2008 Krizi Sonrası Cari Açık ile TCMB Politika Faiz Oranı Arasındaki İlişki: ARDL ve NARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Year 2024, Volume: 42 Issue: 3, 517 - 535, 24.09.2024

Ayşegül Ladin Sümer , Osman Peker

https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.1372660

Abstract

Türkiye ekonomisinin yapısal sorunları ve 2008 krizi sonrası uygulanan sıkı para politikası etkisiyle cari açık sürekli bir sorun olmaya devam etmektedir. Dolayısıyla, cari açığa yönelik alınan önlemler TCMB'nin öncelikli gündem maddelerini oluşturmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, enflasyon hedeflemesi ve dalgalı döviz kuru sisteminde cari açık ile politika faiz oranı arasındaki ilişkiyi 2011: Q1-2023: Q1 döneminde ARDL ve NARDL sınır testi yöntemleri ile karşılaştırmalı olarak incelemektir. Eşbütünleşme testi sonuçları değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığını doğrulamaktadır. ARDL modeli uzun ve kısa vadeli katsayılar politika faizinin cari açık üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisinin olmadığını göstermektedir. NARDL modeli uzun ve kısa vadeli katsayıları ise politika faizinin cari açık üzerinde anlamlı ve asimetrik etkisinin olmadığını kanıtlamaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular, politika faiz oranı ayarlamalarının cari açık üzerinde beklenen etkisinin sınırlı olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Sonuç olarak, enflasyon hedeflemesinde döviz kurunun politika faizine vereceği tepkinin cari açığın sürdürülebilir bir seviyede tutulmasında daha belirleyici olacağı düşünülmektedir.

Keywords

Cari Açık, Politika Faizi, ARDL, NARDL.

The Relationship Between Current Account Deficit and CBRT Policy Rates After the 2008 Crisis: ARDL and NARDL Bounds Test Approach

Abstract

The current account deficit continues to be a constant problem due to the structural problems of the Turkish economy and the tight monetary policy implemented after the 2008 crisis. Therefore, the measures taken against the current account deficit constitute the priority agenda items of the CBRT. This study aims to comparatively examine the relationship between the current account deficit and the policy interest rate in the inflation targeting and floating exchange rate system using ARDL and NARDL bounds test methods in the period 2011:Q1-2023:Q1. Cointegration test results confirm the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables. ARDL model long-run and short-run coefficients show that the policy rate does not have a significant effect on the current account deficit. NARDL model long-run and short-run coefficients prove that the policy rate does not have a significant and asymmetric effect on the current account deficit. The findings indicate that the expected impact of policy interest rate adjustments on the current account deficit is limited. As a result, it is concluded that the reaction of the exchange rate to the policy interest in inflation targeting will be more decisive in keeping the current account deficit at a sustainable level.

Keywords

Current Account Deficit, Policy Rate, ARDL, NARDL

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