Iran: being a nuclear threshold state within a national resistance context

Abstract

For almost four decades, Iran's foreign policy rhetoric and actions have drawn the attention of the international community. Iran acquired a leadership role in the advocacy of oppressed people against oppressors after the 1979 Revolution. In this direction, it has exhibited two-pronged foreign policy behaviour over the years. One is the axis of resistance politics, and the second is the advancement of a nuclear program. The Iranian-led coalition network known as the ‘Axis of Resistance’ includes Shiite paramilitary groups in Iraq, the Syrian Ba'ath regime, Palestinian resistance organizations, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Since the USA adopted the 'Axis of Evil’ rhetoric against Iran in 2002, Iran has simultaneously deepened its relations with the axis of resistance in the face of this pressure and has advanced its nuclear activities, which has transformed it into a nuclear threshold state. In this article, we argue that these two main foreign policy activities are inseparable and they are ultimately the consequence of Iran's adopted national role, i.e., the leader of the oppressed. Therefore, we discuss that with its resistance to the pressures relevant to the nuclear program, Iran intends to give a clear message to the proxies on the axis of resistance. We applied role theory on the relationship between the axis of resistance concept and nuclear policy to contribute to the prominent foreign policy debates over Iran's two inseparable foreign policy behaviours.

Keywords

• Iran
• nuclear threshold
• axis of resistance
• national role conception
• role theory.

İran: ulusal direniş bağlamında nükleer eşik devleti olmak

Abstract

İran İslam Cumhuriyeti’nin dış politika söylem ve eylemleri kırk yılı aşkın bir süredir uluslararası toplumun odak noktasıdır. İran, 1979 İslam Devrimi sonrasında yeni bir rol üstlenmiştir; bu da ezenlerin karşısında ezilenlerin savunuculuğunu yapmaktır. Bu doğrultuda, İran yıllar içinde dış politikasında iki davranışı ön plana çıkarmıştır. Bunlardan biri, direniş ekseni siyaseti, ikincisi ise nükleer programın geliştirilmesidir. Direniş ekseni, Filistin direniş örgütleri, Lübnan Hizbullahı, Suriye'deki Esad rejimi ve Irak'taki Şii paramiliter grupları içeren İran liderliğindeki ittifak ağı için kullanılan ifadedir. ABD'nin 2002 yılında İran'a karşı 'şer ekseni' söylemini benimsemesinden bu yana, İran bu baskı karşısında eş zamanlı olarak direniş ekseni olarak tanımladığı vekillerle ilişkilerini derinleştirmiş ve eş zamanlı olarak nükleer faaliyetlerini ilerletmiş, bu da onu nükleer eşik devleti yapmıştır. Bu makalede, İran’ın devrimden bu yana öne çıkardığı iki ana dış politika davranışının birbirinden ayrılmaz olduğu ve bunun temel sebebinin de İran'ın benimsediği ulusal rolün, yani mazlumların liderliği rolü olduğu iddia edilmektedir. Dolayısıyla bu çalışmada, İran'ın nükleer programıyla ilgili baskılara direnmek suretiyle direniş eksenindeki vekillerine net bir mesaj vermek amacında olduğunu tartışılmaktadır. Bu bağlamda İran'ın direniş ekseni siyaseti ve nükleer politikası arasındaki ilişki, rol teorisi üzerinden ele alınmıştır.

Keywords

• İran
• nükleer eşik
• direniş ekseni
• ulusal rol kavramı
• rol teorisi.

References

1. Malici, A. and Walker, S. G. (2016). Role theory and role conflict in US-Iran relations: Enemies of our own making. Routledge
2. Alcaro, R. and Dessì, A. (2019). A Last Line of Defence: A Strategy for Europe to Preserve the Iran Nuclear Deal. Retrieved from: https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep19684
3. Amour, P. O. (Ed.). (2020). The Regional Order in the Gulf Region and the Middle East. Switzerland: Palgrave Millan
4. Barnett, M. (1993). Institutions, roles, and disorder: The case of the Arab states system. International studies quarterly, 37(3), 271-296. doi: 10.2307/2600809
5. Berg, R. and Bateman, T. (2022). Biden: US prepared to use force to stop Iran getting nuclear arms. BBC. Retrieved from: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-62155165
6. Breuning, M. (1995). Words and deeds: Foreign assistance rhetoric and policy behavior in the Netherlands, Belgium, and the United Kingdom. International Studies Quarterly, 39(2), 235-254. doi: 10.2307/2600848
7. Breuning, M. (2011). Role theory research in international relations: state of the art and blind spots. S. Harnisch, C. Frank, H. W. Maull (Ed.), in Role theory in international relations (p. 32-51). New York: Routledge
8. Chafetz, G., Abramson, H., and Grillot, S. (1996). Role theory and foreign policy: Belarussian and Ukrainian compliance with the nuclear non-proliferation regime. Political Psychology, 17(4), 727-757. doi:10.2307/3792136

9. Clapper, J.R. (2014). US Intelligence Community Worldwide Threat Assessment: Statement for the Record Retrieved from: https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Intelligence%20Reports/2014%20WWTA%20%20SFR_SSCI_29_Jan.pdf
10. Cohen, S.P. (1998). Nuclear Weapons and Conflict in South Asia. Retrieved from: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/nuclear-weapons-and-conflict-in-south-asia/
11. Davenport, K. (2022). IAEA Reports Signal Escalating Nuclear Crisis with Iran. Arms Control Association. Retrieved from: https://www.armscontrol.org/blog/2022-06-01/iaea-reports-signal-escalating-nuclear-crisis-with-Iran
12. Fuhrmann, M. and Tkach, B. (2015). Almost nuclear: Introducing the Nuclear Latency dataset. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 32(4), 443-461. Retrieved from: https://www.jstor.org/stable/26271400
13. Futter, A. (2021). The Politics of Nuclear Weapons. London: Palgrave Macmillan
14. Galili, L. (2007, October 11). Putin: Nuclear Iran is strategic threat to Russia. Haaretz. Retrieved from: https://www.haaretz.com/2007-10-11/ty-article/putin-nuclear-iran-is-strategic-threat-to-russia/0000017f-e8b2-df5f-a17f-fbfeda0e0000
15. Harnisch, S. (2011). Role theory: operationalization of key concepts. S. Harnisch, C. Frank, and H. W. Maull (Ed.), in Role theory in international relations (p.7-11). New York: Routledge
16. Hermann, M. G. (1987). Assessing the foreign policy role orientations of sub-Saharan African leaders. In S. Walker (Ed.), in Role Theory and Foreign Policy Analysis (p.161-198). Durham: Duke University Press
17. Holsti, J. K. (1970). National Role Conceptions in the Study of Foreign Policy. International Studies Quarterly, 14(4), 233-309. Retrieved from: https://www.jstor.org/stable/3013584
18. ICAN. (2020). Enough is Enough: Global Nuclear Weapons Spending 2019. Retrieved from: https://www.icanw.org/global_nuclear_weapons_spending_2020
19. Iran Chamber Society. (2002). Iranian Laws and Government. Retrieved from: https://www.iranchamber.com/government/laws/constitution_ch10.php
20. Juneau, T. (2015). Squandered Opportunity: Neoclassical Realism and Iran’s Foreign Policy. California: Stanford University Press
21. Juneau, T. and Razavi, S. (2018). Costly gains: a cost-benefit assessment of Iran’s nuclear program. The Nonproliferation Review, 25(1), 69-86. doi: 10.1080/10736700.2018.1477456
22. Karmon, E. (2008). Iran-Syria-Hizballah-Hamas: A coalition against nature: Why does it work. National Intelligence University, 1(5). Retrieved from: https://www.ict.org.il/Article.aspx?ID=1033#gsc.tab=0
23. Karsh, E. (2014). The Iran–Iraq War 1980–1988. London: Bloomsbury Publishing.
24. Khamenei, A. (2015). Leader's letter to President Rouhani regarding the JCPOA. Retrieved from: https://english.khamenei.ir/news/2336/Leader-s-letter-to-President-Rouhani-regarding-the-JCPOA
25. Khamenei, A. (2016a). Without a Doubt, Islam is a Demolisher of Oppression and Arrogance. Retrieved from: https://english.khamenei.ir/news/3871/Without-a-doubt-Islam-is-a-demolisher-of-oppression-and-arrogance
26. Khamenei, A. (2016b). Beyanat der Didar-ı Hanevade hay-ı Şuheday-ı Mudafi-i Harem (Statements in a group meeting with the families of the martyrs who defended the shrine), Retrieved from: https://farsi.khamenei.ir/speech-content?id=32186
27. Khamenei, A. (2017). The Enemy Wants to Take Away Iran’s Deterrent Power, Ayatollah Khamenei. Retrieved from: http://english.khamenei.ir/news/4807/The-enemy-wants-to-take-away-Iran-s-deterrent-power-Ayatollah
28. Kissinger, H. (2012). Iran must be President Obama’s immediate priority. The Washington Post. Retrieved from: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-iran-must-be-president-obamas-immediate-priority/2012/11/16/2edf93e4-2dea-11e2-beb2-4b4cf5087636_story.html
29. Koç, M. (2017). İran’da Direniş Ekonomisinin Genel Politikaları. Retrieved from Center for Iranian Studies website: https://iramcenter.org//d_hbanaliz/iranda-direnis-ekonomisinin-genel-politikalari.pdf
30. Lavoy, P. (2002). The Costs of Nuclear Weapons in South Asia. In D.R. SarDesai & R.G. C. Thomas (Ed.), Nuclear India in the Twenty First Century (p. 259-276). New York (NY): Palgrave Macmillan
31. Le Prestre, P. (1997). Defining Foreign Policy Roles after the Cold War. in P. G. Le Prestre (Ed.), Role Quests in the Post-Cold War Era (p.3-14). Montreal: McGill- Queen's University Press
32. Levitt, M. (2021). Hezbollah’s regional activities in support of Iran’s proxy networks. Retrieved from Middle East Institute website: https://www.mei.edu/publications/hezbollahs-regional-activities-support-irans-proxy-networks
33. Loschky, J. (2013). Most Iranian Says Sanctions Hurting Their Livelihoods. Gallup. Retrieved from: https://news.gallup.com/poll/165743/iranians-say-sanctions-hurting-livelihoods.aspx
34. Mian, Z. (2020). Assuring the Destruction Forever: 2020 Edition. Retrieved from: https://reachingcriticalwill.org/resources/publications-and-research/publications/14711-assuring-destruction-forever-2020-edition
35. Mousavian, S. H. and Mousavian, M. M. (2018). Building on the Iran nuclear deal for international peace and security. Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, 1(1), 169-192. doi: 10.1080/25751654.2017.1420373
36. Neakrase, S. (2021). The Global Nuclear Security Architecture: Closing Gaps to Build Greater Assurance, Accountability, and Action. Retrieved from: https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/the-global-nuclear-security-architecture-closing-gaps-to-build-greater-assurance-accountability-and-action/
37. Obama, B. (2016). The Historic Deal that Will Prevent Iran From Acquiring a Nuclear Weapon. Retrieved from: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/issues/foreign-policy/iran-deal
38. Parsi, T. (2017). Losing an Enemy: Obama, Iran, and the Triumph of Diplomacy. New Haven: Yale University Press.
39. Rosenau, J.N. (1990). Turbulence in world politics: A theory of change and continuity. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
40. Rublee, M.R. (2010). The Nuclear Threshold States: Challenges and Opportunities Posed by Brazil and Japan. Nonproliferation Review, 17(1), 49-70. doi: 10.1080/10736700903484660
41. Sadjadpour, K. (2004). Iranians Don’t Want to Go Nuclear. The Washington Post. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2004/02/03/iranians-dont-want-to-go-nuclear/d6cb9c36-9c82-41cd-904f-12f6fd9d8221/
42. Sharma, S.K. (1995). The IAEA and the UN family: Networks of nuclear co-operation. Retrieved from: https://www.iaea.org/publications/magazines/bulletin/37-3/iaea-and-un-family-networks-nuclear-co-operation
43. Shih, C.Y. (1988). National role conception as foreign policy motivation: The psycho-cultural bases of Chinese diplomacy. Political Psychology, 9(4), 599-631. doi: 10.2307/3791530
44. Siddiqa, A. (2021). On Iran and China, Pakistan Still Needs A. Q. Khan, Nuclear Hero and Pariah. Haaretz. Retrieved from: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2021-11-07/ty-article-opinion/on-iran-and-china-pakistan-still-needs-a-q-khan-nuclear-hero-and-pariah/0000017f-e346-d9aa-afff-fb5e11ef0000
45. Sinkaya, B. (2015). The Revolutionary Guards in Iranian Politics: Elites and Shifting Relations. London: Routledge.
46. Sirjani, F.S. (2013). Iran’s Nuclear Fatwa. Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs, 4(2),57-80.Retrieved from: https://ciaotest.cc.columbia.edu/journals/irfa/v4i2/f_0029607_23960.pdf
47. Smeltz, D., and Farmanesh, A. (2020). Majority of Iranians Oppose Development of Nuclear Weapons. Retrieved from https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/research/public-opinion-survey/majority-iranians-oppose-development-nuclear-weapons
48. Soltaninejad, M. (2019). Coalition-Building in Iran’s Foreign Policy: Understanding the ‘Axis of Resistance’. Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 21(6), 1-16. doi:10.1080/19448953.2018.1506295
49. Thies, C.G. (2012). International socialization processes vs. Israeli national role conceptions: Can role theory integrate IR theory and foreign policy analysis?. Foreign Policy Analysis, 8(1), 25-46. doi:10.1111/j.1743-8594.2011.00170.x
50. Uzun, E. (2018). The axis of resistance the role of religion in Iranian foreign policy (Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation). Sabancı University, Institute of Social Sciences, İstanbul.
51. Vaez, A. (2021). Iran unlikely to consider crossing nuclear weapons threshold unless attacked. [Podcast]. Retrieved from: https://www.al-monitor.com/podcasts/iran-unlikely-consider-crossing-nuclear-weapons-threshold-unless-attacked-says-ali-vaez
52. Washington Post (2002). Text of President Bush's 2002 State of the Union Address. Retrieved from: https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/onpolitics/transcripts/sou012902.htm
53. Wish, N.B. (1980). Foreign policy makers and their national role conceptions. International Studies Quarterly, 24(4), 532-554. doi:10.2307/2600291