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The Future of Iran’s Security Strategy after the Collapse of the Shiite Crescent

Year 2025, Volume: 21 Issue: 51, 177 - 201, 25.08.2025
https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.1642961

Abstract

Iran has adopted a geostrategy called the Shiite Crescent in the Middle East due to its perception of regional and international threats. The implementation of the Shiite Crescent has utilized Iran’s state-level alliances and non-state actors in the target geography. However, the developments in 2024 have put an end to Iran’s strategy. While Hamas lost serious power in Palestine, Hezbollah suffered a heavy blow in Lebanon, and the Assad regime was overthrown in Syria, Iran’s inability to take any step that could change this process has resulted in a significant loss of credibility for Iran. All these developments have created a strategic gap for Iranian security. As a result, it has become easier for Iran to be targeted by attacks from Israel and the US, which it defines as enemies, and a 12-day war broke out when Israel attacked Iran in June 2025. In this context, the study examines Iran’s threat perception and its security strategy against these threats with historical integrity and seeks to answer the question of how Iran’s security strategy will take shape in the future. Since Iran’s future security strategies will be an effective factor in regional and international security, it is important to contribute to the literature on this subject. The study concludes that Iran will focus on strengthening its reputation, rebuilding the Shiite Crescent, developing air defense and attack systems, and accelerating its deterrence activities.

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Şii Hilali’nin Çöküşü Sonrasında İran’ın Güvenlik Stratejisinin Geleceği

Year 2025, Volume: 21 Issue: 51, 177 - 201, 25.08.2025
https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.1642961

Abstract

İran, bölgesel ve uluslararası düzeyden kaynaklanan tehdit algılaması nedeniyle Ortadoğu’da Şii Hilali olarak adlandırılan bir jeostrateji benimsemiştir. Şii Hilali’ni hayata geçirmek için devlet düzeyindeki ittifaklarını ve hedef coğrafyadaki devlet dışı aktörleri kullanmıştır. Ancak 2024 yılındaki gelişmeler İran’ın bu stratejisini çökertmiştir. Filistin’de Hamas ciddi güç kaybetmiş, Lübnan’da Hizbullah ağır darbe almış, Suriye’de Esad rejimi devrilmiş ve bu süreci değiştirebilecek ölçüde bir adım atamaması İran için önemli itibar kaybı meydana getirmiştir. Tüm bu gelişmeler İran güvenliği için stratejik bir boşluk meydana getirmiştir. Bunun sonucunda düşman olarak tanımladığı İsrail ve ABD’nin saldırılarına hedef olması kolaylaşmış ve Haziran 2025’te İsrail’in saldırmasıyla 12 gün süren bir savaş yaşanmıştır. Bu doğrultuda, çalışmada İran’ın tehdit algısı ve bunlar karşısında geliştirdiği güvenlik stratejisi tarihsel bir bütünlük ile ele alınarak İran güvenlik stratejisinin gelecekte nasıl şekilleneceği sorusuna cevap aranmıştır. İran’ın önümüzdeki yıllarda ortaya koyacağı güvenlik stratejileri hem bölgesel güvenlik hem de uluslararası güvenlik açısından etkili bir dinamik olacağı için bu alanda literatüre katkı sağlamak önem arz etmektedir. Çalışmanın sonucunda İran’ın itibarını kuvvetlendirmeye, Şii Hilali’ni yeniden inşa etmeye, hava savunma ve saldırı sistemlerini geliştirmeye ve caydırıcılık kazanma faaliyetlerini hızlandırmaya odaklanacağı çıkarımlarına varılmıştır.

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There are 80 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects International Security
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Mehmet Ali Yuksel 0000-0002-4187-2695

Publication Date August 25, 2025
Submission Date February 19, 2025
Acceptance Date August 20, 2025
Published in Issue Year 2025 Volume: 21 Issue: 51

Cite

Chicago Yuksel, Mehmet Ali. “Şii Hilali’nin Çöküşü Sonrasında İran’ın Güvenlik Stratejisinin Geleceği”. Güvenlik Stratejileri Dergisi 21, no. 51 (August 2025): 177-201. https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.1642961.