Research on the dynamic relationship between industrial structure adjustment and the development level of modern logistics industry

Abstract

In this paper we select the time series data of Jiangxi province of China in 1985-2014, and construct VECM model to analyze the influence of industrial structure adjustment on the development of modern logistics industry in Jiangxi province of China. The study has found that there is a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between the development level of logistics industry and the three industries in Jiangxi Province and each additional 1% of the primary industry accounted for the proportion of GDP, will cause the development level of the logistics industry increased by 1.445%, each additional 1% of the second and third industry upgrade rate, will promote the development of the logistics industry increased by 11.508% and 4.166%. We draw a conclusion that in the short term, there is a dynamic non-equilibrium relationship between the development level of logistics industry and industrial structure in Jiangxi Province, and the existence of error correction mechanism makes the non-equilibrium state in the short term tend to be balanced in the long run. The proportion of the added value of the first and second industries is the unidirectional Granger reason of the development level of the logistics industry in Jiangxi Province. In addition, the contribution rate of the first and second industries to the development level of logistics industry in Jiangxi province is larger, while the variance contribution rate of the third industry is small. Finally, this paper gives the corresponding policy recommendations.

Keywords

• Industrial structure adjustment,modern logistics,VECM model

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