Climate change will increase the habitat suitability of Bidens frondosa L. in Türkiye: Implications for future invasion and management

Year 2025, Volume: 29 Issue: 3, 529 - 548, 24.09.2025

Shahid Farooq

https://doi.org/10.29050/harranziraat.1740997

Abstract

Bidens frondosa (Devil’s beggarticks) is an invasive plant species originating from North America, which poses significant ecological and economic risks across its introduced range. The species is present in Türkiye; however, its future spread has not been modeled yet. Therefore, this study predicted habitat suitability for B. frondosa in Türkiye under current and future climate scenarios utilizing the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. The mode was trained and tested using 7,646 occurrence records and 8 environmental variables. The model predicted the habitat suitability with high accuracy (AUC = >0.9). The model predicted that moisture availability in the driest quarter will be the critical determinant of habitat suitability under current and future climatic conditions. Model projected that B. frondosa could colonize 56% of Türkiye’s terrestrial area under current climate with significant suitable habitats located in the northern and western areas of the country. Future climate predictions indicate that the species will extend its distribution range, especially under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario, with a predicted movement towards the eastern and southern regions of the country. The findings highlight potential ecological consequences of B. frondosa invasion, especially its competition with native plant species and its risk to agriculture. Proactive management techniques, including climate-smart invasive species eradication, are crucial to minimize projected expansion and preserve Türkiye’s biodiversity and agricultural economy.

Keywords

Bidens frondosa , Climate change , Habitat suitability modeling , Invasive species , Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model

Türkiye’de Bidens frondosa L.’nın iklim değişikliğine bağlı artan dağılımı: Gelecekteki istila ve yönetim için çıkarımlar

Abstract

.Bidens frondosa (Devil’s beggarticks), Kuzey Amerika kökenli bir istilacı bitki olup taşındığı bölgelerde önemli ekolojik ve ekonomik riskler oluşturmaktadır. Bu tür Türkiye’den rapor edilmiş; ancak gelecekteki potansiyel yayılımı henüz modellenmemiştir. Bu nedenle, mevcut çalışmada, Maksimum Entropi (MaxEnt) modeli kullanarak mevcut ve gelecekteki iklim senaryoları altında Türkiye’de B. frondosa’nın potansiyel habitat uygunluğu tahmin edilmiştir. Model, 7.646 varlık kayıtları ve 8 çevresel değişken kullanılarak eğitilmiş ve test edilmiştir. Model, habitat uygunluğunu yüksek doğrulukla tahmin etmiştir (AUC = >0.9). Ayrıca, en kuru çeyrekteki nem miktarının, mevcut ve gelecekteki iklim koşulları altında habitat uygunluğunun belirleyici faktörü olacağı öngörülmüştür. Model, B. frondosa’nın mevcut iklim altında Türkiye’nin kara yüzey alanının %92’sini kolonize edebileceğini ve ülkenin kuzey ve batı bölgelerinde önemli uygun habitatların bulunduğunu tahmin etmiştir. Gelecekteki iklim tahminleri, türün, özellikle yüksek emisyon senaryosu (SSP5-8.5) altında, doğu ve güney bölgelerine doğru yayılacağını göstermektedir. Bulgular, B. frondosa istilasının ekolojik sonuçlarını, özellikle yerli bitki türleriyle olan rekabetini ve tarım üzerindeki risklerini vurgulamaktadır. İstilacı türlerin iklim dostu yönetimi gibi proaktif yönetim teknikleri, öngörülen yayılımı en aza indirmek ve Türkiye’nin biyolojik çeşitliliğini ve tarım ekonomisini korumak için büyük önem taşımaktadır.

Keywords

Bidens frondosa , İklim değişikliği , Habitat uygunluk modeli , İstilacı türler , Maksimum Entropi (MaxEnt) modeli

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