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Risk Averse Decision Models for Resilient Supplier Selection

Year 2016, Volume: 34 Issue: 2, 53 - 78, 23.06.2016
https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.259133

Abstract

Decision models provided by this study aim to help managers to find remedies to devastating supply chain disruptions that could be caused by a mismatch between volatile customer demand and unreliable supply. We considered the newsvendor problem where the firm has more than one suppliers who are not necessarily reliable. We have provided a range of decision models with risk neutral and risk averse objective functions. The model uses scenarios to represent uncertain events (specifying customer demand and supplier reliability). Linear Programming formulations are provided which can be easily solved using commercially available software. A sample numerical study is also carried out to provide valuable managerial insights for optimal sourcing behaviors of risk averse and risk neutral firms. In the numerical study, expected profit, CVaR and Mean Excess Regret models are selected for evaluation.  

References

  • Agrawal, N., S. Nahmias (1997), “Rationalization of the Supplier Base in the Presence of Yield Uncertainty”, Production and Operations Management, (6), 291–308.
  • Anupindi, R., R. Akella (1993), “Diversification under Supply Uncertainty”, Management Science, 39(8), 944–963.
  • Artzner, P., F. Delbaen, J.M. Eber, D. Heath (1999), “Coherent Measures of Risk”, Mathematical Finance, 9, 203–28.
  • Axsäter, S. (2006), Inventory Control, (2nd ed.), Springer, New York.
  • Burke, G.J., J.E. Carrillo, A.J. Vakharia (2007), “Single versus Multiple Supplier Sourcing Strategies”, European Journal of Operational Research, 182(1), 95-112.
  • Burke, G.J., J.E. Carrillo, A.J. Vakharia (2009), “Sourcing Decisions with Stochastic Supplier Reliability and Stochastic Demand”, Production and Operations Management, 18(4), 475-484.
  • Chen, G., M. Daskin, M. Shen, S. Uryasev (2007), “The α Reliable Mean-Excess Regret Model for Stochastic Facility Location Modeling”, Naval Research Logistics, 53, 617-626.
  • Christopher, M., H. Peck (2004), “Building the Resilient Supply Chain”, International Journal of Logistics Management, 15(2).
  • Daskin, M.S., S.M. Hesse, C.S. Revelle (1997), “α-Reliable p-minimax Regret: A New Model for Strategic Facility Location Modeling”, Location Science, 5(4), 227-246.
  • Elmaghraby, W.J. (2000), “Supply Contract Competition and Sourcing Policies”, Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, 2(4), 350–371.
  • Gallego, G., I. Moon (1993), “The Distribution Free Newsboy Problem: Review and Extension”, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 44(8), 825–834.
  • Gotoh, J., Y. Takano (2007), “Newsvendor Solutions via Conditional Value- at-risk Minimization”, European Journal of Operational Research, 179(1), 80–96.
  • Hochreiter, R., G.C. Pflug (2007), “Financial Scenario Generation for Stochastic Multi-stage Decision Processes as Facility Location Problems”, Annals of Operations Research, 152(1), 257–272.
  • Jammernegg, W., P. Kischka (2012), “Newsvendor problems with VaR and CVaR consideration,” T.M. Choi (ed.), Handbook on Newsvendor Problems: Models, Extensions and Applications, Springer-New York, 197-216.
  • Khouja, M. (1999), “The Single-period (news-vendor) Problem: Literature Review and Suggestions for Future Research”, Omega, 27(5), 537–553.
  • Kleywegt, A.J., A. Shapiro, T. Homem-de Mello (2001), “The Sample Average Approximation Method for Stochastic Discrete Optimization”, SIAM Journal on Optimization, 12, 479-502.
  • Lau, H.S. (1980), “The Newsboy Problem under Alternative Optimization Objectives”, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 31, 525–35.
  • Lee, H.L. (2002) “Aligning Supply Chain Strategies with Product Uncertainties”, California Management Review, 44(3):105–119.
  • Markowitz, H.M. (1952), “Portfolio Selection”, The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77–91.
  • Merzifonluoglu, Y., Y. Feng (2014), “Newsvendor Problem with Multiple Unreliable Suppliers” International Journal of Production Research, 52 (1), 221-242.
  • Merzifonluoglu, Y. (2015) “Impact of Risk Aversion and Backup Supplier on Sourcing Decision of a Firm”, International Journal of Production Research, available online.
  • Minner, S. (2003), “Multiple-supplier Inventory Models in Supply Chain Management: A Review”, International Journal of Production Economics, 81-82, 265–279.
  • Nishiguchi, T., A. Beaudet (1998), “Case study: The Toyota Group and the Aisin fire”, Sloan Management Revıew, 40(1), 49–59.
  • Ogryczak, W., A. Ruszczy´nski (2002), “Dual Stochastic Dominance and Related Mean–risk Models”, SIAM Journal on Optimization, 13, 60–78.
  • Pflug, G. Ch. (2000), “Some Remarks on the Value-at-Risk and the Conditional Value-at-Risk”, S. Uryasev (ed.), Probabilistic Constrained Optimization: Methodology and Applications. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 272–281.
  • Qin, Y., R. Wang, A.J. Vakharia, Y. Chen, M.M.H. Seref (2011), “The Newsvendor Problem: Review and Directions for Future Research”, European Journal of Operational Research, 213 (2), 361–374.
  • Sawik, T. (2011), “Selection of Supply Portfolio under Disruption Risks”, Omega: The International Journal of Management Science, 39 194–208.
  • Snyder, L.V., M.S. Daskin (2007), “Models for Reliable Supply Chain Network Design”, A.T. Murray, T. Grubesic (eds.), Critical Infrastructure: Reliability and Vulnerability, Advances in Spatial Science, Springer, New York, 257–290.
  • Snyder, L.V., M.S. Daskin (2006), “Stochastic p-Robust Location Problems”, IIE Transactions, 38(11), 971-985.
  • Treece, J. (1997), “Just-too-much Single-sourcing Spurs Toyota Purchasing Review: Maker Seeks at least 2 Suppliers for each Part”, Automotive News, (March 3) 3.
  • Wang C.X., S.Webster (2009), “The Loss-averse Newsvendor Problem”, Omega, 37(1), 93–105
  • Wu, J., Li J., S. Wang, T.C.E. Cheng (2009), “Mean-variance Analysis of the Newsvendor Problem with Stockout Cost”, Omega, 37(3), 724–30.

TEDARİKÇİ SEÇİMİ İÇİN RİSK GÖZETEN KARAR MODELLERİ

Year 2016, Volume: 34 Issue: 2, 53 - 78, 23.06.2016
https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.259133

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı arz
talep dengesizliğinden dolayı tedarik zincirinde oluşacabilecek kesintilerin
yıkıcı etkilerini azaltmak için karar modelleri sunmaktır. Bu çalışmada birden
çok güvenilir olmayan tedarikçisi olan “Gazeteci” problemi ele alınmıştır. Risk
gözeten ve risk karşıtı farklı modeller sunulmuştur. Gelecekteki tüketici
talebi ve tedarikçi güvenilirliği senaryolarla belirlenmiştir. Problemler
optimizasyon amaçlı yazılımlarla kolayca çözülebilen “Doğrusal Programlama”
yöntemi ile modellenmiştir. Yöneticilere tedarikçi seçimlerinde yol gösterici
stratejiler üretmek amacı ile örnek bir sayısal çalışma da yapılmıştır. Bu
sayısal çalışmada ortalama kar, CVaR ve ortalama artık pişmanlık yöntemleri
uygulanmıştır.

References

  • Agrawal, N., S. Nahmias (1997), “Rationalization of the Supplier Base in the Presence of Yield Uncertainty”, Production and Operations Management, (6), 291–308.
  • Anupindi, R., R. Akella (1993), “Diversification under Supply Uncertainty”, Management Science, 39(8), 944–963.
  • Artzner, P., F. Delbaen, J.M. Eber, D. Heath (1999), “Coherent Measures of Risk”, Mathematical Finance, 9, 203–28.
  • Axsäter, S. (2006), Inventory Control, (2nd ed.), Springer, New York.
  • Burke, G.J., J.E. Carrillo, A.J. Vakharia (2007), “Single versus Multiple Supplier Sourcing Strategies”, European Journal of Operational Research, 182(1), 95-112.
  • Burke, G.J., J.E. Carrillo, A.J. Vakharia (2009), “Sourcing Decisions with Stochastic Supplier Reliability and Stochastic Demand”, Production and Operations Management, 18(4), 475-484.
  • Chen, G., M. Daskin, M. Shen, S. Uryasev (2007), “The α Reliable Mean-Excess Regret Model for Stochastic Facility Location Modeling”, Naval Research Logistics, 53, 617-626.
  • Christopher, M., H. Peck (2004), “Building the Resilient Supply Chain”, International Journal of Logistics Management, 15(2).
  • Daskin, M.S., S.M. Hesse, C.S. Revelle (1997), “α-Reliable p-minimax Regret: A New Model for Strategic Facility Location Modeling”, Location Science, 5(4), 227-246.
  • Elmaghraby, W.J. (2000), “Supply Contract Competition and Sourcing Policies”, Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, 2(4), 350–371.
  • Gallego, G., I. Moon (1993), “The Distribution Free Newsboy Problem: Review and Extension”, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 44(8), 825–834.
  • Gotoh, J., Y. Takano (2007), “Newsvendor Solutions via Conditional Value- at-risk Minimization”, European Journal of Operational Research, 179(1), 80–96.
  • Hochreiter, R., G.C. Pflug (2007), “Financial Scenario Generation for Stochastic Multi-stage Decision Processes as Facility Location Problems”, Annals of Operations Research, 152(1), 257–272.
  • Jammernegg, W., P. Kischka (2012), “Newsvendor problems with VaR and CVaR consideration,” T.M. Choi (ed.), Handbook on Newsvendor Problems: Models, Extensions and Applications, Springer-New York, 197-216.
  • Khouja, M. (1999), “The Single-period (news-vendor) Problem: Literature Review and Suggestions for Future Research”, Omega, 27(5), 537–553.
  • Kleywegt, A.J., A. Shapiro, T. Homem-de Mello (2001), “The Sample Average Approximation Method for Stochastic Discrete Optimization”, SIAM Journal on Optimization, 12, 479-502.
  • Lau, H.S. (1980), “The Newsboy Problem under Alternative Optimization Objectives”, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 31, 525–35.
  • Lee, H.L. (2002) “Aligning Supply Chain Strategies with Product Uncertainties”, California Management Review, 44(3):105–119.
  • Markowitz, H.M. (1952), “Portfolio Selection”, The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77–91.
  • Merzifonluoglu, Y., Y. Feng (2014), “Newsvendor Problem with Multiple Unreliable Suppliers” International Journal of Production Research, 52 (1), 221-242.
  • Merzifonluoglu, Y. (2015) “Impact of Risk Aversion and Backup Supplier on Sourcing Decision of a Firm”, International Journal of Production Research, available online.
  • Minner, S. (2003), “Multiple-supplier Inventory Models in Supply Chain Management: A Review”, International Journal of Production Economics, 81-82, 265–279.
  • Nishiguchi, T., A. Beaudet (1998), “Case study: The Toyota Group and the Aisin fire”, Sloan Management Revıew, 40(1), 49–59.
  • Ogryczak, W., A. Ruszczy´nski (2002), “Dual Stochastic Dominance and Related Mean–risk Models”, SIAM Journal on Optimization, 13, 60–78.
  • Pflug, G. Ch. (2000), “Some Remarks on the Value-at-Risk and the Conditional Value-at-Risk”, S. Uryasev (ed.), Probabilistic Constrained Optimization: Methodology and Applications. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 272–281.
  • Qin, Y., R. Wang, A.J. Vakharia, Y. Chen, M.M.H. Seref (2011), “The Newsvendor Problem: Review and Directions for Future Research”, European Journal of Operational Research, 213 (2), 361–374.
  • Sawik, T. (2011), “Selection of Supply Portfolio under Disruption Risks”, Omega: The International Journal of Management Science, 39 194–208.
  • Snyder, L.V., M.S. Daskin (2007), “Models for Reliable Supply Chain Network Design”, A.T. Murray, T. Grubesic (eds.), Critical Infrastructure: Reliability and Vulnerability, Advances in Spatial Science, Springer, New York, 257–290.
  • Snyder, L.V., M.S. Daskin (2006), “Stochastic p-Robust Location Problems”, IIE Transactions, 38(11), 971-985.
  • Treece, J. (1997), “Just-too-much Single-sourcing Spurs Toyota Purchasing Review: Maker Seeks at least 2 Suppliers for each Part”, Automotive News, (March 3) 3.
  • Wang C.X., S.Webster (2009), “The Loss-averse Newsvendor Problem”, Omega, 37(1), 93–105
  • Wu, J., Li J., S. Wang, T.C.E. Cheng (2009), “Mean-variance Analysis of the Newsvendor Problem with Stockout Cost”, Omega, 37(3), 724–30.
There are 32 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Yasemin Merzifonluoğlu Uzgören

Publication Date June 23, 2016
Submission Date June 23, 2016
Published in Issue Year 2016 Volume: 34 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Merzifonluoğlu Uzgören, Y. (2016). TEDARİKÇİ SEÇİMİ İÇİN RİSK GÖZETEN KARAR MODELLERİ. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 34(2), 53-78. https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.259133
AMA Merzifonluoğlu Uzgören Y. TEDARİKÇİ SEÇİMİ İÇİN RİSK GÖZETEN KARAR MODELLERİ. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. June 2016;34(2):53-78. doi:10.17065/huniibf.259133
Chicago Merzifonluoğlu Uzgören, Yasemin. “TEDARİKÇİ SEÇİMİ İÇİN RİSK GÖZETEN KARAR MODELLERİ”. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 34, no. 2 (June 2016): 53-78. https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.259133.
EndNote Merzifonluoğlu Uzgören Y (June 1, 2016) TEDARİKÇİ SEÇİMİ İÇİN RİSK GÖZETEN KARAR MODELLERİ. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 34 2 53–78.
IEEE Y. Merzifonluoğlu Uzgören, “TEDARİKÇİ SEÇİMİ İÇİN RİSK GÖZETEN KARAR MODELLERİ”, Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 34, no. 2, pp. 53–78, 2016, doi: 10.17065/huniibf.259133.
ISNAD Merzifonluoğlu Uzgören, Yasemin. “TEDARİKÇİ SEÇİMİ İÇİN RİSK GÖZETEN KARAR MODELLERİ”. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 34/2 (June 2016), 53-78. https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.259133.
JAMA Merzifonluoğlu Uzgören Y. TEDARİKÇİ SEÇİMİ İÇİN RİSK GÖZETEN KARAR MODELLERİ. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2016;34:53–78.
MLA Merzifonluoğlu Uzgören, Yasemin. “TEDARİKÇİ SEÇİMİ İÇİN RİSK GÖZETEN KARAR MODELLERİ”. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 34, no. 2, 2016, pp. 53-78, doi:10.17065/huniibf.259133.
Vancouver Merzifonluoğlu Uzgören Y. TEDARİKÇİ SEÇİMİ İÇİN RİSK GÖZETEN KARAR MODELLERİ. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2016;34(2):53-78.

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