Türkiye’de İthalat Odaklı Büyüme Hipotezi

Year 2021, Issue: 26, 401 - 416, 30.04.2021

Servet Kapçak Murat Güven

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, ithalat ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi Türkiye’de 1980- 2017 döneminde analiz etmektir. Çalışmada sabit sermaye yatırımları, işgücü ve finansal gelişme ekonomik büyüme modeline diğer açıklayıcı değişkenler olarak ilave edilmektedir. Burada ithalata dayalı büyüme hipotezi Türkiye ekonomisi için ARDL sınır testi eşbütünleşme yaklaşımı, FMOLS tahmincisi ve Granger nedensellik metodu ile test edilmektedir. Ampirik sonuçlara göre; değişkenler arasında bir eşbütünleşme söz konusudur. Ampirik sonuçlar aynı zamanda ithalatın ekonomik büyümeyi uzun dönemde negatif etkilediğini ortaya koymaktadır. İthalat ile ekonomik büyüme arasında bir nedensellik ilişkisi söz konusu değildir. Tüm sonuçlar ithalat odaklı büyüme hipotezinin Türk ekonomisi için geçerli olmadığını göstermektedir. İhracat odaklı büyüme yaklaşımının sürdürülebilir büyüme için uygun olacağı önemli bir politika önerisi olarak çıkarılabilir

Keywords

Türkiye, İthalat, Ekonomik Büyüme, ARDL Sınır Testi, FMOLS, Nedensellik.

The Import-led Growth Hypothesis in Turkey

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze, the link between import and economic growth in Turkey over the period of 1980-2017. In the study, fixed capital investments, labor force and financial development are included in economic growth model as other explanotary variables. The import-led growth hypothesis is tested for Turkish economy through the ARDL bounds test, FMOLS estimation technique and Granger causality method. According to the empirical results, there exists a cointegration between the variables. Empirical results also reveal that import negatively affects economic growt in the long run. There exists no causality between import and economic growth. All the results suggest that the import-led growth hypothesis is not valid for Turkish economy. It is possible to derive an important policy implication that the export-oriented growth approach is favorable for sustainable growth.

Keywords

Keywords: Turkey, Imports, Economic Growth, ARDL Bounds Test, FMOLS, Causality.

References

• Awokuse, T.O. (2007). Causality between Exports, Imports and Economic Growth: Evidence from Transition Economies. Economic Letters, 94, 389-395.
• Bakari, S. and Sofien, T. (2019). Does Agricultural Trade Promote Chinese Economic Growth? ARDL Approach. MPRA Paper No. 94614, Munich Personal Repec Archive, 1-15.
• Berke, B. (2012). Döviz Kuru İNKB100 Endeksi İlişkisi: Yeni Bir Test. MaliyeDergisi, 16(3), 243-257.
• Bhagwati, J.N. (1988). Protectionism. The MIT Press, Cambridge, M.A.
• Chen, J. and Dong, B. (2012). A Non Parametric Estimation on The Effects of Import and Export Trade to Economic Growth in China. International Work Shop on Information and Electronics Engineering (IWIEE), Procedia Engineering, 29, 952-956.
• Dıckey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 74, 427-431.
• Dwi, K. (2017). The Effect of Export, Import and Investment to Economic Growth of Riau Islands Indonesia. International Journal of Economicsand Financial Issues, 7(4), 663-667.
• Easterly, W.R. (2007). Free Market and Economic Development. International Symposium on Poverty Reductionand Beyond Development Strategies For Low Income Countries.
• Granger, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations By Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods, Econometrica, 37, 424-438.
• Grosh, S. (2008). Import Demand of Crude Oil and Economic Growth: Evidence from India. Energy Policy, 37, 699-702.
• Helpman, E. and Krugman, P. (1985). Market Structureand Trade. MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass.
• Hye, Q.M.A., Wizarat, S. and Lau, W.Y. (2013). Trade-Led Growth Hypothesis: An Empirical analysis of South Asian Countries. Economic Modelling, 35,654– 660.
• Yıldız, R. ve Yıldırım, E. (2010). Tez Yazma Makale Hazırlama ve Yayınlama Kılavuzu. Detay Yayıncılık, 4. Baskı, İstanbul.
• Makum, K.K. (2018). Imports, Remittances, Direct Foreign İnvestment and Economic Growth in Republic of The Fiji Islands: An Empirical Analysis Using ARDL Approach. Kasets Journal of Social Sciences, 39, 439-447.
• Mujahid, N., Begam, A., Shamshir, M. and Zeb, A. (2019). Import-Led Growth Hypothesis: A Case Study of Pakistan. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development. 10(2), 20-28.
• Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
• Phillips, P.C.B and Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335 346.
• Phillips, P.C. and Hansen, B.E. (1990). Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I (1) Processes. The Review of Economic Studies, 57, 99-125.
• Rahman, M.M. and Mamun, S.A.K. (2016). Energy Use, International Trade and Economic Growth Nexus in Australia: New Evidence From an Extended Growth Model. Renewable And Sustainable Energy Reviews, 64, 806-816.
• Ramos, F.F.R., (2001). Exports, Imports, and Economic Growthin Portugal: Evidence from Causality and Cointegration Analysis. Economic Modelling, 18, 613-623.
• Sandalcılar, A.R. ve Cihan, K. (2018). Türkiye’de İthalatın, İktisadi Büyümenin ve Elektrik Tüketiminin İhracat Üzerindeki Etkilerinin Analizi. Küresel İktisat ve İşletme Çalışmaları Dergisi, 7(14), 25-37.
• Sato, M. and Fukushige, T. (2010). The North Korean economy: Escape From Import-Led Growth. Journal of Asian Economics, 22, 76-83.
• Stiglitz, J. E. (2007). Making Globalization Work for Developing Countries. W.W. Norton & Company, Inc.
• Şimşek, T. (2016). Türkiye’de Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Ardl Sınır Testi İle İncelenmesi. Journal of International Management, Educational and Economics Perspectives 4(1), 69-78.
• Taghavi, M., Goudarzi, M. and Gasti, H.P. (2012). Study on the Impact of ExportandImport on Economic Growth in Iran. Journal of Basic and Applied Scientific Research, 2(12), 12787-12794.
• Tahir, M., Khan, I. and Shah, A.M. (2015). Foreig Remittances, Foreign Direct Investment, Foreign Imports and Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis. Arab Econmics and Business Journal, 10, 82-89.
• Taş, İ. (2013). Büyümenin Dinamiği Üzerine Bir Nedensellik Analizi. Akademik Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 1(1), 69-86.
• Tunçsiper, B. ve Reçber, E. Z. (2016). Dış Ticaret ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. International Journal of Social Sciences and Education Research, 3(2), 620-630.
• TÜİK (2019). İşgücü Verileri, https://www.tuik.gov.tr
• Yurdakul, F. ve Ucar, B. (2015). The Relationship between Current Deficit and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study on Turkey. Procedia, Economics and Finance, 101-108.
• World Bank (2019). World Development Indictors, https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators