ENERJİ PROJELERİNİN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ SÜRECİNDE ÇOK KRİTERLİ KARAR VERME YAKLAŞIMLARI VE TÜRKİYE UYGULAMALARI

Year 2009, Volume: 27 Issue: 1, 161 - 186, 01.07.2009

Kazım Barış Atıcı Aydın Ulucan

Abstract

Enerji ve Çevre konularında karar
analizi tekniklerinin kullanılması son yıllarda Yöneylem Araştırması literatüründe
sıklıkla karşımıza çıkan bir durumdur. Yapılan çalışmalara bakıldığında, karar
analizi tekniklerinin özellikle elektrik enerjisi planlamasında kullanıldığı ve
bu alanda yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarına olan ilginin gittikçe arttığı
gözlemlenmektedir. Bu çalışma, karar analizinin güncel tekniklerinden olan
ELECTRE (Elimination and Choice
Translating Reality) ve PROMETHEE (Preference
Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation) yöntemlerinin
Türkiye enerji sektöründe uygulanmasını amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada, çeşitli
hidroelektrik santral projelerinin ELECTRE yöntemi ile sıralandığı ve çeşitli
rüzgar santrali projelerinin PROMETHEE tekniği kullanılarak sıralandığı iki
adet uygulama bulunmaktadır. Çalışma, Türkiye enerji sektöründe genellikle
karar vericinin yargısına yüksek derecede bağlı olan kararların, analitik
yöntemler kullanılarak daha rasyonel bir şekilde alınabileceğini göstermek
amacındadır.

  

Keywords

Enerji ve çevre, çok kriterli karar verme, ELECTRE, PROMETHEE, proje değerlendirilmesi

Multi Criteria Decision Analysis Approaches in Energy Projects Evaluation Process and Turkey Applications

Abstract

 

The use of Decision Analysis techniques
in Energy & Environment issues has been encountered often in Operations
Research literature recently. When we look at the studies, it is seen that
Decision Analysis techniques are especially used in electric energy planning.
Also, it can be noticed that there is a growing interest on renewable energy
resources.  This study aims to apply two
contemporary Decision Analysis techniques, ELECTRE (Elimination and Choice Translating Reality) and PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Organization Method for
Enrichment Evaluation) in energy industry of Turkey. In the study, there
are two applications. In the first application, various hydroelectric plant
projects are ranked using ELECTRE method. The second application ranks multiple
wind plant projects using PROMETHEE technique. The study aims to present that
decisions in the Turkish energy industry which are highly dependent on the
judgment of the decision maker, can be made in a more rational manner with the
use of analytical techniques.

 

 

Keywords

Energy and environment, multi criteria decision analysis, ELECTRE, PROMETHEE, project evaluation

References

• Beccali, M., M. Cellura, M. Mistretta (2003) “Decision-Making in Energy Planning: Application of the ELECTRE Method at Regional Level for the Diffusion of Renewable Energy Technology”, Renewable Energy, 28, 2063–87.
• Benayoun, R., B. Roy, B. Sussman (1966) “ELECTRE: Une Méthode Pour Guider Le Choix En Présence De Points De Vue Multiples”, Note De Travail 49, SEMA-METRA International, Direction Scientifique.
• Brans, J.P., B. Mareschal (2005) “PROMETHEE Methods”, in Figueira, J, Greco, S, Ehrgott, M (eds.), Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis-State of the Art Surveys, Springer, New York, 163-195.
• Dağdeviren, M., E. Eraslan (2008) “Promethee Sıralama Yöntemi İle Tedarikçi Seçimi”, Gazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi, 23(1), 69-75.
• Dargam, F.C.C., E.W. Perz (1998) “A Decision Support System for Power Plant Design”, European Journal of Operational Research, 109, 310–20.
• Diakoulaki, D., C. Zopounidis, G. Mavrotas, M. Doumpos (1999) “The Use of A Preference Disaggregation Method İn Energy Analysis And Policy Making”, Energy, 24, 157–66.
• Dunning, D.J., S. Lockfort, Q.E. Ross, P.C. Beccue, J.S. Stonebraker (2001) “New York Power Authority Uses Decision Analysis to Schedule Refueling of its Indian Point 3 Nuclear Power Plant”, Interfaces, 31(5), 121–35.
• Dünya Enerji Konseyi Türk Milli Komitesi (2007) 2005-2006 Türkiye Enerji Raporu, Ankara.
• Figueira, J., V. Mousseau, B. Roy (2005) “Electre Methods”, in: Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: State of the Art Surveys, J. Figueria, S., Greco, M. Ehrgott) (eds.), Boston, Springer, 133-162.
• Georgopoulou, E., D. Lalas, L. Papagiannakis (1997) “A Multicriteria Decision Aid Approach for Energy Planning Problems: The Case of Renewable Energy Option”, European Journal of Operational Research, 103, 38–54.
• Georgopoulou, E., Y. Sarafidis, S. Mirasgedis, S. Zaimi, D.P. Lalas (2003) “A Multiple Criteria Decision-Aid Approach in Defining National Priorities for Greenhouse Gases Emissions Reduction in the Energy Sector”, European Journal of Operational Research, 146, 199–215.
• Goumas, M.G., V.A Lygerou, L.E. Papayannakis (1999) “Computational Methods for Planning and Evaluating Geothermal Energy Projects”, Energy Policy, 27, 147–54.
• Haralambopoulos, D.A., H. Polatidis (2003)“Renewable Energy Projects: Structuring A Multicriteria Group Decision-Making Framework”, Renewable Energy, 28, 961–73.
• Hobbs, B.F., P.T. Chao, B.N. Venkatesh (1997) “Using Decision Analysis to Include Climate Change in Water Resources Decision Making”, Climatic Change, 37, 77–202.
• Hokkanen, J., P. Salminen (1997) “ELECTRE III And IV Decision Aids in an Environmental Problem”, Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 6, 215–26.
• Huang, J.P., K.L. Poh, B.W Ang (1995) “Decision Analysis in Energy and Environmental Modeling”, Energy, 20, 843–855.
• Kalu, T. Ch. U. (1998) “Domestic Petroleum-Related Expertise Utilization and Nigeria’s Oil Industrial Survival: A Multicriteria Decision Analysis”, European Journal of Operational Research, 110, 457–73.
• Lahdelma, R., P. Salminen, J. Hokkanen (2002) “Locating A Waste Treatment Facility By Using Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis with Ordinal Criteria”, European Journal of Operational Research, 142, 45–56.
• Linares, P. (2002) “Multiple Criteria Decision Making And Risk Analysis As Risk Management Tools For Power Systems Planning”, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 17, 895–900.
• Loulou, R., A. Kanudia (1999) “Minimax Regret Strategies For Greenhouse Gas Abatement: Methodology And Application”, Operations Research Letters, 25, 219–30.
• Macharis, C., J.P. Brans, B. Mareschal (1998) “The GDSS PROMETHEE Procedure – A PROMETHEE-GAIA Based Procedure For Group Decision Support”, Journal of Decision Systems, 7, 283–307.
• Mills, D., L. Viacic, I. Lowe (1996) “Improving Electricity Planning-Use of A Multicriteria Decision Making Model”, International Transactions in Operational Research, 3, 293–304.
• Pan, J.P., Y. Teklu, S. Rahman, A.D. Castro (2000) “An İnterval-Based MADM Approach to the Identification of Candidate Alternatives in Strategic Resource Planning”, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 15, 1441–6.
• Ramanathan, R. (2001) “A Note on the use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process for Environmental Impact Assessment”, Journal of Environmental Management, 63, 27–35.
• Rogers, M. (2000) “Using Electre III to Aid The Choice of Housing Construction Process within Structural Engineering”, Construction Management and Economics, 18, 333-342.
• Roy, B. (1968) “Classement Et Choix En Présence De Points De Vue Multiples (La Méthode ELECTRE)”, RIRO, 8, 57–75.
• Salminen, P., J. Hokkanen, R. Lahdelma (1998) “Comparing Multicriteria Methods in The Context of Environmental Problems”, European Journal of Operational Research, 104, 485–96.
• Vaillancourt, K., J.P. Waaub (2004) “Equity İn İnternational Greenhouse Gases Abatement Scenarios: A Multicriteria Approach”, European Journal of Operational Research, 153, 489–505.
• Voropai, N.I., E. Ivanova (2002) “Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Techniques in Electric Power System Expansion Planning”, International Journal of Electrical Power Energy Systems, 24, 71–8.
• Wang, X., Z. Feng (2002) “Sustainable Development of Rural Energy and its Appraising System in China”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 6, 395–404.
• Zhou, P., B.W. Ang, K.L. Poh (2006) “Decision Analysis in Energy and Environmental Modeling: an Update”, Energy, 31, 2604–2622.