Sensitivity of Turkey's Economy in the Context of Secular Stagnation

Year 2022, Volume: 9 Issue: 1, 166 - 184, 28.04.2022

Hasan Önder Sarıdoğan

https://doi.org/10.17336/igusbd.736828

Abstract

The theory of secular stagnation was first used in 1939 by Alvin Hansen in reference to the American economy during the Great Depression. After the seventy years after Hansen's theory, the global crisis and the subsequent developments that occurred after it brought the issue of permanent stagnation back to the agenda. After the global crisis the advanced countries growth rate drastically declined and thereafter these countries has been suffering secular stagnation. Also, the economic crisis that began in 2008 in the financial markets of the advanced economies has spread, in a variety of ways, into developing countries. In this study, the effect of growth in advanced countries on Turkish growth rate is examined by vector auto regression (VAR) model, Impulse-Response functions and variance decomposition analysis. The model which consists of US growth rate, Europe growth rate, Japan growth and Turkey growth rate is estimated for the period of 1980-2019. According to the results of the analysis European countries growth affects Turkey more than the US growth and the impact from Japan is found to be limited.

Keywords

Secular Stagnation, Growth, Crisis, Impulse Response Analyses, Variance Decomposition

Seküler Stagnasyon Bağlamında Gelişmiş Ülkelerdeki Ekonomik Büyümenin Türkiye Ekonomisine Etkisi

Abstract

Seküler stagnasyon teorisi ilk olarak 1939 yılında Alvin Hansen tarafından Büyük Buhran sırasında Amerikan ekonomisinin durumunu ortaya koymak amacı ile geliştirilmiştir. Hansen'in teorisinden yetmiş yıl sonra küresel kriz ve sonrasında meydana gelen gelişmeler nedeniyle teori tekrar gündeme gelmiştir. Küresel krizden sonra gelişmiş ülkelerin büyüme hızı büyük ölçüde düşerek seküler (kalıcı) durgunluğa maruz kalmıştır. 2008 yılında gelişmiş ekonomilerin finansal piyasalarında başlayan ekonomik kriz çeşitli şekillerde gelişmekte olan ülkelere yayılmıştır. Bu çalışmada, gelişmiş ekonomilerdeki büyümenin Türkiye büyüme hızı üzerindeki etkisi, VAR modeli, Etki-Tepki Fonksiyonları ve Varyans Ayrıştırma yöntemi ile ampirik olarak analiz edilmiştir. ABD büyüme hızı, Avrupa büyüme hızı, Japonya büyüme hızı ve Türkiye büyüme hızı değişkenlerinden oluşan model, 1980-2019 dönemi için tahmin edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre Avrupa ekonomik büyümesi, Türk ekonomisini ABD büyümesinden daha fazla etkilemektedir. Japonya ekonomik büyümesi etkisinin ise sınırlı olduğu görülmektedir.

Keywords

Seküler Stagnasyon, Büyüme, Kriz, Etki Tepki Analizi, Varyans Ayrıştırma

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