Türkiye’de İthalat Odaklı Büyüme Hipotezi

Yıl 2021, Sayı: 26, 401 - 416, 30.04.2021

Servet Kapçak Murat Güven

Öz

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, ithalat ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi Türkiye’de 1980- 2017 döneminde analiz etmektir. Çalışmada sabit sermaye yatırımları, işgücü ve finansal gelişme ekonomik büyüme modeline diğer açıklayıcı değişkenler olarak ilave edilmektedir. Burada ithalata dayalı büyüme hipotezi Türkiye ekonomisi için ARDL sınır testi eşbütünleşme yaklaşımı, FMOLS tahmincisi ve Granger nedensellik metodu ile test edilmektedir. Ampirik sonuçlara göre; değişkenler arasında bir eşbütünleşme söz konusudur. Ampirik sonuçlar aynı zamanda ithalatın ekonomik büyümeyi uzun dönemde negatif etkilediğini ortaya koymaktadır. İthalat ile ekonomik büyüme arasında bir nedensellik ilişkisi söz konusu değildir. Tüm sonuçlar ithalat odaklı büyüme hipotezinin Türk ekonomisi için geçerli olmadığını göstermektedir. İhracat odaklı büyüme yaklaşımının sürdürülebilir büyüme için uygun olacağı önemli bir politika önerisi olarak çıkarılabilir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Türkiye, İthalat, Ekonomik Büyüme, ARDL Sınır Testi, FMOLS, Nedensellik.

The Import-led Growth Hypothesis in Turkey

Öz

The aim of this study is to analyze, the link between import and economic growth in Turkey over the period of 1980-2017. In the study, fixed capital investments, labor force and financial development are included in economic growth model as other explanotary variables. The import-led growth hypothesis is tested for Turkish economy through the ARDL bounds test, FMOLS estimation technique and Granger causality method. According to the empirical results, there exists a cointegration between the variables. Empirical results also reveal that import negatively affects economic growt in the long run. There exists no causality between import and economic growth. All the results suggest that the import-led growth hypothesis is not valid for Turkish economy. It is possible to derive an important policy implication that the export-oriented growth approach is favorable for sustainable growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Keywords: Turkey, Imports, Economic Growth, ARDL Bounds Test, FMOLS, Causality.

Kaynakça

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