TÜRKİYE'DE PETROL FİYATLARININ SANAYİ ÜRETİM ENDEKSİ VE İŞSİZLİK ORANI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ
Year 2020,
, 847 - 867, 28.12.2020
Asiye Tütüncü
,
Şükran Kahveci
Abstract
Bu çalışmada, üretim için önemli bir girdi olan enerjinin fiyatında meydana gelen değişimin Türkiye’nin üretim ve istihdam düzeyine etkisinin incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu kapsamda, petrol fiyatları ile sanayi üretim endeksi ve işsizlik arasındaki ilişki simetrik, asimetrik ve zamanla değişen nedensellik testleri kullanılarak Türkiye ekonomisi için 2006: 1 – 2018: 12 aylık veri seti yardımıyla sınanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, petrol fiyatlarının sanayi üretim endeksi ve işsizliği etkilediğini göstermektedir. Ancak petrol fiyatlarının sanayi üretim endeksine etkisinin işsizliğe kıyasla daha güçlü olduğu tespit edilmiştir.
References
- Adıgüzel, U., S. Kayhan, T. Bayat (2016), “Petrol Fiyatları ve Döviz Kuru Arasındaki İlişkinin Ampirik Analizi: Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi”, Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 17(2), 241-252.
- Ahmad, F. (2013), “The Effect of Oil Prices on Unemployment: Evidence from Pakistan”, Business and Economics Research Journal, 4(1), 43-57.
- Apergis, N., A. Aslan, G.C. Aye, R. Gupta (2015), “The Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price on Growth across US States”, Energy Exploration & Exploitation, 33(4), 575-590.
- Ayadı, F.O. (2005), “Oil Prices Fluctuations and the Nigerian Economy”, OPEC Review, 10, 199-217.
- Balcilar, M.Z., A. Ozdemir, Y. Arslanturk (2010), “Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Causal nexus Viewed through a Bootstrap Rolling Window”, Energy Economics, 32, 1398-1410.
- Balke, N.S., S.P. Brown, M.K. Yücel (2002), “Oil Price Shocks and the US Economy: Where does the Asymmetry Originate?”, The Energy Journal, 27-52.
- Brown, S.P. M.K. Yücel (2002), “Energy Prices and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Interpretative Survey”, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 42(2), 193-208.
- Chang, Y., J.F. Wong. (2003), “Oil Price Fluctuations and Singapore Economy”, Energy Policy, 31(11), 1151-1165.
- Cologni, A., M. Manera (2009), “The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov–Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries”, Economic Modelling, 26(1), 1-29.
- Cuestas, J.C. (2016), “The Impact of Supply Shocks on Unemployment in Spain”, Economics and Business Letters, 5(4), 107-112.
- Dickey, D.A.. W.A. Fuller (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 49(4), 1057-1072.
- Erkan, B., M. Şentürk, Y.E. Akbaş, T. Bayat (2011), “Uluslararası Ham Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Volatilitenin İşsizlik Göstergeleri Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği Üzerine Ampirik Bulgular”, Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 10(2), 715-730.
- Gözen, M.C. (2016), “Petrol Fiyatları Değişimindeki Belirsizliğin Sanayi Üretimi Üzerine Etkileri”, Atılım Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(1), 89-103.
- Hacker, R.S., A. Hatemi-J (2006), “Tests for Causality between Integrated Variables Using Asymptotic and Bootstrap Distributions: Theory and Application”, Applied Economics, 38(13), 1489-1500.
- Hamilton, J.D. (1983), “Oil and the Macro Economy since World War II”, Journal of Political Economy, 91, 228-248.
- Hatemi-J,A. (2012), “Asymmetric Causality Tests with an Application”, Empir Econ, 43, 447-456.
- Hooker, M.A. (1996), “What Happened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship?”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 38, 195-213.
- ITC, (2020), https://www.trademap.org/, E.T.: 12.09.2020.
- Kumar, S. (2005), “The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Empirical Evidence for India”, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=900285, E.T.: 25.09.2019.
- Lee, J., M.C. Strazicich (2003), “Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
- Mork, K.A. (1989), “Oil and the Macroeconomy When Prices Go up and down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results”, Journal of political Economy, 97(3), 740-744.
- Morry J.F. (1993), “Oil Prices and Economic Activity: Is the Relationship Symmetric?”, The Energy Journal, 14(4), 151-161.
- Mussa, M. (2000), “The Impact of Higher Oil Prices on the Global Economy”, International Monetary Fund, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/oil/2000/, E.T.: 25.09.2019.
- Öge G., P. M. Hasanov, (2013). The Effects of Oil Prices Changes on Output Growth and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 5(11), 730-739.
- Öksüzler, O., E. İpek (2011), “Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Değişimin Büyüme ve Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(14), 15-34.
- Özdemir, S., I. Akgül (2015), “Ham Petrol ve Benzin Fiyatlarının Sanayi Üretimine Etkisi: MS-VAR Modelleri ile Analizi”, Ege Akademik Bakış, 15(3), 367-378.
- Özsağır, A., B. Erkan, M. Şentürk, O. Kara, (2011), “Ham Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Volatilitenin Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla Büyümesi Üzerindeki Etkileri”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 18(1), 19-28.
- Perron, P. (1989), “The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Econometrica, 57, 1361-1401.
- Pesaran, M.H., A. Timmermann (2005), “Small Sample Properties of Forecasts from Autoregressive Models under Structural Breaks”, Journal of Econometrics, 129, 183–217.
- Phillips, P.C.B., P. Perron (1988), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression” Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
- Senzangakhona, P., I. Choga (2015), “Crude Oil Prices and Unemployment in South Africa: 1990–2010”, Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 6(2), 407-414.
- Sinan O.B (2018), “Türkiye’de İşsizlik Oranları ile Uluslararası Petrol Fiyatları İlişkisi: 1980-2016”, Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 3(4), 681-695.
- Syzdykova, A. (2017), “BRIC Ülkelerinde Petrol Fiyat Değişimleri ve Cari İşlemler Dengesi İlişkisi”, Uluslararası Yönetim ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 4(8), 25-38.
- TMMOB, (2018), “Türkiye’nin Enerji Görünümü”, https://www .mmo.org.tr/sit es/default/files/Ene rjiGorunumu2018_1.pdf, E.T.: 25.09.2019.
- Toda, H.Y., T. Yamamoto (1995), “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possbly Integrated Process”, Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
- Torul, O., C.E. Alper (2010), “Asymmetric Effects of Oil Prices on the Manufacturing Sector in Turkey”, Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 6(1), 90-105.
- Trang, T.N.T., T.N. Tho, D.T.T. Hong (2017), “The Impact of Oil Price on the Growth, Inflation, Unemployment and Budget Deficit of Vietnam”, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 7(3), 42-49.
- Uri, N.D. (1996), “Crude Oil Price Volatility and Unemployment in the United States”, Energy, 21(1), 29-38.
- WDI, (2020), https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.IMP.CONS.ZS, E.T.: 12.09.2020.
- World Bank (2019), https://data.worldbank.org/country, E.T.: 22.6.2019.
- Yardımcıoğlu, F., F. Beşel (2013) “İşsizlik – Petrol Fiyatları İlişkisi: Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye Örneği (1980-2012)”, Turkish Studies, 8(8), 2197-2211.
- Yardimcioğlu, F., A. Gülmez (2013), “OPEC Ülkelerinde Hollanda Hastalığı: Petrol Fiyatları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Ekonometrik Bir Analizi”, Sosyoekonomi, 19(1), 117-140.
- Yaylalı, M., F. Lebe (2012), “İthal Ham Petrol Fiyatlarının Türkiye’deki Makroekonomik Aktiviteler Üzerindeki Etkisi” Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 32(1), 43-68.
- Yung, Y. C., A. Das (2018), “Asymmetric Effects of the WTI Crude Oil Price on Unemployment Rates: A Comparative Study of Canadian Provinces and the United States”, OPEC Energy Review, 42(2), 123-150.
- Zivot, E., D.W.K. Andrews (1992), “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(1), 25-44.
THE EFFECT OF OIL PRICES ON INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN TURKEY
Year 2020,
, 847 - 867, 28.12.2020
Asiye Tütüncü
,
Şükran Kahveci
Abstract
In this study, it is aimed to study the effect of changes occurring in the price of energy that is an important input for production on Turkey's production and employment levels. In this context, relationships between oil prices and the industrial production index, oil prices and unemployment is tested using symmetrical, asymetric and time varying causality test for 2006: 1 - 2018: 12 month period. According to the findings, oil prices have an effect on the industrial production index and unemployment. However, it has been found that the impact of oil prices on the industrial production index is stronger than unemployment.
References
- Adıgüzel, U., S. Kayhan, T. Bayat (2016), “Petrol Fiyatları ve Döviz Kuru Arasındaki İlişkinin Ampirik Analizi: Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi”, Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 17(2), 241-252.
- Ahmad, F. (2013), “The Effect of Oil Prices on Unemployment: Evidence from Pakistan”, Business and Economics Research Journal, 4(1), 43-57.
- Apergis, N., A. Aslan, G.C. Aye, R. Gupta (2015), “The Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price on Growth across US States”, Energy Exploration & Exploitation, 33(4), 575-590.
- Ayadı, F.O. (2005), “Oil Prices Fluctuations and the Nigerian Economy”, OPEC Review, 10, 199-217.
- Balcilar, M.Z., A. Ozdemir, Y. Arslanturk (2010), “Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Causal nexus Viewed through a Bootstrap Rolling Window”, Energy Economics, 32, 1398-1410.
- Balke, N.S., S.P. Brown, M.K. Yücel (2002), “Oil Price Shocks and the US Economy: Where does the Asymmetry Originate?”, The Energy Journal, 27-52.
- Brown, S.P. M.K. Yücel (2002), “Energy Prices and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Interpretative Survey”, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 42(2), 193-208.
- Chang, Y., J.F. Wong. (2003), “Oil Price Fluctuations and Singapore Economy”, Energy Policy, 31(11), 1151-1165.
- Cologni, A., M. Manera (2009), “The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov–Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries”, Economic Modelling, 26(1), 1-29.
- Cuestas, J.C. (2016), “The Impact of Supply Shocks on Unemployment in Spain”, Economics and Business Letters, 5(4), 107-112.
- Dickey, D.A.. W.A. Fuller (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 49(4), 1057-1072.
- Erkan, B., M. Şentürk, Y.E. Akbaş, T. Bayat (2011), “Uluslararası Ham Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Volatilitenin İşsizlik Göstergeleri Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği Üzerine Ampirik Bulgular”, Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 10(2), 715-730.
- Gözen, M.C. (2016), “Petrol Fiyatları Değişimindeki Belirsizliğin Sanayi Üretimi Üzerine Etkileri”, Atılım Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(1), 89-103.
- Hacker, R.S., A. Hatemi-J (2006), “Tests for Causality between Integrated Variables Using Asymptotic and Bootstrap Distributions: Theory and Application”, Applied Economics, 38(13), 1489-1500.
- Hamilton, J.D. (1983), “Oil and the Macro Economy since World War II”, Journal of Political Economy, 91, 228-248.
- Hatemi-J,A. (2012), “Asymmetric Causality Tests with an Application”, Empir Econ, 43, 447-456.
- Hooker, M.A. (1996), “What Happened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship?”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 38, 195-213.
- ITC, (2020), https://www.trademap.org/, E.T.: 12.09.2020.
- Kumar, S. (2005), “The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Empirical Evidence for India”, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=900285, E.T.: 25.09.2019.
- Lee, J., M.C. Strazicich (2003), “Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
- Mork, K.A. (1989), “Oil and the Macroeconomy When Prices Go up and down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results”, Journal of political Economy, 97(3), 740-744.
- Morry J.F. (1993), “Oil Prices and Economic Activity: Is the Relationship Symmetric?”, The Energy Journal, 14(4), 151-161.
- Mussa, M. (2000), “The Impact of Higher Oil Prices on the Global Economy”, International Monetary Fund, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/oil/2000/, E.T.: 25.09.2019.
- Öge G., P. M. Hasanov, (2013). The Effects of Oil Prices Changes on Output Growth and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 5(11), 730-739.
- Öksüzler, O., E. İpek (2011), “Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Değişimin Büyüme ve Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(14), 15-34.
- Özdemir, S., I. Akgül (2015), “Ham Petrol ve Benzin Fiyatlarının Sanayi Üretimine Etkisi: MS-VAR Modelleri ile Analizi”, Ege Akademik Bakış, 15(3), 367-378.
- Özsağır, A., B. Erkan, M. Şentürk, O. Kara, (2011), “Ham Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Volatilitenin Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla Büyümesi Üzerindeki Etkileri”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 18(1), 19-28.
- Perron, P. (1989), “The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Econometrica, 57, 1361-1401.
- Pesaran, M.H., A. Timmermann (2005), “Small Sample Properties of Forecasts from Autoregressive Models under Structural Breaks”, Journal of Econometrics, 129, 183–217.
- Phillips, P.C.B., P. Perron (1988), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression” Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
- Senzangakhona, P., I. Choga (2015), “Crude Oil Prices and Unemployment in South Africa: 1990–2010”, Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 6(2), 407-414.
- Sinan O.B (2018), “Türkiye’de İşsizlik Oranları ile Uluslararası Petrol Fiyatları İlişkisi: 1980-2016”, Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 3(4), 681-695.
- Syzdykova, A. (2017), “BRIC Ülkelerinde Petrol Fiyat Değişimleri ve Cari İşlemler Dengesi İlişkisi”, Uluslararası Yönetim ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 4(8), 25-38.
- TMMOB, (2018), “Türkiye’nin Enerji Görünümü”, https://www .mmo.org.tr/sit es/default/files/Ene rjiGorunumu2018_1.pdf, E.T.: 25.09.2019.
- Toda, H.Y., T. Yamamoto (1995), “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possbly Integrated Process”, Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
- Torul, O., C.E. Alper (2010), “Asymmetric Effects of Oil Prices on the Manufacturing Sector in Turkey”, Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 6(1), 90-105.
- Trang, T.N.T., T.N. Tho, D.T.T. Hong (2017), “The Impact of Oil Price on the Growth, Inflation, Unemployment and Budget Deficit of Vietnam”, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 7(3), 42-49.
- Uri, N.D. (1996), “Crude Oil Price Volatility and Unemployment in the United States”, Energy, 21(1), 29-38.
- WDI, (2020), https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.IMP.CONS.ZS, E.T.: 12.09.2020.
- World Bank (2019), https://data.worldbank.org/country, E.T.: 22.6.2019.
- Yardımcıoğlu, F., F. Beşel (2013) “İşsizlik – Petrol Fiyatları İlişkisi: Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye Örneği (1980-2012)”, Turkish Studies, 8(8), 2197-2211.
- Yardimcioğlu, F., A. Gülmez (2013), “OPEC Ülkelerinde Hollanda Hastalığı: Petrol Fiyatları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Ekonometrik Bir Analizi”, Sosyoekonomi, 19(1), 117-140.
- Yaylalı, M., F. Lebe (2012), “İthal Ham Petrol Fiyatlarının Türkiye’deki Makroekonomik Aktiviteler Üzerindeki Etkisi” Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 32(1), 43-68.
- Yung, Y. C., A. Das (2018), “Asymmetric Effects of the WTI Crude Oil Price on Unemployment Rates: A Comparative Study of Canadian Provinces and the United States”, OPEC Energy Review, 42(2), 123-150.
- Zivot, E., D.W.K. Andrews (1992), “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(1), 25-44.