Referandumlarda Kazanma Dinamikleri: Kampanya Yoğunluğu ve Referandum Konusunun Etkileri

Year 2024, Volume: 8 Issue: 2, 518 - 538, 30.11.2024

Edip Asaf Bekaroğlu

https://doi.org/10.33709/ictimaiyat.1516715

Abstract

Referandum sonuçlarına ilişkin belirsizliklere rağmen hükümetler neden bazı önerilerini halk oylamasına sunarlar? Ayrıca, hangi koşullar altında referandumlarda kazanma şansları daha yüksektir? Bu çalışma, referanduma sunulan konular ve yürütülen kampanyalarla ilgili bazı değişkenlerin referandum sonucunu belirlemede ekonomik durum ve demokrasinin kalitesi gibi yapısal koşullardan daha etkili olduğunu savunmaktadır. Çalışmanın üç hipotezi bulunmaktadır. Birincisi, referandumda tarafların kampanya yoğunluğu ne kadar yüksekse, hükümet teklifinin onaylanma olasılığı o kadar düşüktür. İkincisi, referanduma sunulan paketin karmaşıklık düzeyi ne kadar yüksekse, onaylanma olasılığı da o kadar düşüktür. Üçüncüsü, eğer seçmenlerin oylanan konu hakkında zaten güçlü eğilimleri varsa, referandum sonuçları genel seçim sonuçlarına benzer ve referandumun sonucunu tahmin etmek daha kolaydır. Bu hipotezler, Türkiye’deki 2007, 2010 ve 2017 referandum kampanyalarının nitel karşılaştırması yapılarak analiz edilecektir.

Keywords

referandum, seçim kampanyası, demokrasi, Türkiye, AKP

Dynamics of Winning the Referendums: The Effects of Campaign Intensity and Referendum Issue

Abstract

Why do governments put some of their proposals to the popular vote despite the uncertainties about the referendum results? Furthermore, under which conditions do they have a better chance of winning in referendums. This study argues that some variables related to the issues put to referendum and the campaigns conducted are more influential in determining the referendum outcome than structural conditions such as the economic situation and the quality of democracy. It has three hypotheses. First, the higher the intensity of campaigning by the parties in the referendum, the lower the probability that the government proposal will be approved. Second, the higher the level of complexity of the package put to a referendum, the lower the probability of approval. Third, if voters already have strong predispositions on the issue being voted on, the results of the referendum resemble the results of general elections, i.e. it is easier to predict the outcome of the referendum. These hypotheses will be evaluated by making a qualitative comparison of the campaigns in Türkiye’s 2007, 2010, and 2017 referendums.

Keywords

referendum, campaigning, democracy, Turkiye, the AKP

References

• Adalet Bakanı Bozdağ: Siz Atatürk'ün anayasasına karşı çıkıyorsunuz. (2017, January 9), Milliyet. Retrieved from http://www.milliyet.com.tr/adalet-bakani-bozdag-siz-siyaset-2375763/ (Accessed: 11 March 2024).
• Ak Partili Miroğlu’ndan flaş MHP açıklaması. (2017, April 18), Milliyet. Retrieved from http://www.milliyet.com.tr/ak-partili-miroglu-dan-flas-mhp-siyaset-2434517/ (Accessed: 10 March 2024).
• Aklınızı kimseye emanet etmeyin. (2017, January 10), Milliyet. Retrieved from http://www.milliyet.com.tr/-aklinizi-kimseye-emanet-etmeyin--siyaset-2375847/ (Accessed: 11 March 2024).
• Anckar, D. (2018). Why Referendums? On Appearances and Absences. In L. Morel & M. Qvortrup (Eds.) The Routledge Handbook to Referendums and Direct Democracy, (pp. 107–122). London: Routledge.
• Altman, D. (2011). Direct Democracy Worldwide. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Bahçeli: Vesayet altına girdiler. (2017, February 19), Milliyet. Retrieved from http://www.milliyet.com.tr/bahceli-vesayet-altina-girdiler-siyaset-2398893/ (Accessed: 11 March 2024).
• Bahceli acikladi: İşte MHP'nin seçim slogan. (2017, February 10), Milliyet. Retrieved from http://www.milliyet.com.tr/sistem-gecmezse-turkiye-karma-siyaset-2393808/ (Accessed: 5 April 2024).
• Başbakan Yıldırım: Artık zayıf iktidarlar dönemi sona erecek. (2017, March 4), Milliyet. Retrieved from http://www.milliyet.com.tr/basbakan-yildirim-artik-zayif-siyaset-2407496/ (Accessed: 12 April 2024).
• Bermeo, N. (2016). On democratic backsliding. Journal of Democracy, 27(1), 5-19. https://dx.doi.org/10.1353/jod.2016.0012.
• BDP: 12 Eylül’de sandığa gitmeyeceğiz. (2010, August 2), Milliyet. Retrieved from http://www.milliyet.com.tr/bdp-12-eylul-de-sandiga-gitmeyecegiz-siyaset-1271210 (Accessed: 2 March 2024).
• Bowler, S. & Donovan, T. (2000). Demanding Choices: Opinion, Voting, and Direct Democracy. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press.
• Brütüs atışması. (2010, July 26), Milliyet. Retrieved from http://www.milliyet.com.tr/brutus-atismasi-siyaset-1268272/ (Accessed: 11 March 2024).
• Chambers, S. (2019). Democracy and constitutional reform: Deliberative versus populist constitutionalism. Philosophy & Social Criticism, 45(9-10), 1116-1131. https://doi.org/10.1177/0191453719872294.
• CHP’yi Allah ıslah etsin. (2017, February 8), Milliyet. Retrieved from http://www.milliyet.com.tr/-chp-yi-allah-islah-etsin--siyaset-2392288 (Accessed: 19 March 2024).
• Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan: En doğrusunu millet söyler. (2022, November 4), Habertürk. Retrieved from https://www.haberturk.com/son-dakika-cumhurbaskani-erdogan-en-dogrusunu-millet-soyler-3535800 (Accessed: 21 March 2024).
• Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan referandum için sahaya iniyor. (2017, January 26), Milliyet. Retrieved from http://www.milliyet.com.tr/cumhurbaskani-erdogan-referandum-siyaset-2385313/ (Accessed: 23 March 2024).
• Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan’dan açıklama. (2017, March 2), Milliyet. Retrieved from http://www.milliyet.com.tr/cumhurbaskani-erdogan-dan-aciklama-siyaset-2406131/ (Accessed: 11 March 2024).
• Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan: Var dediklerinin hiç biri anayasa değişikliğinde yok. (2017, March 4), Milliyet. Retrieved from http://www.milliyet.com.tr/son-dakika-cumhurbaskani-siyaset-2407480/ (Accessed: 8 March 2024).
• Cumhurbaşkanlığı sözcüsü Kalın: Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan ve hükümet Kürt seçmenin güvenini kazanmıştır. (2017, April 19), Milliyet. Retrieved from http://www.milliyet.com.tr/cumhurbaskanligi-sozcusu-siyaset-2435278/ (Accessed: 6 March 2024).
• Cuzán, A. G. (2015). Five laws of politics. PS: Political Science & Politics, 48(3): 415-419. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096515000165.
• Çarkoğlu, A. & Melvin J. H. (2006). A spatial analysis of Turkish party preferences. Electoral Studies, 25 (2): 369-392. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2005.06.010.
• Çınar, M. (2018). From moderation to de-moderation: Democratic backsliding of the AKP in Turkey. In: Esposito, J., Zubaidah Rahim, L., Ghobadzadeh, N. (eds) The Politics of Islamism: Diverging visions and trajectories (pp. 127,157). Palgrave Macmillan, Cham.
• Çınar, M. & Sayin, Ç. (2014). Reproducing the paradigm of democracy in Turkey: parochial democratization in the decade of justice and development party. Turkish Studies, 15 (3): 365-385. https://doi.org/10.1080/14683849.2014.954743.
• De Vreese, C. H. (2007). A Spiral of Euroscepticism: The Media’s Fault? Acta Politica, 42: 271-286. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.ap.5500186.
• De Vreese, C. H. & Semetko, H. A. (2004). Political Campaigning in Referendums: Framing the Referendum Issue. London and New York: Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203335031.
• Erdoğan: Bu mantıkla giderlerse biz de 81 milyona gideriz. (2018, October 4), Hürriyet. Retrieved from https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/gundem/son-dakika-erdogan-bu-mantikla-giderlerse-biz-de-81-milyona-gideriz-40977078 (Accessed: 3 March 2024).
• Erdoğan: “50+1 mecburiyeti partilileri yanlış yollara sevk ediyor. (2023, November 18), Medyascope. Retrieved from https://medyascope.tv/2023/11/18/erdogan-milletimizi-hak-ettigi-sivil-anayasaya-kavusturacagiz/ (Accessed: 22 February 2024).
• Esen, B., & Gumuscu, S. (2016). Rising competitive authoritarianism in Turkey. Third World Quarterly, 37(9), 1581-1606. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2015.1135732.
• Eyalet varsa başbakanlığı bırakacağım. (2017, April 15), Milliyet Retrieved from http://www.milliyet.com.tr/eyalet-varsa-basbakanligi--siyaset-2432741/ (Accessed: 11 March 2024).
• Gamboa, L. (2022). Resisting Backsliding: Opposition Strategies Against the Erosion of Democracy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009164085.
• Gül'ü rahatlatan yasa kabul edildi. (2007, October 17), Milliyet, p. 14.
• Haggard, S., & Kaufman, R. (2021). Backsliding: Democratic regress in the contemporary world. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108957809.
• Hayırları çoğaltmalıyız. (2017, February 8), Milliyet. Retrieved from http://www.milliyet.com.tr/-hayirlarimizi-cogaltmaliyiz--siyaset-2392289/ (Accessed: 12 March 2024).
• Hibbs, D. A. (2000). “Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections.” Public Choice 104: 149-180. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005292312412.
• Hetherington, M. J. (1999). “The Effect of Political Trust on the Presidential Vote.” The American Political Science Review 93 (2): 311-326. https://doi.org/10.2307/2585398.
• Hobolt, S. B. (2007). Campaign information and voting behavior. in Claes H. de Vreese (ed.), The Dynamics of Referendum Campaigns: An International Perspective. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 84-114. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230591189_5.
• Ipsos'tan CNN Türk'e referandum sonrası anketi. (2017, April 19), CNN Turk. Retrieved from https://www.cnnturk.com/turkiye/ipsostan-cnn-turke-referandum-sonrasi-anketi?page=6
• Jenssen, A. T. (1998). Personal economies and economic expectations. In M. Gilljam, P. Pesonen, & A. Jenssen Todal (Eds.), To join or not to join: Three Nordic referendums on membership in the European Union (pp. 194–214). Oslo: Scandinavian University Press.
• Kapatma yok, ağır ihtar var. (2008, July 31), Hürriyet, p.1.
• Kaya Osmanbaşoğlu, G. (2015). The Politics of What You Wear on Your Head. Middle East Critique, 24:4, 389-406. https://doi.org/10.1080/19436149.2015.1066068.
• Kaya Osmanbaşoğlu, G, & Bekaroğlu, E. A. (2017). Türkiye’de Referandumlar. Ankara: Orion Kitabevi.
• Kılıçdaroğlu’ndan Erdoğan’a: Sen ülkeye ihanet ettin. (2010, July 26), Milliyet. Retrieved from http://www.milliyet.com.tr/kilicdaroglu-ndan-erdogan-a-sen-ulkeye-ihanet-ettin-siyaset-1268481/ (Accessed: 14 March 2024).
• Kılıçdaroğlu’ndan Erdoğan’a çağrı: Çık pazarlıkları anlat. (2010, August 20), Milliyet. Retrieved from http://www.milliyet.com.tr/kilicdaroglu-ndan-erdogan-a-cagri-cik-pazarliklari-anlat-siyaset-1278950/ (Accessed: 10 March 2024).
• Kılıçdaroğlu AYM’ye gitmeyeceklerini açıkladı. (2017, February 14), Milliyet. Retrieved from http://www.milliyet.com.tr/kilicdaroglu-ndan-basbakan-siyaset-2395997/ (Accessed: 11 March 2024).
• Kılıçdaroğlu ilk mitingini Amasya’da yaptı. (2017, March 15), Milliyet. Retrieved from http://www.milliyet.com.tr/kilicdaroglu-ilk-mitingini-siyaset-2414060/ (Accessed: 18 February 2024).
• Kulis: Cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimlerinde 40+1 formülü tartışılıyor. (2024, April 16), T24. Retrieved from https://t24.com.tr/haber/kulis-cumhurbaskanligi-secimlerinde-40-1-formulu-tartisiliyor,1160671#google_vignette (Accessed: 16 March 2024).
• LeDuc, L. (2002). “Opinion Change and Voting Behaviour in Referendums,” European Journal of Political Research 41: 711-732. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.00027.
• -----------. (2007). “Opinion Formation and Change in Referendum Campaigns,” in Claes H. de Vreese (ed.), The Dynamics of Referendum Campaigns: An International Perspective (pp. 21-44). Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230591189_2.
• ----------. (2009). “Campaign tactics and outcomes in referendums: A Comparative Analysis,” in M. Setälä and T. Schiller (eds.) Referendums and Representative Democracy: Responsiveness, Accountability and Deliberation (pp. 139-161). New York: Routledge.
• Leininger, A. (2019). Economic voting in direct democracy: A case study of the 2016 Italian constitutional referendum. Politics and Governance, 7, 306-333. https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v7i2.1917.
• Levitsky, S., & Way, L. A. (2002). Elections without democracy: The rise of competitive authoritarianism. Journal of Democracy, 13(2): 51-65. https://dx.doi.org/10.1353/jod.2002.0026.
• Lewis-Beck, M. S., & Stegmaier, M. (2000). Economic determinants of electoral outcomes. Annual Review of Political Science, 3(1): 183–219. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.3.1.183.
• Liderlerin referandum vaadleri seçim havası yaşattı. (2010, August 30), Milliyet. Retrieved from http://www.milliyet.com.tr/liderlerin-referandum-vaadleri-secim-havasi-yasatti-siyaset-1282855/.
• Lijphart, A. (1999). Patterns of Democracy: Government Forms and Performance in Thirty-six Countries. New Haven: Yale University Press.
• Meclisle bütün köprüler atılıyor. (2017, March 22), Milliyet. Retrieved from http://www.milliyet.com.tr/meclis-le-butun-kopruler-atiliyor-siyaset-2418051/ (Accessed: 11 March 2024).
• MHP’li Şandır: İktidar hesap vermekten kaçmak istiyor. (2010, July 19), Milliyet. Retrieved from http://www.milliyet.com.tr/mhp-li-sandir-iktidar-hesap-vermekten-kacmak-istiyor-siyaset-1265575/ (Accessed: 20 February 2024).
• MHP’li muhalifler hayır kampanyasını başlattı. (2017, February 18), Milliyet. Retrieved from http://www.milliyet.com.tr/mhp-li-muhalifler-hayir--siyaset-2398628/ (Accessed: 17 March 2024).
• Mughan, A. & Lacy, D. (2002). Economic Performance, Job Insecurity and Electoral Choice.” British Journal of Political Science 32 (3): 513-533. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123402000212.
• Müftüler-Baç, M. & Keyman, F. (2015). Turkey’s Unconsolidated Democracy: The Nexus between Democratisation and Majoritarianism in Turkey. Global Turkey in Europe III: Democracy, Trade, and the Kurdish Question in Turkey-EU Relations, 19 (1): 121.
• Neijens, P., van Praag, P., Bosveld, W. & Slot, J. (2007). “Turnout in Referendums: The Dutch Experience, An Analysis of Voter and Reeferendum Characteristics that Influence Turnout in Referendums,” in Claes H. de Vreese (ed.), The Dynamics of Referendum Campaigns: An International Perspective. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 142-158. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230591189_7.
• Öniş, Z. (2015). Monopolizing the Centre: The AKP and the Uncertain Path of Turkish Democracy.” The International Spectator 50 (2): 22-41. https://doi.org/10.1080/03932729.2015.1015335.
• Özbudun, E. (2015). Turkey’s judiciary and the drift toward competitive authoritarianism. The International Spectator, 50(2), 42-55. https://doi.org/10.1080/03932729.2015.1020651.
• Przeworski, A. (1991). Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Qvortrup, M. (2017). The rise of referendums: Demystifying direct democracy. Journal of Democracy, 28(3), 141-152. https://dx.doi.org/10.1353/jod.2017.0052.
• Referanduma vize. (2007, July 6), Milliyet, p. 18.
• Sadece 7 ilde hayır öne geçti. (2007, October 22), Milliyet, p. 13.
• Sezer’den veto. (2007, May 26), Milliyet, p. 23.
• Sözen, Y. (2008). Turkey between tutelary democracy and electoral authoritarianism. Private view, 13, 78-84.
• Taş, H. (2015). Turkey–from tutelary to delegative democracy. Third World Quarterly, 36(4), 776-791. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2015.1024450.
• Tezkan, M. (2010, August 13). Başbakan’ın seçim kozu: 2011’de son kez. Milliyet. Retrieved from http://www.milliyet.com.tr/basbakan-in-secim-kozu-2011-de-son-kez/mehmet-tezkan/yasam/magazinyazardetay/13.08.2010/1275943/default.htm (Accessed: 11 March 2024).
• Ugur‐Cinar, M. (2023). Elections and democracy in Turkey: Reconsidering competitive authoritarianism in the age of democratic backsliding. The Political Quarterly, 94(3), 445-451. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-923X.13309.
• Weyland, K. (2024). Democracy's Resilience to Populism's Threat: Countering Global Alarmism. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009432504.