Hava Kirliliğinin Borsaya Etkisi

Year 2025, Volume: 43 Issue: 1, 185 - 201, 26.03.2025

Merve N. Erkut , Eylül Kabakçı Günay , Meltem Ince Yenilmez

Abstract

Bu araştırmanın amacı, 1 Mart 2013 ile 7 Temmuz 2023 tarihleri arasındaki 10 yıllık dönemde BIST hisse senedi piyasası ile hava kirliliği arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir. Bu çalışma, Türkiye özelinde hava kirliliği ve borsa performansına ilişkin literatürde bulunan boşluğa dikkat çekmektedir. Önceki çalışmalar, ince partikül madde kirliliğinin yatırımcı psikolojisi üzerindeki olumsuz etkilerini incelemiştir. Bu çalışmalar, hava kirliliğinin yatırımcı iyimserliğini azalttığını ve buna istinaden yatırım kararlarının daha temkinli hale geldiğini vurgulamaktadır. Azalan iyimserlik, riskli varlıkların talebinde düşüşe yol açarak hisse senedi piyasalarında getirilerin azalmasına neden olmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de hava kirliliği ve hisse senedi piyasası performansı arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemek amacıyla değişkenlerin durağanlığını test etmek için Dickey-Fuller birim kök testleri uygulanmış ve verilerin zaman serisi analizi için uygunluğu değerlendirilmiştir. Modelde bağımsız değişken olarak Hava Kalitesi İndeksi (AQI) ve iyi/kötü hava kalitesi günlerini temsil eden kukla değişkenler kullanılmıştır. Model, aynı zamanda hisse senedi getirilerini etkileyebilecek mevsimsel ve takvimsel anomalileri (Ocak ayı etkisi ve Pazartesi etkisi gibi) kontrol etmek için ek kukla değişkenleri de ekleyerek etkilerini gözlemlemektedir. Sonuç olarak, bu çalışma, hava kirliliği ile hisse senedi getirileri arasındaki varsayılan negatif ilişkiyi analiz ederken, hava kalitesinin iyileştirilmesine yönelik politikaların hem çevresel hem de ekonomik faydalar sağlayabileceğini ortaya koymaktadır. Çalışmanın bulguları, hava kirliliğinin yatırımcı duyarlılığı üzerindeki olumsuz etkilerini hafifletmek ve piyasa istikrarını artırmak amacıyla, hükümetlerin hava kalitesini artırmaya yönelik teşvikleri artırması gerektiğini vurgulamaktadır

Keywords

Hava Kirliliği, Borsa, Yatırımcı Ruh Hali, ARIMA Modeli

The Impact of Air Pollution on the Stock Market

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between air pollution and the BIST stock market over 10 years between March 1, 2013 and July 7, 2023. This study draws attention to the gap in the literature on air pollution and stock market performance in Türkiye. Previous studies have examined the negative effects of fine particulate matter pollution on investor psychology. These studies emphasize that air pollution reduces investor optimism, which leads to more cautious investment decisions. Decreased optimism leads to a decline in the demand for risky assets, resulting in lower returns in stock markets. In this study, to examine the relationship between air pollution and stock market performance in Türkiye, Dickey-Fuller unit root tests were applied to test the stationarity of the variables and the suitability of the data for time series analysis was evaluated. The Air Quality Index (AQI) and dummy variables representing good/bad air quality days are used as independent variables in the model. The model also includes additional dummy variables to control for seasonal and calendar anomalies (such as the January effect and Monday effect) that may affect stock returns. As a result, this study analyzes the hypothesized negative relationship between air pollution and stock returns revealing that policies to improve air quality can provide both environmental and economic benefits. The findings emphasize that governments should increase incentives to improve air quality to mitigate the negative effects of air pollution on investor sentiment and enhance market stability

Keywords

Air Pollution, Stock Market, Investor Mood, ARIMA Model

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