Impact of High-Speed Railways on Student Preference among Turkish Provinces: A Gravity Model Approach

Year 2025, Volume: 17 Issue: 1, 17 - 28, 03.08.2025

Şerife Deniz Kolat , Deniz Göktaş Jülide Andiç

https://doi.org/10.33818/ier.1701010

Abstract

In Türkiye, students are admitted to universities through centralized examinations, which enable them to choose cities outside the residential town. Over the past two decades, Türkiye has expanded higher education by establishing new universities and augmenting the enrolment capacities of existing universities. Therefore, each province has at least one state university, depending on the potential demand for higher education in the corresponding region. The establishment of new universities around the country has led to an increase in student mobility among provinces.
We employ a gravity model to analyse higher education student mobility among Turkish provinces, positing that both cities' distance and potential student population influence student movement between the provinces. We utilise the R package thestats, created by Çavuş and Aydın (2022), which is based on the YÖK-ATLAS data from 2018 to 2020. Our findings suggest that the gravity model explains the student flows among the provinces of Türkiye.

Keywords

Gravity models , higher education , panel data analysis

References

• Arvis, J. F. and B. Shepherd (2013). The Poisson quasi-maximum likelihood estimator: A solution to the “adding up” problem in gravity models. Applied Economics Letters, 20(6), 515-519.
• Aydın, U. and B. Ülengin (2022). Analysing air cargo flows of Turkish domestic routes: A comparative analysis of gravity models. Journal of Air Transport Management, 102, 102217.
• Bekaroğlu, C. (2021). Impact of Distance on State University Enrolments: A Panel Data Analysis. Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 19(40), 450-488. Çavuş, M. and O.Aydın (2023). thestats: An Open-Data R Package for Exploring Turkish Higher Education Statistics. Yuksekogretim Dergisi, 13(1), 1–7. Çavuş, M., and O.Aydın. (2022). thestats: R Package for Exploring Turkish Higher Education Statistics (p. 0.1.0) [Dataset].
• Cooke, T. J., and P. Boyle (2011). The Migration of High School Graduates to College. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 33(2), 202–213.
• Council of Higher Education (YÖK). (2024). Türkiye Yükseköğretim Raporu 2024. Ankara: YÖK Publications. Cullinan, J., D. Flannery, S. Walsh and S. Mc Coy (2013). Distance effects, social class and the decision to participate in higher education in Ireland, Economic and Social Review, 44, 19–51.
• Cummings, W. K. (1993). “Global trends in oversea study.” In C. D. Goodwin (ed.), International Ege, A. A. (2020). Analyzing the incidence and causes of field of study mismatch in Turkey: evidence from TURKSTAT labor force surveys. A Thesis Submitted to The Graduate School of Social Sciences of Middle East Technical University by Ahmet Alper Ege)
• Erol A., H. Yergin and M Mercan (2012). Üniversite öğrencilerinin üniversite tercihlerinin belirleyicileri: Hakkâri örneği. Sosyal ve Beşeri Bilimler Dergisi, 4(2), 1-10.
• European Commission. (2024). Higher Education and Skills Strategy for Turkey. Brussels: European Commission.
• Faggian, A. and R.S. Franklin (2014). Human capital redistribution in the USA: the migration of the college-bound, Spatial Economic Analysis, 9, 376–395.
• Frenette, M. (2006). Too far to go on? Distance to school and university participation, Education Economics, 14, 31–58.
• Gibbons, S. and A. Vignoles (2012). Geography, Choice and Participation in Higher Education in England, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 42, 98–113.
• Gül, H. And F. Yerdelen Tatoğlu (2019). Turizm Talebinin Panel Çekim Modeli Çerçevesinde Analizi. Turizm Akademik Dergisi, 6(1), 49-60.
• Gür, Bekir S. (2022). Transition to Higher Education: Student Mobility Between Regions and Cities, Journal of University Research, August 2022, 5(2), 130-139.
• Hwang, C.C. and G. C. Shiao (2011). Analyzing air cargo flows of international routes: An empirical study of Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport. Journal of Transport Geography 19 (4), 738–744.
• Iwasaki, I. and K. Suganuma (2013). "A Gravity Model of Russian Trade: The Role of Foreign Direct Investment and Socio-Cultural Similarity," RRC Working Paper Series 40, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
• Kızıltan, A., and H. Şahin (2020). A literature review on the main problems encountered in applying the gravity model and empirical solution strategies. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, (64), 175-190.
• Kjellström, C. and H. Regnér (1999). The effects of geographical distance on the decision to enrol in university education, Scandinavian Journal of Educational Research, 43, 335–348.
• Kolat Ş. D. and D. Göktaş (2024). “Effect of 1992 University Expansion on Regional Innovation Ecosystems” Innovation Ecosystem: Definitions, Actors and Applications, Konya: Çizgi Yayınevi
• Newton, I. (1687). Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica. London: Streater.
• OECD (2024). Education at a Glance 2024: OECD Indicators. Paris: OECD Publishing.
• Ordovensky, J. (1995). Effects of institutional attributes on enrolment choice: implications for postsecondary vocational education, Economics of Education Review, 14, 335–350.
• ÖSYM (2023) Yükseköğretim Kurumları Sınavı (YKS) Kılavuzu. https://dokuman.osym.gov.tr/pdfdokuman/2023/YKS/kilavuz_30032023.pdf Ravenstein, E. George (1885). The Laws of Migration, By John Corbett, in Spatially Integrated Social Science. Sá, C., R. J. G. M Florax, and P. Rietveld (2004). Determinants of the regional demand for higher education in the Netherlands: a gravity model approach, Regional Studies, 38, 375–392.
• Sá, Carla; F. Raymond;and P. Rietveld (2007). "Living-arrangement and university decisions of Dutch young adults". http://hdl.handle.net/1822/6824
• Sá, C., D. A. Tavares, E. Justino and A. Amaral (2011). Higher education (related) choices in Portugal: joint decisions on institution type and leaving home. Studies in Higher Education, 36, 689–703.
• Sá Carla, and M. T. A. França (2023). Factors associated with the mobility of college students in Brazil: an analysis using a gravity model, Higher Education, 85, 203–223.
• Silva, J. S., and S.Tenreyro (2006). The log of gravity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(4), 641–658. Spiess, C. K. and K. Wrohlich (2010). Does distance determine who attends a university in Germany? Economics of Education Review, 29, 470–479.
• Suhonen, T. (2014). Field-of-study choice in higher education: does distance matter? Spatial Economic Analysis, 9, 355–375.
• Tatoğlu Yerdelen, F. (2024). Panel Data Econometrics. Türkiye, İstanbul: BETA Publishing
• World Bank. (2024). Turkey’s Innovation and Knowledge Economy Review. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.