Unraveling the Interplay between Trade Openness, Energy Consumption, Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Iran: A Bootstrap Analysis

Abstract

Aim: The impact of trade openness on the economic development of countries is a subject that needs to be investigated. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between openness, total energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, government expenditure, and economic growth in Iran between 1980-2023.
Method: In this study, short and long term coefficients were estimated using the ARDL bounds test. Additionally, the cointegration relationship between the variables was analyzed using the Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) cointegration test.
Results: Empirical findings show that trade openness has a positive contribution to economic growth in the short and long term. Moreover, total energy consumption increases economic growth. However, the effect of renewable energy on economic growth is statistically insignificant. Additionally, government expenditure positively affects economic growth, which is supported by the Keynesian perspective. According to the bootstrap causality analysis results, there is a two-way causality relationship between trade openness and economic growth. In addition, government expenditure is the causal of economic growth.
Conclusion: As a result of the findings, it is recommended to increase trade openness in Iran and to produce policies that will bring new international agreements and trade associations.

Keywords

• Economic Growth
• Trade Openness
• Renewable Energy Consumption
• Government Expenditure
• Bootstrap Causality Analysis

İran’da Dışa Açıklık, Enerji Tüketimi, Kamu Harcaması ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Etkileşimin Çözümlenmesi: Bootstrap Analizi

Abstract

Amaç: Dışa açıklığın etkisi ülkelerin ekonomik gelişiminde araştırılması gereken bir konudur. Bu çalışmanın amacı İran’da 1980-2023 yılları arasında dışa açıklık, toplam enerji tüketimi, yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi, kamu harcaması ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisini araştırmaktır.
Yöntem: Çalışmada kısa ve uzun dönem katsayıları ARDL sınır testi yardımıyla tahmin edilmiştir. Ayrıca değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisi Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) eşbütünleşme testi ile analiz edilmiştir.
Bulgular: Ampirik bulgularda, dışa açıklık, kısa ve uzun dönemde ekonomik büyümeye pozitif katkısı vardır. Ayrıca toplam enerji tüketimi ekonomik büyümeyi artırmaktadır. Ancak yenilenebilir enerji ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi istatistiki olarak anlamsızdır. Ek olarak, Keynesyen bakış açısıyla desteklenen bir şekilde, kamu harcaması ekonomik büyümeyi pozitif etkilemektedir. Bootstrap nedensellik analizi sonuçlarına göre dışa açıklıkla ekonomik büyüme arasında çift-yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. Ayrıca kamu harcaması ekonomik büyümenin nedenselidir.  
Sonuç: Bulgular neticesinde, İran’da ticaret serbestleşmesinin artırılarak, yeni uluslararası anlaşmalar ile ticaret birlikteliklerini getirecek politikaların üretilmesi önerilmektedir.

Keywords

• Yenilenebilir Enerji Tüketimi
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Dışa Açıklık
• Kamu Harcaması
• Bootstrap Nedensellik Analizi

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