Türkiye'de Yurtiçi Özel Tasarruf Davranışının Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri 2004-2018

Year 2020, Issue: 21, 413 - 436, 01.01.2020

Musa Atgür

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de 2004-2018 dönemi için yurtiçi özel tasarruf davranışının makroekonomik belirleyicilerini incelemeyi amaçlamıştır. Bu amaçla çalışmada ekonometrik yöntem olarak Johansen eşbütünleşme testi, tam modifiye edilmiş sıradan en küçük kareler tahmin yöntemleri ile birlikte vektör hata düzeltme modeli tahmininden hareketle Granger Nedensellik test yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Tam modifiye edilmiş sıradan en küçük kareler tahmin sonuçları reel gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla GSYİH , özel tüketim harcamaları, enflasyon oranı ve reel faiz oranının yurtiçi özel tasarruf davranışının makroekonomik belirleyicileri olduğunu göstermiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye'de reel gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla GSYİH , enflasyon oranı ve reel faiz oranı yurtiçi özel tasarruf davranışını pozitif yönde etkilediğini göstermiş, özel tüketim harcamaları ise negatif etkilemektedir. Elde edilen bu sonuçlar, hem Klasik İktisadın tasarruf kuramını hem Keynesyen İktisadın tasarruf kuramını desteklemektedir.

Keywords

Türkiye, yurtiçi özel tasarruf davranışı, makroekonomi, belirleyici.

Macroeconomic Determinants of Domestic Private Savings Behavior in Turkey 2004-2018

Abstract

This study aimed to examine macroeconomic determinants of domestic private saving behavior in Turkey for the period 2004-2018. For this purpose as the econometric method, Johansen cointegration test and full modified ordinary least squares estimation methods along with the vector error correction model estimation Granger Causality test methods were used. Both the full modified ordinary least squares estimation results showed that the real gross domestic product GDP , private consumption expenditures, inflation rate and real interest rate are macroeconomic determinants of domestic private saving behavior. The findings showed that the real gross domestic product GSYİH , inflation rate and real interest rate positively affect domestic private saving behavior. Private consumption expenditures affect negatively. These results support both savings of the theory of classical economics and the theory of savings of Keynesian economics in Turkey.

Keywords

Turkey, domestic private savings behavior, macroeconomy, determinant.

References

• Abasimi, I., ve Martin, A. Y. A., (2018). Determinants of National Sa- ving in Four West African Countries. International Journal of Eco- nomics and Finance, 10(5), 67-74.
• Adelakun, O. J. (2015). An investigation of the determinants of savings and investment in Nigeria", International Economics and Business, 1(2), 1-16.
• Ahmad, F., (2015). Determinants of savings behavior in Pakistan: Long run - Short run association and causality. Timisoara Journal of Eco- nomics and Business, 8(1), 103-136.
• Alvarez-Cuadrado, F., ve Long, N. V. (2009). The Relative Income Hypothesis. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 35, 1489-1501.
• Arıç, K. H. (2015). Determinants of Savings in the APEC Countries. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2(603), 113-122.
• Barış, S. (2016). Yurtiçi Tasarrufları Belirleyen Faktörler ve Türkiye İçin Bir Değerlendirme (1990-2016). Journal of International Manage- ment, Educational and Economics Perspectives, 4(2), 39–57.
• Brown, S., Gray, D., ve Roberts, J. (2015) The relative income hypothe- sis: A comparison of methods. Economics Letters, 130, 47-50.
• Coleman, A. (2006). The life-cycle model, savings and growth. Reserve Bank https://www.rbnz.govt.nz//media/reservebank/ les/publications/seminars%20and%20workshops/14nov06/2895 718.pdf, (19.12.2018). New Zealand, fi
• Çolak, Ö. F., ve Öztürkler, H. (2012). Tasarrufun belirleyicileri: Küresel tasarruf eğiliminde değişim ve Türkiye’de hanehalkı tasarruf eği- liminin analizi. Bankacılar Dergisi, 82, 3-44.
• Dirschmid, W., ve Glatzer, E. (2004). Determinants of the Household Saving Rate in Austria. Monetary Policy & the Economy, Q1/O4, 25- 38.
• Duesenberry, J. S. (1949). Income, saving, and the theory of consumer behaviour, Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
• Epaphra, M. (2014). Empirical investigation of the determinants of Tanzania’s national savings. International Journal of Economics & Management Sciences, 1(4), 1-9.
• Farahani, H. A., Rahiminezhad, A., Same, L., ve Immannezhad, K. (2010). A comparison of partial least squares (PLS) and ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions in predicting of couples mental health based on their communicational patterns. Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences, 5 (2010), 1459–1463.
• Friedman, M. (1957). A Theory of the Consumption Function, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
• Gatt, W. (2014). The determinants of household saving behaviour in Malta", https://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/57707/1/ MPRA_paper_57707.pdf, (15.12.2018). No. 57707,
• Gedela, S. P. R. (2012). Determinants of Saving Behaviour in Rural and Tribal Households (An Empirical Analysis of Visakhapatnam District). International Journal of Research in Social Sciences, 2(3), 108-128.
• Imoughele, L. E., ve Ismaila, M. (2014). An Econometric analysis of the determinants of private domestic savings in Nigeria (1981 -2012). International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, 5(4), 12-21.
• Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. Jour- nal of Economic Dynamics and Control, (12), 231-254.
• Keynes, J. M. (1936). The general theory of employment, ınterest and money, London: Macmillan.
• Kolasa, A., ve Liberda, B. (2014). Determinants of saving in Poland: Are they different than in other OECD countries?. Working Papers No. http://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/inf/wyd/WP/WNE_WP130 .pdf , (15.12.2018). 13/2014, (130),
• Muradoglu, G., ve Taskın, F. (1996). Differences in households savings behavior: evidence from industrial and developing countries. The Developing Economies, 34(2), 138-153.
• Niculescu-Aron, I., ve Mihăescu, C. (2012). Determinants of household savings in EU: What policies for ıncreasing savings?. Procedia - So- cial and Behavioral Sciences, 58 (2012), 83–492.
• Ogbokor, C. A., ve Samahiya, O. M. (2014). A time series analysis of the determinants of savings in Namibia. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 5(8), 52-63.
• Ozcan, K. M., Gunay, A., ve Ertac, S. (2003). Determinants of private savings behaviour in Turkey. Applied Economics, 35, 1405–1416.
• Ozioma E. F., Idenyi, O. S., Chinyere, U. C., ve Eze, A. O. (2016). The determinants of domestic private savings in Nigeria. British Jour- nal of Economics, Management & Trade, 15(2), 1-16.
• Samantaraya, A., ve Patra, S. K. (2014). Determinants of household savings in India: An empirical analysis using ARDL approach. Hindawi Publishing Corporation Economics Research International, s.1-8.
• Shrestha, R. P. (2010). Private savings behavior in Nepal: Long-term determinants and short-run dynamics. Economic Review, Occasio- nal Paper, 16-31.
• Soharwardi, M. A., Khan, A. S., ve Sherani, M. K. (2014). Determinants of household savings: A case study of Yazman-Pakistan", Interna- tional Journal of Scientific & Engineering Research, 12(5), 1624-1630.
• Tekin, İ. (2017). Doğu Asya ve Türkiye’de yurtiçi tasarrufların belirle- yicileri: Karşılaştırmalı bir değerlendirme. Uluslararası Yönetim İk- tisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 13(2), 365-384.
• Tunay, K. B. (2017). Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde hane halkı tasarruflarının makro ekonomik belirleyicileri. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 54(633), 61-78.
• Wan, J. (2011). Saving thought, theory and evidence. CAES Working Paper Series WP-2011-012.
• Zhuk, M. (2015). Macroeconomic determinants of household savings in Ukraine. Economics and Sociology, 8(3), 41-54.