Referandumlarda Kazanma Dinamikleri: Kampanya Yoğunluğu ve Referandum Konusunun Etkileri

Year 2024, , 518 - 538, 30.11.2024

Edip Asaf Bekaroğlu

https://doi.org/10.33709/ictimaiyat.1516715

Abstract

Referandum sonuçlarına ilişkin belirsizliklere rağmen hükümetler neden bazı önerilerini halk oylamasına sunarlar? Ayrıca, hangi koşullar altında referandumlarda kazanma şansları daha yüksektir? Bu çalışma, referanduma sunulan konular ve yürütülen kampanyalarla ilgili bazı değişkenlerin referandum sonucunu belirlemede ekonomik durum ve demokrasinin kalitesi gibi yapısal koşullardan daha etkili olduğunu savunmaktadır. Çalışmanın üç hipotezi bulunmaktadır. Birincisi, referandumda tarafların kampanya yoğunluğu ne kadar yüksekse, hükümet teklifinin onaylanma olasılığı o kadar düşüktür. İkincisi, referanduma sunulan paketin karmaşıklık düzeyi ne kadar yüksekse, onaylanma olasılığı da o kadar düşüktür. Üçüncüsü, eğer seçmenlerin oylanan konu hakkında zaten güçlü eğilimleri varsa, referandum sonuçları genel seçim sonuçlarına benzer ve referandumun sonucunu tahmin etmek daha kolaydır. Bu hipotezler, Türkiye’deki 2007, 2010 ve 2017 referandum kampanyalarının nitel karşılaştırması yapılarak analiz edilecektir.

Keywords

referandum, seçim kampanyası, demokrasi, Türkiye, AKP

Dynamics of Winning the Referendums: The Effects of Campaign Intensity and Referendum Issue

Abstract

Why do governments put some of their proposals to the popular vote despite the uncertainties about the referendum results? Furthermore, under which conditions do they have a better chance of winning in referendums. This study argues that some variables related to the issues put to referendum and the campaigns conducted are more influential in determining the referendum outcome than structural conditions such as the economic situation and the quality of democracy. It has three hypotheses. First, the higher the intensity of campaigning by the parties in the referendum, the lower the probability that the government proposal will be approved. Second, the higher the level of complexity of the package put to a referendum, the lower the probability of approval. Third, if voters already have strong predispositions on the issue being voted on, the results of the referendum resemble the results of general elections, i.e. it is easier to predict the outcome of the referendum. These hypotheses will be evaluated by making a qualitative comparison of the campaigns in Türkiye’s 2007, 2010, and 2017 referendums.

Keywords

referendum, campaigning, democracy, Turkiye, the AKP

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