MEASURING INCOME AND PRICE ELASTICITY OF TURKISH TOURISM SECTOR

Year 2012, Volume: 13 Issue: 1, 45 - 55, 01.12.2012

Burçak Müge Tunaer Vural

Abstract

Tourism has been one of the promising industries of Turkish economy with its huge potential for generating foreign exchange, improving balance of payment, and providing employment opportunities. This research aims to present empirical evidence on income and demand elasticities of international tourism demand for Turkey. Arellano – Bond Dynamic panel estimation procedure is employed to estimate demand function of Turkish tourism by considering 20 major clients, accounting for more than 80% of tourism inflows. Empirical findings suggest that there exists important word of mouth effect. On the other hand, both income and price elasticity of demand for Turkish tourism in the short run are low, in the long run however, income elasticity increases whereas price elasticity of demand remains low

Keywords

Tourism Demand, Elasticity, Dynamic Modelling, Panel Data, Turkey

TÜRKİYE’DE TURİZM SEKTÖRÜNÜN TALEP VE GELİR ESNEKLİKLERİNİN ÖLÇÜMÜ

Abstract

Turizm sektörü, yüksek döviz kazandırma potansiyeli, dış ticaret dengesinin kurulmasına yardımcı rolü ve sunduğu istihdam fırsatları bakımlarından Türkiye ekonomisi için büyük önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye turizmine olan uluslararası talebin gelir ve talep esnekliklerine ilişkin ampirik bulgular sunmaktır. Çalışmada Arellano – Bond dinamik panel tahmin yöntemi kullanılarak, Türkiye’den en fazla turizm hizmeti talep eden ve toplamda Türkiye’yi ziyaret eden turist sayısının %80’inden fazlasını oluşturan 20 ülke incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular Türk turizminde kulaktan kulağa pazarlama faaliyetlerinin önemli etkisi olduğunu işaret etmektedir (repütasyon etkisi). Ayrıca, hem gelir hem de fiyat esneklikleri kısa vadede oldukça düşük olduğu, gelir esnekliği uzun vadede artarken, talep esnekliğinin düşük kaldığı gözlenmiştir

Keywords

Turizm Talebi, Esneklik, Dinamik Modelleme, Panel Veri, Türkiye

References

• Akış, S. (1998). A Compact Econometric Model of Tourism Demand for Turkey. Tourism Management, 25 (5), 565 – 580.
• Arellano, M. & Bond, S. (1991). Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations. Review of Economic Studies, 58 (2), 277 – 297.
• Aslan, A., Kaplan, M. & Kula, F. (2009). International Tourism Demand for Turkey: A Panel Data Approach. Research Journal of International Studies, 29 (1), 65 – 73.
• Garin Munoz, T. (2006). Inbound International Tourism to Canary Islands: A Dynamic Panel Data Model. Tourism Management, 27 (2), 281 – 291.
• Görmüş, Ş. & Göçer, İ. (2010). The Socio – Economic Determinant of Tourism Demand in Turkey: A Panel Data Approach. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 55 (1), 88 – 99.
• İçöz, O., Var, T. & Kozak, M. (1998). Tourism Demand in Turkey. Annals of Tourism Research, 25 (1), 236 – 239.
• Kim, S. & Song, H. (1998). Analysis of Tourism Demand in South Korea: A Cointegration and Error Correction Approach. Economics, 3 (1), 25 – 41. Tourism
• Kulendran, N. & King, M. (1997). Forecasting International Quarterly Tourism Flows Using Error Correction and Time Series Models. International Journal of Forecasting, 13, 319 – 327.
• Kulendran, N. & Witt, S.F. (2001). Cointegration Versus Least Squares Regression’, Annals of Tourism Research, 28 (2), 291 – 311.
• Laeven, L. & Fabian, V. (2012). Systemic Banking Crises Database: An Update, IMF Working Paper, WP/12/163, International Monetary Fund.
• Lim, C. (1997). Review of International Tourism Demand Model. Annals of Tourism Reseach, 24 (4), 835 – 849.
• Martin, C.A. & Witt, S.F. (1988). Substitute Prices in Models of Tourism Demand. Annals of Tourism Research, 15 (2), 255 – 268.
• Papatheorodorou, A. (1999). The Demand for International Tourism in the Mediterranean Region, Applied Economics, 31 (5), 619 – 630.
• Patsouratis, V., Frangouli, Z. & Anastasopoulos, G. (2005). Competition in Tourism Among the Mediterranean Countries. Applied Economics, 37 (16), 1865 – 1870.
• Sinclair, M. T. (1998). Tourism and Economic Development: A Survey. The Journal of Development Studies, 34, 1 – 51.
• Song, H. & Li, G. (2008). Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: A Review of Recent Research. Tourism Management, 29 (2), 203 – 220.
• Song, H., Romilly, P. & Liu, X. (2000). An Empirical Study of Outbound Tourism Demand in the UK. Applied Economics, 32 (4), 611 – 624.
• Song, H., Witt, S.F. & Jensen, T.C. (2003). Tourism Forecasting: Accuracy of Alternative Econometric Models. International Journal of Forecasting, 19 (1) 123 – 141.
• Witt, S. & Witt, C. (1995). Forecasting Tourism Demand: A Review of Empirical Research. International Journal of Forecasting, 11 (3), 447 – 475.