THE IMPACT OF SYRIAN CONFLICT AND THE REFUGEE CRISIS ON LABOUR MARKET OUTCOMES OF HOST COUNTRIES

Year 2021, , 633 - 661, 29.12.2021

Eleftherios Gıovanıs , Oznur Ozdamar

https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.852509

Cited By: 1

Abstract

The civil war in Syria, which started in March of 2011, has led to a massive influx of forced migration, especially from Northern Syria to the neighbouring countries. The unexpected movement of refugees has created large exogenous labour supply shocks with potentially significant effects on the labour and living standard outcomes of natives in the host countries. Using a difference-in-differences (DID) framework, this study explores the impact of Syrian refugees on labour market outcomes in Jordan and Turkey. Furthermore, we implement an instrumental variables (IV) approach within the DID framework. The results are mixed and vary, not only across the labour outcomes explored but also across demographic and socio-economic groups, as females and low educated are mainly affected by the refugee crisis negatively. Main policy implications include the design and implementation of active labour market policies, necessary measures to address the employment in the formal sector, encouraging the private sector to employ Syrian refugees in sectors where migrant workers would like to work and natives are not willing to work. Other policies include the implementation of realistic scenarios to integrate the refugees in the domestic labour market that will be beneficial for the domestic economy. Furthermore, national governments and authorities should maximize the job creation potential by collaborating with international actors. School enrollment for refugees' children and granting formal work permits to their parents are other policies that may affect natives and refugees positively.

Keywords

Difference-in-Differences, Instrumental Variables, Syrian Refugees, Wages, Unemployment, Forced Migration

Supporting Institution

1. Marie Skłodowska-Curie Action 2236 Co-Funded Brain Circulation Scheme2 (CoCirculation2) of TÜBİTAK 2. Economic Research Forum

Project Number

1. Project No: 119C017 2. The Micro-Level Analysis of the Impact of Violent Conflict on Lives and Livelihoods in the MENA Region

Thanks

Funding: This paper has been produced benefiting from the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Action 2236 Co-Funded Brain Circulation Scheme2 (CoCirculation2) of TÜBİTAK (Project No: 119C017), which has been funded under the FP7-PEOPLE-2011-COFUND call of the 7th Framework Programme. The authors are grateful for the financial support received. However, the entire responsibility of the paper belongs to the owners of the paper. The financial support received from the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK) does not mean that the context of the paper is approved in a scientific sense by TÜBİTAK. Furthermore, this work was sponsored by the Economic Research Forum (ERF) and has benefited from both financial and intellectual support under the Project “The Micro-Level Analysis of the Impact of Violent Conflict on Lives and Livelihoods in the MENA Region”. The contents and recommendations do not necessarily reflect ERF’s views. The authors are grateful for the financial support received.

SURİYE'DEKİ ÇATIŞMALAR VE MÜLTECİ KRİZİNİN EV SAHİBİ ÜLKELERİN İŞGÜCÜ PİYASASI GÖSTERGELERİ ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ

Abstract

2011 yılı Mart ayında başlayan Suriye iç savaşı, özellikle Suriye’nin kuzeyinden komşu ülkelere doğru zorunlu bir göç akınının yaşanmasına neden olmuştur. Bu beklenmeyen göç hareketi, göç edilen ev sahibi ülkelerin vatandaşlarının yaşam standardı ve işgücü piyasası göstergeleri üzerinde etkiler bırakan dışsal işgücü arz şokları yaratmıştır. Bu çalışma Farkların-Farkı (FF) yöntemini kullanarak Suriyeli mültecilerin Türkiye ve Ürdün’de işgücü piyasası göstergeleri üzerine etkisini incelemektedir. İlave olarak, araç değişkeni (AD) yaklaşımı FF yöntemi içerisine dahil edilerek uygulanmıştır. Sonuçlar incelenen her bir işgücü piyasası göstergesi açısından değişmekte olup, demografik ve sosyo-ekonomik gruplar açısından da farklılaşmaktadır. Örneğin kadınlar ve az eğitimli bireyler mülteci krizinin negatif etkiler yarattığı gruplardır. Aktif işgücü politikalarının tasarım ve uygulanması, kayıtlı istihdamın sağlanması noktasında gerekli önlemlerin alınması, ülke vatandaşlarının çalışmayı tercih etmediği ama göçmenlerin çalışmak istediği özel sektör kollarında Suriyeli mültecilerin çalışması başlıca politika uygulamaları arasında sayılabilir. Bir diğer politika önerisi ülke ekonomisine fayda sağlayacak şekilde işgücü piyasasındaki göçmenlerin entegrasyonuna yönelik gerçekçi uygulamaların geliştirilmesidir. Göç alan ülke hükümetlerinin uluslararası aktörlerle iş birliği halinde istihdam yaratma potansiyellerini artırmaları da önemlidir. Göç alan ülke vatandaşları ve mültecileri pozitif yönde etkileyen bir diğer politika önerisi mülteci çocukların formel eğitim almaları ve ebeveynlerine kanuni çalışma izinlerinin sağlanmasıdır.

Keywords

Farkların Farkı Yöntemi, Zorunlu Göç, Araç Değişkenleri, Suriyeli Mülteciler, Ücretler, İşsizlik

Project Number

1. Project No: 119C017 2. The Micro-Level Analysis of the Impact of Violent Conflict on Lives and Livelihoods in the MENA Region

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