A COMPARISON OF ARIMA AND GREY MODELS FOR ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION DEMAND FORECASTING: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Year 2016, Volume: 13 Issue: 3, 234 - 245, 15.07.2016

Bilal Şişman

Abstract

During last two decades energy requirements continue to rising with increasing population. The development and growth of a country and people living of standards are almost related to the energy utilization rate. Authors and researchers made different studies on Turkish electricity consumption that among the European Union and made predictions for the coming years. The purpose of this study is to compare ARIMA and Grey models each other with error estimations and estimate future electricity demand. This study is a proposition of a new approach by comparing grey prediction and ARIMA models with Model of Analysis of the Energy Demand (MAED) from 1970 until 2013. This study also explores new approach by using more data and suggestions regarding to electricity consumption. As a result, proposed approaches estimates have more accurate results than MAED model in the comparison of electricity consumption.

Keywords

Turkey’s electricity consumption forecasting; ARIMA, Grey model

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