Çatışma ve İklim Değişimi Çalışmalarının Ana Temaları ve Bibliyometrik İncelenmesi

Abstract

Gerekli önlemler alınamadığı takdirde büyük sorunlara yol açacağı düşünülen iklim değişikliği, kuraklıkların ve doğal afetlerin sık ve şiddetli yaşanmasına neden olmaktadır. Bu durumda su, toprak, gıda gibi yaşam için gerekli kullanılabilir temel kaynaklar azalacaktır. Kaynaklar azaldığında yaşanan gerilimlerin, özellikle merkezi yönetimi zayıf, gelir seviyesi düşük olan az gelişmiş ülkelerde, iç ve dış çatışmaları tetikleyeceği düşünülmektedir. Diğer yandan, savaşlar, çokça fosil yakıt ve ateşli silahlar kullanımına sebep olduğundan, ormanlar ve doğal kaynakları tahrip etmekte, iklim krizinin en önemli nedeni olarak görülen karbondioksit emisyonunu arttırmaktadır. Yani, iklim değişimleri savaşları tetiklerken, ne yazık ki savaşlar da iklim krizini arttırmaktadır. Bilhassa savaş ülkeler için varoluşsal bir boyuta ulaştığında, iklim değişikliğini engellemek için büyük yatırımlarla enerji politikalarını yeniden şekillendiren devletlerde bile bu anlaşmalara uymama riski çoğalır. Bu çalışmada geleceğimiz için önemli bir tehdit olarak görülen iklim değişikliği ile savaşlar arasındaki ilişkiyi konu alan Web of Science (Wos) literatürünü ana temaları ve bibliyometrik göstergeler üzerinden inceledik. Zaman serileri incelendiğinde çatışma ve iklim değişikliği çalışmalarına ilginin arttığı ve en fazla çalışmanın özellikle "çevre bilimleri ve ekoloji" alanında yapıldığı görüldü. Çatışma ve iklim değişikliği çalışmalarının ana konularını bulmak için bu çalışmada indirilen özetlere Gizli Dirichlet Tahsisi (LDA) Konu Modellemesi uygulanmıştır. Böylece ana konuların gıda, politika, göç, karbon emisyonları ve hayvanlar olduğu belirlendi.

Keywords

• İklim Değişikliği
• Çatışma
• İklim Krizi
• Savaş
• Konu Modelleme

Main Themes and Bibliometric Analysis of Conflict and Climate Change Studies

Abstract

Climate change, thought to cause significant problems if necessary precautions are not taken, causes droughts and natural disasters to occur frequently and severely. The primary resources required for life, such as water, soil, and food, will decrease in such a situation. It is thought that experiencing tensions dependent on resource scarcity will trigger internal and external conflicts, especially in underdeveloped countries with weak central governments and low income levels. On the other hand, because wars cause the use of large amounts of fossil fuels and firearms, they destroy forests and natural resources and increase carbon dioxide emissions, which are considered the most crucial cause of the climate crisis. In other words, while climate changes trigger wars, unfortunately, wars also increase the climate crisis. Especially when war reaches an existential dimension for countries, the risk of non-compliance with these agreements increases even in states that reshape their energy policies with significant investments to prevent climate change. In this study, we examined the Web of Science (Wos) literature on the relationship between climate change, which is seen as a significant threat to our future, and wars through its main themes and bibliometric indicators. Looking at the time series, interest in conflict and climate change studies has increased, and most studies have been done mainly in the field of "environmental sciences and ecology". Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) Topic Modeling was applied to the abstracts downloaded in this study to find the main topics of conflict and climate change studies. So, the main topics were food, politics, migration, carbon emissions, and animals.

Keywords

• Climate Change
• Conflict
• Climate Crisis
• War
• Topic Modeling

References

1. Altintaş V., Albayrak M, & Topal K., (2021), “Topic modeling with latent Dirichlet allocation for cancer disease posts”, Journal of the Faculty of Engineering and Architecture of Gazi University, p36 (4), p.2183–2196.
2. Benjaminsen, T. A., Alinon, K., Buhaug, H., & Buseth, J. T. (2012), “Does climate change drive land-use conflicts in the Sahel?”, Journal of Peace Research, 49(1), p.97-111.
3. Blunt, P., Escobar, C., & Missos, V. (2023). “The political economy of bilateral aid: African development and the manufacture of consent”, Africa Journal of Management, 9(1), 1-19.
4. Bowles, D. C., Butler, C. D., & Morisetti, N. (2015), “Climate change, conflict and health”, Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, 108(10), p.390-395.
5. Blei, D. M., Ng, A. Y., & Jordan, M. I. (2003), “Latent dirichlet allocation”, Journal of Machine Learning research, 3(Jan), p.993-1022.
6. Buhaug, H. (2010). “Climate not to blame for African civil wars”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(38), p.16477-16482.
7. Burke, M. B., Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., Dykema, J. A., & Lobell, D. B. (2009). “Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa”, Proceedings of the national Academy of sciences, 106(49), p.20670-20674.
8. Chang, J., Gerrish, S., Wang, C., Boyd-Graber, J., & Blei, D. (2009). “Reading tea leaves: How humans interpret topic models”, Advances in neural information processing systems, 22.

9. Dell, M., Jones, B. F., & Olken, B. A. (2012). “Temperature shocks and economic growth: Evidence from the last half century”, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 4(3), p.66-95.
10. Depledge, D. (2023). “Low-carbon warfare: Climate change, net zero and military operations”, International Affairs, 99(2), p.667-685.
11. Farghali, M., Osman, A. I., Umetsu, K., & Rooney, D. W. (2022). “Integration of biogas systems into a carbon zero and hydrogen economy: a review”, Environmental Chemistry Letters, 20(5), p.2853-2927.
12. Freeman, L. (2017). “Environmental change, migration, and conflict in Africa: a critical examination of the interconnections”, The Journal of Environment & Development, 26(4), p.351-374.
13. Gleditsch, N. P. (2012). “Whither the weather? Climate change and conflict”, Journal of Peace Research, 49(1), p.3-9.
14. Hobbs, M. J. (2020). “Conflict ecology: Examining the strategies and rationales of lobbyists in the mining and energy industries in Australia”, Public Relations Review, 46(2), 101868.
15. Ide, T., & Scheffran, J. (2014). “On climate, conflict and cumulation: suggestions for integrative cumulation of knowledge in the research on climate change and violent conflict”, Global Change, Peace & Security, 26(3), p.263-279.
16. Ide, T., Johnson, M. F., Barnett, J., Krampe, F., Le Billon, P., Maertens, L., ... & Vélez-Torres, I. (2023). “The future of environmental peace and conflict research”, Environmental Politics, p.1-27.
17. Kaplan, G., Rashid, T., Gasparovic, M., Pietrelli, A., & Ferrara, V. (2022). “Monitoring war‐generated environmental security using remote sensing: A review”, Land Degradation & Development, 33(10), p.1513-1526.
18. Koubi, V., Bernauer, T., Kalbhenn, A., & Spilker, G. (2012). “Climate variability, economic growth, and civil conflict”, Journal of peace research, 49(1), p.113-127.
19. Landholm, D. M., Pradhan, P., & Kropp, J. P. (2019). “Diverging forest land use dynamics induced by armed conflict across the tropics”, Global Environmental Change, 56, p.86-94.
20. Liobikienė, G., Matiiuk, Y., & Krikštolaitis, R. (2023). “The concern about main crises such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and climate change's impact on energy-saving behavior”, Energy Policy, 113678.
21. Mach, K. J., & Kraan, C. M. (2021). “Science–policy dimensions of research on climate change and conflict”, Journal of Peace Research, 58(1), p.168-176.
22. Mack, E. A., Marcantonio, R. A., Bunting, E., Ross, A., Zimmer, A., Zulu, L. C., ... & Henebry, G. M. (2022). “A systematic literature review of quantitative studies assessing the relationship between water and conflict on the African continent”, Sustainability, 14(22), 14912.
23. Marcantonio, R. A., Attari, S. Z., & Evans, T. P. (2018). “Farmer perceptions of conflict related to water in Zambia”, Sustainability, 10(2), p.313.
24. McClanahan, T., Allison, E. H., & Cinner, J. E. (2015). “Managing fisheries for human and food security”, Fish and Fisheries, 16(1), p.78-103.
25. Muzamil, M. R., Tschakert, P., Boruff, B., & Shahbaz, B. (2021). “An extreme climatic event and systemic vulnerabilities in the face of conflict: insights from the Taliban insurgency in Swat, Pakistan”, Regional Environmental Change, 21, p.1-13.
26. Ravi, C. (2021). “The 1971 Bangladesh war and policy lessons for climate refugee management in South Asia”, Politics & Policy, 49(1), p.248-274.
27. Röder, M., Both, A., & Hinneburg, A. (February 2015). “Exploring the space of topic coherence measures”, In Proceedings of the eighth ACM international conference on Web search and data mining (pp. 399-408).
28. Ryan, M. E., Palen, W. J., Adams, M. J., & Rochefort, R. M. (2014). “Amphibians in the climate vise: loss and restoration of resilience of montane wetland ecosystems in the western US”, Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 12(4), p.232-240.
29. Sánchez, A., & Rylance, G. (2018). “When the taps run dry: water stress and socıal unrest revısıted”, Revista UNISCI, (47).
30. Sawalhah, M. N., Al-Kofahi, S. D., Othman, Y. A., & Cibils, A. F. (2018). “Assessing rangeland cover conversion in Jordan after the Arab spring using a remote sensing approach”, Journal of Arid Environments, 157, p.97-102.
31. Selby, J., Dahi, O. S., Fröhlich, C., & Hulme, M. (2017). “Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited”, Political Geography, 60, p.232-244.
32. Sharifi, A., Simangan, D., & Kaneko, S. (2021a). “Three decades of research on climate change and peace: A bibliometrics analysis”, Sustainability Science, 16, p.1079-1095.
33. Sharifi, A., Simangan, D., Lee, C. Y., Reyes, S. R., Katramiz, T., Josol, J. C., ... & Islam, M. (2021b). “Climate-induced stressors to peace: a review of recent literatüre”, Environmental Research Letters, 16(7), 073006.
34. Singh, N. J., & Bagchi, S. (2013). “Applied ecology in India: scope of science and policy to meet contemporary environmental and socio‐ecological challenges”, Journal of Applied Ecology, 50(1), p.4-14.
35. Spijkers, J., Singh, G., Blasiak, R., Morrison, T. H., Le Billon, P., & Österblom, H. (2019). “Global patterns of fisheries conflict: Forty years of data”, Global Environmental Change, 57, 101921.
36. Stoll, C., & Mehling, M. A. (2020). “COVID-19: clinching the climate opportunity”, One Earth, 3(4), p.400-404.
37. Szopa, S., Balkanski, Y., Schulz, M., Bekki, S., Cugnet, D., Fortems-Cheiney, A., ... & Dufresne, J. L. (2013). “Aerosol and ozone changes as forcing for climate evolution between 1850 and 2100”, Climate dynamics, 40, p.2223-2250.
38. Teklu, T. W. (2018). “Should Ethiopia and least developed countries exit from the Paris climate accord?–Geopolitical, development, and energy policy perspectives”, Energy Policy, 120, p.402-417.
39. Van Schalkwyk, M. C., Maani, N., Cohen, J., McKee, M., & Petticrew, M. (2021). “Our postpandemic world: what will it take to build a better future for people and planet?”, The Milbank Quarterly, 99(2), p.467.
40. Williams, W., Parkes, E. L., & Davies, P. (2013). “Wordle: A method for analysing MBA student induction experience”, The International Journal of Management Education, 11(1), p.44-53.
41. Wilder, J. M., Vongraven, D., Atwood, T., Hansen, B., Jessen, A., Kochnev, A., ... & Gibbons, M. (2017). “Polar bear attacks on humans: Implications of a changing climate”, Wildlife Society Bulletin, 41(3), p.537-547.