Triggering hazards and vulnerability in disasters

Öz

Disaster hazards are events caused by man and nature. These hazards either occur as a single event or develop sequentially and trigger each other. When disaster hazards trigger each other, the relationships between the hazards become more complicated, and the direction and magnitude of the hazard change. While it is very difficult to study single disaster hazards scientifically, this difficulty becomes even greater with multiple hazards. This study was conducted to shed light on the complex conceptual structure of triggering hazards and vulnerability in disasters. In this study the relationships among multiple hazards; event trees, interaction matrices, and probabilistic models, which are among the methods used to evaluate the triggering hazards, are presented. In this way, hazard and vulnerability analyses, which are the two important steps in disaster risk management studies, were explained in the framework of triggering hazards.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Disaster
• triggering disaster hazard
• vulnerability
• risk management

Afetlerde tetikleyen tehlikeler ve zarar görebilirlik

Öz

Afet tehlikesi, afetlere neden olan insan ve doğa kaynaklı olaylardır. Afet tehlikeleri ya bir tek olay olarak ortaya çıkar ya da birbirini tetikleyerek peşi sıra gelişir. Afet tehlikeleri birbirini tetiklerse tehlikeler arası ilişkiler karmaşıklaşmakta, zarar görebilirliğin yönü ve boyutu değişmektedir. Tekli afet tehlikelerini bilimsel olarak incelemek oldukça zor iken, çoklu tehlikelerde bu zorluk daha da artmaktadır. Bu çalışma, afetlerde tetikleyen tehlikelerin ve zarar görebilirliğin karmaşık kavramsal yapısını aydınlatabilmek amacıyla gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışmada çoklu tehlike ilişkilerinin gösterimi yapılmış; tetikleyen tehlikeleri değerlendirme yöntemlerinden olay ağaçları, etkileşim matrisleri ve olasılıksal modeller tanıtılmıştır. Böylelikle afet risk yönetimi çalışmalarının önemli iki basamağını oluşturan tehlike ve zarar görebilirlik incelemesi tetikleyen tehlikeler kapsamında yapılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Afet
• birbirini tetikleyen afet tehlikesi
• zarar görebilirlik
• risk

Kaynakça

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