Uluslararası Sistemin Değişen Güç Dinamikleri Karşısında Askerî Doktrinleri Adapte Etmek: Charles Kupchan’ın Analizleri Çerçevesinde Tek Kutupluluğun Ötesine Bakışlar

Year 2024, Issue: War and International System, 65 - 89, 30.12.2024

Erhan Büyükakıncı

Abstract

Soğuk Savaş dönemi sonunda iki kutuplu sistemin sona ermesiyle dünya düzeni ABD’nin öncülüğündeki tek kutuplu bir döneme geçmişti, ancak 11 Eylül saldırıları sonrasında asimetrik tehditlerin ve aktör çeşitliliğinin artmasıyla bu istikrar süreci yerini belirsizliklere ve çok vektörlü tartışmalara bırakmıştır. Charles Kupchan’ın çalışmaları farklı sistem dönüşümlerini daha yapısalcı bakış açılarıyla incelemektedir. Bu çalışmamızda devletlerin sürekli dönüşen sistem dengeleri karşısında askerî doktrinlerini ve stratejilerini nasıl belirlediklerini analiz etmek istiyoruz. Kupchan’ın tartıştığı analitik çerçeve kapsamında askerî doktrinlerin uluslararası sistem değişkenlerine nasıl uyarlandığını ele almak çabasındayız. Bölgeselcilikten ittifak oluşumlarına, tehdit algılamalarından aktör çeşitliğine değin birçok faktör burada söz konusudur. Kupchan’ın ileri sürdüğü “Hiç Kimsenin Dünyası” savı çok kutuplu düzenin karmaşık yapısı çerçevesinde devletlerin stratejik önceliklerinin belirlerken hangi fırsatlar ve çelişkiler karşısında kaldıkları sorunsalını tartışmaktadır ve bu da makalemizin ana çıkış noktasını oluşturmaktadır.

Keywords

Charles Kupchan, Askerî Doktrinler, Uluslararası Sistem, Çok Kutupluluk, Güçler Dengesi

Adapting Military Doctrines to Shifting Power Dynamics in the International System: Looking Beyond Unipolarity through the Analyses of Charles Kupchan

Abstract

With the end of the bipolar system at the end of the Cold War, the world order shifted to a unipolar era led by the United States (US). However, with the increase in asymmetric threats and diversity of actors in the aftermath of the 11 September attacks, this stabilization process has given way to uncertainties and multi-vector debates. Charles Kupchan’s work analyses different system transformations from a more structuralist perspective. This article aims to analyze how states determine their military doctrines and strategies in the face of constantly transforming system balances. Within the analytical framework discussed by Kupchan, it is possible to discuss how military doctrines are adapted to the variables of the international system. Many factors are at play here, from regionalism to alliance formations and threat perceptions to actors’ diversity. Kupchan’s “No One’s World” argument leads us to the problem of the opportunities and contradictions that states face in determining their strategic priorities within the framework of the complex structure of the multipolar order, which is this article’s main starting point.

Keywords

Charles Kupchan, Military Doctrines, International System, Multipolarity, Balance of Power

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