TAHMIN KULLANICILARININ HIZMETINDEKI POPÜLER VE ÖNEMLI BIR ARAÇ: ‘YARGISAL DÜZELTMELER’

Year 2013, Volume: 31 Issue: 2, 73 - 93, 31.12.2013

M. Sinan Gönül

https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.103644

Abstract

‘Yargısal düzeltmeler’, tahmin
kullanıcılarının yargılarını tahminleme sürecine katmasına olanak veren popüler
ve önemli araçlarıdır. Bu çalışmada, pratisyenler tarafından oldukça yaygın
olarak kullanılan bu metot hakkında bir literatür derlemesi yapılmıştır.
Yargısal düzeltmelerin altında yatan sebep ve motivasyonlar anlatılmış ve
ardından da son yıllarda bu konuyla ilgili yapılan bilimsel araştırmaların
yoğunlaştığı alanlar incelenmiştir. Aynı zamanda, varolan araştımalardaki bazı
önemli fırsatlar gösterilmiş ve gelecekteki yeni araştırmalar için bir gündem
oluşturulmuştur.

Keywords

Yargısal düzeltmeler, yargı, tahminler

A POPULAR AND IMPORTANT TOOL FOR FORECAST USERS: JUDGMENTAL ADJUSTMENTS

Abstract

‘Judgmental adjustments’ constitute one of the popular and important tools in the arsenal of the forecasting practitioners that facilitate the integration of their judgment into the forecasting process. In the current article, a literature review on this widely used method is provided. The motivation and reasons behind judgmental adjustments are examined followed by the recent concentrations of research on the subject. At the same time, primary research gaps are identified and an agenda for future research is provided.

Keywords

Judgmental adjustments, judgment, forecasting

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