ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL PORTFOLIO FLOWS BY GRAVITY MODEL: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Year 2017, Volume: 35 Issue: 2, 49 - 70, 30.06.2017

Nalan Işık , Metin Yıldırım

https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.324764

Cited By: 1

Abstract

In
recent years, with the increase in portfolio flows on a global scale, Turkey
has become one of the countries attracting international portfolio flows. In
this context, the study aimed to investigate the international portfolio flows
in Turkey and the factors affecting these flows. For this, portfolio flows
between Turkey and selected thirty-two countries between 2001 and 2014 were
analyzed by panel data method using gravity model. According to the estimation
results, the gross domestic product of selected thirty-two countries, the ratio
of market capitalization to gross domestic product and secure internet
providers positively affect bilateral portfolio flows. However, the same
variables for Turkey were not found statistically significant. The effect of
the distance factor was negative in accordance with the literature. Moreover,
the presence of bank branches in Turkey in these countries positively
influenced portfolio flows between Turkey and the selected thirty-two
countries, but no evidence of the impact of the 2007-2008 global financial
crisis was reached.

Keywords

International portfolio flows, Turkey, gravity model, panel data analysis

ULUSLARARASI PORTFÖY AKIMLARININ ÇEKİM MODELİ İLE ANALİZİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

Son
dönemlerde küresel ölçekte portföy akımlarının artmasıyla Türkiye de
uluslararası portföy akımlarını çeken ülkeler arasına girmiştir. Bu bağlamda
çalışma, Türkiye’deki uluslararası portföy akımları ile bu akımları etkileyen
faktörlerin araştırılmasını hedeflemiştir. 
Bunun için 2001-2014 yılları arasında Türkiye ile seçilmiş otuz iki ülke
arasındaki portföy akımları, çekim modeli kullanılarak panel veri yöntemi ile
analiz edilmiştir. Tahmin sonuçlarına göre, seçilmiş otuz iki ülkenin gayrisafi
yurtiçi hâsılaları, piyasa kapitalizasyonlarının gayrisafi yurt içi hasılaya
oranları ve güvenli internet sunucuları, iki taraflı portföy akımlarını olumlu
etkilemektedir. Buna karşın Türkiye’ye ait aynı değişkenler istatistiksel
olarak anlamlı bulunamamıştır. Uzaklık faktörünün etkisi, literatüre uygun
olarak olumsuz saptanmıştır. Ayrıca, bu ülkelerin Türkiye’de banka şubelerinin
bulunması, Türkiye ile seçilmiş otuz iki ülke arasındaki portföy akımlarını
pozitif etkilerken, 2007-2008 küresel finans krizinin etkisine dair bir kanıta
ulaşılamamıştır.

Keywords

Uluslararası portföy akımları, Türkiye, çekim modeli, panel veri analizi

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