An increase in oil prices in oil exporting countries leads to a significant increase in export revenues. The increase in the export revenues due to natural resources export revenue increases the amount of foreign currency entering the country and can stimulate to have an undesired appreciation in the value of the domestic currency. This valuation may negatively affect the economic performance of the country. The aim of this study is to determine the effects of changes in oil prices on economic performances in Russia under the assumption of controlling the exchange rate channel, which is known to have a direct effect on Russia’s economic performance. For this purpose, the modified Vector Autoregression model proposed by Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997) is used with quarterly data between 1994 and 2018. As a result of the analysis, when the ruble is prevented from appreciation, it is seen that the unexpected increase in oil prices decreased the interest rate more than when the floating exchange rate was adopted. On the other hand, prices are higher at the beginning than when the floating exchange rate is adopted but result in lower prices in the following periods.
Publication Date : January 15, 2021
|APA||Gül, L , Doğan, N , Berument, H . (2021). Petrol Fiyatları, Döviz Kuru Rejimi ve Rusya Ekonomisi . İstanbul Gelişim Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi , 8 (1) , 167-180 . DOI: 10.17336/igusbd.697463|