdf, erişim 30.09.2022.
  • NATO (2011). “Alliance Maritime Strategy”, https://www.nato.int/nato_static/ assets/pdf/pdf_2011_03/20110318_alliance_maritime-strategy_CM_2011_23.pdf, erişim 01.10.2022.
  • NATO (2022). “NATO’s Maritime Activities”, https://www.nato.int/cps/ en/natohq/topics_70759.htm, erişim 02.10.2022.
  • STRATING Rebecca, Guilfoyle, Douglas, Ratuva, Steven ve Wallis, Joanne (2022). “Commentary: China in the Maritime Pacific”, Marine Policy, 141, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2022.105092, erişim 02.10.2022.
  • UNITED KINGDOM (2022). “National Strategy for Maritime Security”, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1100525/national-strategy-for-maritime-security-web-version.pdf, erişim 01.10.2022.
There are 33 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Eda Tutak 0000-0002-8567-8106

Publication Date April 27, 2023
Submission Date January 16, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 19 Issue: 44

Cite

Chicago Tutak, Eda. “Deniz Güvenliğinde 21. Yüzyıl Tehditlerinin AHP Yöntemiyle Değerlendirilmesi”. Güvenlik Stratejileri Dergisi 19, no. 44 (April 2023): 101-37. https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.1236313.