Güneydoğu Asya’da Bölgesel Siyasetin Temel Dinamikleri Kapsamında Myanmar Dış Politikasının Analizi

Year 2022, Volume: 24 Issue: 2, 260 - 279, 30.12.2022

Müge Yüce

Abstract

Asya-Pasifik Bölgesi’nde güncel siyasi dinamikler, büyük güç politikaları kapsamında yeniden şekillenmektedir. Çin ve Amerika Birleşik Devletleri (ABD)’nin bölgedeki nüfuz alanlarını kuvvetlendirmeye yönelik stratejileri, Güneydoğu Asya’nın küçük ve orta büyüklükteki devletleri için eş zamanlı fırsat ve riskleri beraberinde getirmektedir. Hint Okyanusu’na açılan stratejik konumu sebebiyle Myanmar, büyük güçler arasındaki rekabetin yarattığı fırsat ve risklerden doğrudan etkilenmekte, bu doğrultuda dış politikasını yeniden şekillendirmektedir. Bu çalışma, bölgede artan güç rekabetinin yarattığı temel dinamikler kapsamında Myanmar’ın dış politika tercihlerine odaklanmaktadır. Ulaşılmak istenen temel amaç, bölgedeki güç rekabetinin Myanmar’ın dış politikasına ve özellikle Çin ile ilişkilerine etkisini ortaya çıkarmaktır. Bu kapsamda çalışmada öncelikle büyük güçler arasındaki rekabetin Myanmar dış politikasına etkisi, Uluslararası İlişkiler literatüründeki dengeleme (balancing), peşine takılma (bandwagoning) ve korunma (hedging) stratejileri temelinde incelenmiştir. Daha sonra bölgedeki rekabetin Myanmar’ın Çin’e yönelik dış politikası üzerine etkileri tarihsel süreç içerisinde ve ilk kısımda ele alınan stratejiler kapsamında açıklanmaya çalışılmıştır. Çalışmada belirlenen amaca ulaşmak için Myanmar ve Çin’in resmî dış politika belgeleri ile uluslararası literatürde daha önce ortaya konmuş kaynaklar incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre Myanmar, bölgedeki güç rekabetinden faydalanarak Çin ve ABD karşısında korunma ve dengeleme politikaları izlemekte ve bağımsızlığını korumaya çalışmaktadır. Ancak ABD öncülüğünde yaptırımlara maruz kalması, Myanmar’ın Çin’in peşine takılma stratejisi izlemesine yol açmaktadır. Bu strateji Myanmar’ın kuruluş felsefesinde yer alan bağımsız ve bağlantısız politikadan uzaklaşılmasına ve ülke içindeki siyasi kırılganlığın pekişmesine sebep olmaktadır.

Keywords

Güneydoğu Asya, Myanmar Dış Politikası, Çin, Southeast Asia, Myanmar, China, Balancing, Bandwagoning

Myanmar's Foreign Policy Analysis in the Context of the Basic Dynamics of Regional Politics in Southeast Asia

Abstract

Current political dynamics in the Asia-Pacific Region are being reshaped within the scope of great power politics. Foreign policies of China and the United States of America (USA) to expand their spheres of influence in the region bring along simultaneous opportunities and risks for the small and medium-sized states of Southeast Asia. Due to its strategic location, a gateway to the Indian Ocean, Myanmar is directly affected by power competition between the great powers and reshapes its foreign policy accordingly. This study focuses on Myanmar’s foreign policy in the context of the basic dynamics created by increasing power competition. The main aim is to reveal the effect of power competition in the region on Myanmar's foreign policy and especially on its relations with China. In this context firstly, the effect of the competition between the great powers on Myanmar's foreign policy was examined on the basis of balancing, bandwagoning and hedging strategies in the International Relations (IR) literature. Then, the effects of power competition on Myanmar's foreign policy towards China were tried to be explained in the historical process and within the scope of the aforementioned strategies. To achieve the main aim of the study, the official foreign policy documents of Myanmar and China and articles previously revealed in the IR literature were examined. According to the findings, Myanmar is trying to maintain its independence by taking advantage of power competition in the region by following balancing and hedging strategies against China and the USA. However, US-led sanctions on Myanmar cause the country turn to China and follow a bandwagoning strategy. This strategy causes Myanmar to move away from the independent and non-aligned policy in its founding philosophy and to reinforce the political fragility within the country.

Keywords

Southeast Asia, Myanmar, China, Balancing, Bandwagoning

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