Ekonomik Büyümenin İtici Gücü Olarak Enerji Trilemması: Türkiye'den Ampirik Bulgular

Year 2025, Volume: 43 Issue: 2, 213 - 231, 25.06.2025

Emre Akusta

https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.1496363

Abstract

Enerji trilemması, sürdürülebilir enerji sistemini desteklemek için enerji güvenliği, enerjiye erişim ve çevresel sürdürülebilirlik olmak üzere üç temel boyut arasında bir denge kurulmasını gerektirir. Bu üç boyut, küresel enerji politikalarının şekillendirilmesinde merkezi bir role sahiptir. Bu nedenle, bu çalışmada Türkiye’de enerji trilemmasının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri araştırılmıştır. 2000-2022 dönemi yıllık verilerinin kullanıldığı bu çalışmada ARDL yöntemi tercih edilmiştir. Çalışmada Enerji Trilemma Endeksi'nin kısa dönemde Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla üzerinde 0.243'lük bir katsayı ile pozitif ve güçlü bir etkiye sahip olduğu, uzun dönemde ise bu etkinin 0.346'ya yükselerek daha da güçlendiği tespit edildi. Aynı zamanda, diğer açıklayıcı değişkenler olan Yabancı Doğrudan Yatırım, Sürdürülebilir Enerjiye Geçiş, Finansal Gelişmişlik ve Gayrisafi Sabit Sermaye Oluşumu da ekonomik büyümeyi hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Bu nedenle, Türkiye'de ekonomik istikrar için ekonomik büyüme, enerji güvenliği, çevresel sürdürülebilirlik ve sosyal refahı uyumlaştıran enerji politikaları önerilmektedir.

Keywords

Enerji Trilemması , Ekonomik Büyüme , Enerji Güvenliği , Çevresel Sürdürülebilirlik , ARDL

The Energy Trilemma as a Driver of Economic Growth: Empirical Findings from Türkiye

Abstract

The energy trilemma requires a balance between three key dimensions - energy security, energy access and environmental sustainability - to support a sustainable energy system. These three dimensions have a central role in shaping global energy policies. Therefore, this study investigates the impacts of the energy trilemma on economic growth in Turkiye. Using annual data for the period 2000-2022, ARDL method was preferred in this study. The results show that the Energy Trilemma Index has a positive and strong impact on the Gross Domestic Product in the short-run with a coefficient of 0.243, and in the long-run, this impact is even stronger with a coefficient of 0.346. Moreover, the other explanatory variables, i.e., Foreign Direct Investment, Transition to Sustainable Energy, Financial Development, and Gross Fixed Capital Formation, also positively impact economic growth in both the short - and long-run. Therefore, energy policies harmonize economic growth, energy security, environmental sustainability, and social welfare are recommended for economic stability in Turkiye.

Keywords

Energy Trilemma , Economic Growth , Energy Security , Environmental Sustainability , ARDL

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