Financial Development and Economic Growth in BRICS Countries and Turkey: A Panel Data Analysis

Abstract

In the last few decades, although there have been many studies examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth, it seems that no consensus has been reached due to the diversity of variables and the methods used in the analyses. This article examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth (GDP) by using panel data analysis for BRICS Countries and Turkey. The analysis covers 21 years between 1996-2016. Variables used for financial development are Morgan Stanley Capital International Index (MSCI), Credits (CREDIT), money supply (BMONEY), foreign trade (TRADE). 

According to the result of the analysis; MSCI is the only variable that statistically significant and so affects GDP positively both in the long-term and the short-term. BMONEY and TRADE variables are statistically significant in the short-term, but not in the long-term. While TRADE affects GDP positively, BMONEY affects growth negatively in the short-term. CREDIT is not statistically significant neither in the short-term nor in the long-term. There is unidirectional causality from MSCI to GDP, from GDP to MBROAD, from MSCI to TRADE and from MBROAD to TRADE. There is not a causality between MBROAD and MSCI, while there is a bidirectional causality between TRADE and GDP. Therefore, it is not certain if financial growth is the determinant of economic growth for selected variables and the countries in the period of 1996-2016.

Keywords

• Economic Growth,Financial Development,Panel Data Analysis,BIRCS Countries,Turkey

BRICS Ülkeleri ve Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme ve İktisadi Büyüme: Bir Panel Veri Analizi

Abstract

Son birkaç on yılda, finansal gelişme ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi inceleyen çok sayıda çalışma olmasına rağmen, kullanılan değişkenler ve yöntemlerdeki çeşitlilik nedeniyle tam bir fikir birliğine ulaşılamamıştır. Bu çalışmada, BRICS Ülkeleri ve Türkiye için finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme (GDP) arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Analiz, 1996-2016 yılları arasındaki 21 yıllık dönemi kapsamaktadır. Finansal gelişme için kullanılan değişkenler, Morgan Stanley Capital International Index (MSCI), krediler (CREDIT), para arzı (BMONEY), dış ticaret (TRADE)’tir.

Analiz sonucuna göre; MSCI istatistiksel olarak anlamalı olup hem uzun hem de kısa dönemde GDP’yi olumlu yönde etkileyen tek değişkendir. BMONEY ve TRADE değişkenleri uzun vadede istatistiksel olarak anlamlı değil iken, kısa dönemde anlamlı olduğu görülmüştür. TRADE, kısa dönemde GDP’ yi pozitif yönde etkilerken, BMONEY negatif yönde etkilemektedir. CREDIT hem kısa vadede ve uzun vadede istatistiksel olarak anlamlı değildir. Nedenselliğin yönüne bakıldığında; MSCI'den GDP'ye, GDP’'den MBROAD'a, MSCI'dan TRADE'e ve MBROAD'dan TRADE'e doğru tek yönlü ilişki bulgulanmıştır. MBROAD ve MSCI arasında herhangi bir nedensellik yokken, TRADE ve GDP arasında iki yönlü bir nedensellik olduğu bulgulanmıştır. Buna göre seçilmiş değişkenler ve ülkeler için 1996-2016 periyodunda; finansal gelişmenin, iktisadi büyümenin belirleyicisi olduğunu kesin olarak söyleyemeyiz. 

Keywords

• İktisadi Büyüme,Finansal Gelişme,Panel Veri Analizi,BRICS Ülkeleri,Türkiye

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