ESTIMATION OF TURKEY’S BEVERIDGE CURVE FOR THE PERIODS OF THE PRE AND THE POST GLOBAL CRISIS

Year 2016, Volume: 34 Issue: 3, 73 - 105, 30.09.2016

İbrahim Tokatlıoğlu

https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.259130

Cited By: 2

Abstract

This
paper estimates the Beveridge Curve and Matching Function using monthly data on
Turkish Labor Market between January of 2015 and July of 2014. Two sub periods
within the period in question are handled separately to identify the effects of
Global Crisis in 2008 on Turkish Labor Market and Turkey’s Beveridge Curve. The
parameter that reflects the average efficiency of matching technology is treated
as a time varying parameter in estimating the matching function. Estimates are
made on the state-space model. According to the results, it is found that the
parameter which represents the average efficiency of matching technology is
increasing over time. The increase in unemployment and the shortages in open
jobs in the post-crisis periods have led to easily matching the vacancies to
appropriate unemployed. The estimation results show that the Turkey’s Beveridge
Curve has a right sided shift with an increasing slope accompanying, both
within the pre and post crises periods. In addition, evidence on shifting of
the Beveridge Curve within the pre and post crises periods has been observed
however the slope of the curve stayed constant in the sub-periods. 

Küresel Kriz Öncesi ve Sonrası Dönem için Türkiye’nin Beveridge Eğrisi Tahmini

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye İşgücü Piyasası için Ocak-2005 ile Temmuz 2014 tarihleri arasında aylık veriler kullanılarak eşleşme fonksiyonu ve Beveridge Eğrisi tahmin edilmiştir. 2008 yılında yaşanan Küresel Krizin etkilerini görmek için söz konusu dönem iki alt döneme ayrılmıştır. Eşleşme fonksiyonu tahmininde eşleşme teknolojisi ortalama etkinliğini gösteren parametre, zamanla değişen parametre olarak ele alınmış ve tahminler durum-uzay modeli çerçevesinde yapılmıştır. Tahmin sonuçlarına göre kriz ve sonrası dönemde Türkiye Beveridge Eğrisinin hem eğimini artırdığı hem de sağa doğru kayma gösterdiği bulunmuştur. Bunun yanında kriz öncesi ve sonrası dönemlerde Beveridge Eğrisi’nde kaymalar olduğu ancak alt dönemlerdeki kaymalarda eğiminin değişmediği gözlemlenmiştir.

Keywords

Beveridge eğrisi, Türkiye işgücü piyasası

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