Uluslararası Sistemde Hakim Güçlerin Rekabeti ve Afrika Boynuzu’nda ABD-Çin Karşılaşması (2012-2022)

Year 2024, Issue: War and International System, 41 - 64, 30.12.2024

Kaan Devecioğlu

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Güç Geçişi Teorisi (Power Transition Theory-PTT) çerçevesinde Afrika Boynuzu’nda Amerika Birleşik Devletleri (ABD) ile Çin arasındaki güç rekabetini incelemektedir. Çalışma, memnuniyetsizlik kavramından yararlanarak, üç ana hipotezi araştırmaktadır: 1) mevcut uluslararası sistemden memnun bir hâkim güç olarak ABD ve bundan memnun olmayan yükselen bir güç olarak Çin; 2) mevcut uluslararası sistemden memnun olmayan hakim bir güç olarak ABD ve bundan memnun yükselen bir güç olarak Çin; 3) mevcut uluslararası sistemden memnun olan ABD ve Çin. Bu hipotezler ele alınırken Çoklu Hiyerarşi Modeli’ne başvurulmaktadır. Çalışma teori testi aracılığıyla Afrika Boynuzu’ndaki bu rekabetin jeopolitik ve jeoekonomik etkilerini analiz etmekte ve askerî varlık, teknolojik altyapı, bölgesel anlaşmazlıklar ve ekonomik yatırımlara odaklanmaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular, Cibuti ve Babülmendep Boğazı’nın stratejik konumunun ABD-Çin rekabetinde nasıl kritik bir rol oynadığını ve bu konumun askerî stratejileri, telekomünikasyon projelerini ve bölgesel istikrar çabalarını nasıl etkilediğini ortaya koymaktadır. Çalışma hem ABD hem de Çin’in bir rekabet ve iş birliği karışımı içinde olduğu ve bunun da Afrika Boynuzu’nun siyasi ve ekonomik manzarası üzerinde önemli etkiler doğurduğu sonucuna varmaktadır. Bu analiz, stratejik açıdan hayati bir bölgede ABD-Çin ilişkilerinin karmaşık dinamiklerine dair ampirik bilgiler sunarak PTT literatürüne katkıda bulunmaktadır.

Keywords

Güç Geçişi Teorisi, ABD-Çin Rekabeti, Uluslararası Sistem, Afrika Boynuzu, Kızıldeniz

The Competition of Dominant Powers in the International System and the US-China Encounter in the Horn of Africa (2012-2022)

Abstract

This study examines the power competition between the United States (US) and China in the Horn of Africa within the framework of Power Transition Theory (PTT). Using the concept of dissatisfaction, the study explores three main hypotheses: 1) the US as a satisfied dominant power and China as a dissatisfied rising power; 2) the US as a dissatisfied dominant power and China as a satisfied rising power; and 3) both actors being satisfied with the current international system. The Multiple Hierarchy Model is also applied when arguing these hypotheses. Through theorytesting process tracing, the study analyzes the geopolitical and geoeconomic implications of the competition in the Horn of Africa, focusing on military presence, technological infrastructure, regional disputes, and economic investments. The findings highlight how the strategic location of Djibouti and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait plays a critical role in the US-China rivalry, influencing military strategies, telecommunications projects, and regional stability efforts. The study concludes that both the US and China engage in a mix of competition and cooperation, with significant impacts on the Horn of Africa’s political and economic landscape. This nuanced analysis contributes to the literature on PTT by providing empirical insights into the complex dynamics of US-China relations in a strategically vital region.

Keywords

Power Transition Theory, US-China Rivalry, International System, Horn of Africa, Red Sea

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