TÜRKİYE’DE CARİ İŞLEMLER VE SERMAYE HESAPLARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ
Year 2011,
Volume: 29 Issue: 2, 49 - 67, 31.12.2011
Lütfi Erden
Oktay Çağatay
Abstract
Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de cari işlemler hesabı (CA) ile sermaye hesabı (KA) arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi incelenmektedir. Bunun için 1992-2009 yıllarına ait aylık veriler kullanılarak, Vektör Otoregresif Analizi çerçevesinde etki-tepki fonksiyonları elde edilmekte ve Granger-nedensellik testleri yapılmakta-dır. Bulgular CA-KA ilişkisinin tek yönlü olduğunu ve nedenselliğin KA’dan CA’ya doğru olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ancak KA’nın alt kalemlerinden oluşan “sıcak para” ve ağırlıklı olarak kredileri içeren “diğer finansal yatırımlar” bileşenleri ile CA arasındaki ikili ilişkilere bakıldığında, bulgular farklılaşmaktadır. Sıcak para hareketlerinin CA’yı tetiklediği bulunurken, diğer finansal yatırımlar ile CA arasında karşılıklı ilişki tespit edilememiştir.
References
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Year 2011,
Volume: 29 Issue: 2, 49 - 67, 31.12.2011
Lütfi Erden
Oktay Çağatay
References
- Agenor, P.R., C.J. McDermott and E.M. Üçer (1997) “Fiscal Imbalances, Capital Inflows, and the Real Exchange Rate: The Case of Turkey”, IMF Working Paper, No. 97/1.
- Bacchetta, P and E. Wincoop (2000) Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Liberalization, Overshooting and Volatility, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 61-103.
- Boratav, K. (2008) Türkiye İktisat Tarihi, (12. Baskı), Ankara: İmge Kitabevi Yayınları.
- Calvo, G., L. Leiderman and C. Reinhart (1996). “Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10, 123-139.
- Çulha, A.A. (2006) “A Structural VAR Analysis of the Determinants of Capital Flows into Turkey”, Central Bank Review, 2, 11-35.
- Eren, A. ve B. Süslü (2001) “Finansal Kriz Teorileri Işığında Türkiye’de Yaşanan Krizlerin Genel Bir Değerlendirmesi”, Yeni Türkiye Dergisi, 41, 662-674.
- Fry, M., S. Claessens, P. Burridge and M. Blanchet (1995) “Foreign Direct Investment, Other Capital Flows, and Current Account Deficits: What Causes What?”, The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No.1527.
- Dickey, D.A., W.A Fuller (1981) “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.
- Ghosh, A. and J.D. Ostry (1995).“The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from The Consumption Smoothing Approach”, World Bank Economic Review, No 9.
- Gregory, A.W. and A.C. Head (1999) “Common and Country-Specific Fluctuations in Productivity, Investment, and the Current Account”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 44, 423-451.
- Guerin, S.S. (2003) “The Relationship between Capital Flows and Current Account: Volatility and Causality”, Working Paper, Dublin: Trinity College.
- Kwiatkowski, D., P. Phillips, P. Schmidt and Y. Shin (1992) “Testing The Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against The Alternative of A Unit Root. How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have Unit Root?”, Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178.
- Obstfeld, M. and K. Rogoff (1996) Foundations of International Macroeconomics, Cambridge: MIT Press.
- Phillips, P.C. and P. Perron (1988) “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
- Tiryaki, S.T. (2002) “Cari İşlemler Hesabına Çeşitli Yaklaşımlar, Sürdürülebilirlik ve Türkiye Örneği”, TCMB Araştırma Genel Müdürlüğü Çalışma Tebliği, No: 8.
- Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (2005) Para Politikası Raporu, Ankara: TCMB.
- Wong, C. and L. Carranza (1999) “Policy Responses to External Imbalances in Emerging Market Economies: Further Empirical Results”, IMF Staff Papers, 46(2), 225-237.
- Yan, H. (2005) “Causal Relationship Between the Current Account and Financial Account”, International Advances in Economic Research, 11, 149-162.
- Yan, H. (2007) “Does Capital Mobility Finance or Cause a Current Account Imbalance?”, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 47, 1-25.
- Yan, H. and C. Yang (2008) “Foreign Capital Inflows and the Current Account Imbalance: Which Causality Direction?”, Journal of Economic Integration, 23(2), 434-461.
- Yeldan, E. (2008) Küreselleşme Sürecinde Türkiye Ekonomisi, (13. Baskı), İstanbul: