Starma Modeling and Estimation of Province-Based Inflation in Turkey

Year 2010, Volume: 28 Issue: 1, 1 - 36, 30.06.2010

K. Batu Tunay

Abstract

In this study, Turkey's province-based
inflation is estimated by space-time autoregressive moving average (STARMA)
models. Study also aims to introduce STARMA models as efficient econometrical
estimation tools for the analysis of geographical based economic variables. Findings
obtained shows us that statistically significance level and explanatory power
of model are both expressively high. Consequently, this model can be used for
forecasting of province-based inflation. Thus, political authorities can easily
forecast inflation and thereby take necessary measures to cope with both
province-based and country-wide inflation. As a result of these, success of
executed policies will undoubtedly increase.

 

Keywords

Inflation, spatial dependence, STARMA models

TÜRKİYE’DE İLLER TEMELİNDE ENFLASYONUN UZABHO MODELLEMESİ VE TAHMİNİ

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de farklı iller
temelinde enflasyonun uzay-zaman ardışık bağlanım hareketli ortalama (UZABHO)
modelleriyle tahmini yapılmaktadır. Coğrafi temelli ekonomik değişkenlerin
analiz edilmesinde etkin bir ekonometrik tahmin aracı olarak UZABHO
modellerinin tanıtılması da amaçlanmaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlar gerek
istatistik anlamlılık gerekse açıklayıcı güçleri açısından son derece
başarılıdır. Sonuçların başarısına bakılarak, söz konusu modelin bölgesel
enflasyonun öngörüsünün yapılmasında başarıyla kullanılabileceği rahatlıkla
söylenebilir. Böylelikle, politika yapanlar ülke genelinde olduğu gibi bölgesel
düzeyde de enflasyonu öngörebilecek, bölgeye özel tedbirler alınabilecek ve
uygulanacak politikaların başarı şansı da kuşkusuz artacaktır.

Keywords

Enflasyon, uzaysal bağlılık, UZABHO modelleri

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