Türkiye ve Endonezya’nın Orta Gelir Tuzağından Çıkışında Dış Ticaret Hadlerinin Rolü

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 2003–2023 döneminde Türkiye ve Endonezya’nın dış ticaret hadleri performansını karşılaştırmalı olarak incelemekte ve bu performansın ekonomik kalkınma üzerindeki etkisini değerlendirmektedir. Net dış ticaret hadleri (NTT), gelir dış ticaret hadleri (ITT) ve gelişmiş saf dış ticaret hadleri (APTT) gibi göstergelere dayalı analizler, Türkiye’nin sanayi ve yarı mamul odaklı yapısıyla ihracat hacmini artırdığını; ancak ithalata olan bağımlılığının dış ticaret hadleri üzerinde aşağı yönlü baskı oluşturduğunu göstermektedir. Buna karşılık, emtia ağırlıklı ihracat yapısına sahip olan Endonezya, küresel fiyat dalgalanmalarından daha fazla etkilenmekte ve dış ticaret hadleri bu dalgalanmalara güçlü biçimde tepki vermektedir. Orta gelir tuzağını aşabilmek için her iki ülkenin de sanayi politikalarını yeniden yapılandırarak ihracatta yüksek katma değerli sektörlere yönelmesi gerekmektedir. Çalışma, dış ticaret hadlerinin yalnızca dış ticaretin değil, aynı zamanda kalkınma politikalarının da temel bir bileşeni olduğunu vurgulamaktadır.

Keywords

• Dış ticaret hadleri
• Türkiye
• Endonezya
• Orta gelir tuzağı
• Gelir ticaret hadleri

The Role of Terms of Trade in Turkey and Indonesia's Exit from the Middle Income Trap

Abstract

This study comparatively examines the foreign trade terms performance of Turkey and Indonesia over the period 2003–2023 and evaluates the impact of this performance on economic development. Analyses based on indicators such as the net terms of trade (NTT), income terms of trade (ITT), and advanced pure terms of trade (APTT) show that Turkey, with its industry- and semifinished goods-focused structure, has increased its export volume; however, its dependence on imports has put downward pressure on its terms of trade. Indonesia, on the other hand, is more vulnerable to external shocks because of its commodity-oriented export composition, and its terms of trade are strongly affected by global price fluctuations. Both countries should improve their terms of trade by restructuring industrial policies and shifting toward high value-added sectors in exports to overcome the middle-income trap. The study highlights that terms of trade are a fundamental component not only of foreign trade but also of development policies.

Keywords

• Terms of trade
• Turkey
• Indonesia
• Middle-income trap
• Income terms of trade

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