Petrol Fiyatı ve Döviz Kuru Değişimlerinin Hisse Fiyatlarına Etkisi; Meksika ve Brezilya Örneği

Year 2024, Volume: 26 Issue: 1, 167 - 183, 29.06.2024

Nuray Yuzbaşıoğlu

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Meksika ve Brezilya hisse senedi piyasalarının petrol fiyatı ve döviz kuru değişimlerine tepkilerini analiz etmeyi hedeflemektedir. Araştırmada, Ocak 2000 - Aralık 2020 dönemine ait Meksika'nın MXX endeksi ve Brezilya'nın BVSP endeksi gibi hisse senedi fiyatları ile petrol fiyatı ve döviz kuruna ilişkin panel veri analizi yöntemini kullanarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışma iki model üzerine kurulmuştur. İlk modelde, döviz kuru ve petrol fiyatları sabitken Meksika'daki hisse senedi fiyatlarının Brezilya'daki hisse senetlerine göre daha düşük olduğu belirlenmiştir. Bu iki ülke arasında hisse senedi piyasalarının farklı düzeylerde performans gösterdiğini göstermektedir. Her iki ülkede de petrol fiyatlarındaki artışların hisse senedi fiyatlarını artırdığı ve benzer şekilde döviz kurundaki değişimlerin de hisse senedi fiyatlarını etkilediği sonucuna varılmıştır. Yani, petrol fiyatlarındaki artışlar ve döviz kurundaki değişimler, her iki ülkenin hisse senedi piyasaları üzerinde önemli etkilere sahip olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. İkinci modelde ise Meksika ve Brezilya'da petrol fiyatı ve döviz kuru değişimlerinin hisse senedi piyasalarını aynı seviyede etkilediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu, her iki ülkenin hisse senedi piyasalarının benzer şekilde petrol fiyatı ve döviz kuruna tepki verdiği sonucu tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre Meksika ve Brezilya'nın finansal piyasalarının farklı dinamiklere sahip olduğunu ve petrol fiyatı ile döviz kuru değişimlerine farklı düzeylerde tepki verdiğini göstermektedir. Bu çalışma, yatırımcılar ve finansal analistler için bu iki ülkenin hisse senedi piyasalarının nasıl etkilenebileceğine dair önemli bilgiler sunmaktadır.

Keywords

Hisse senedi, Döviz kuru, finansal piyasalar, Petrol fiyatları, Paneli veri

The Impact of Oil Price and Exchange Rate Changes on Stock Prices: The Case of Mexico and Brazil

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the reactions of the stock markets in Mexico and Brazil to changes in oil prices and exchange rates. The research was conducted using panel data analysis methods, considering stock prices such as Mexico's MXX index and Brazil's BVSP index, as well as oil prices and exchange rates, for the period from January 2000 to December 2020. The study is based on two models. In the first model, it is found that when the exchange rate and oil prices are fixed, stock prices in Mexico are lower than those in Brazil. This suggests that the stock markets in the two countries perform at different levels. Additionally, it is concluded that increases in oil prices lead to higher stock prices in both countries and similarly, changes in exchange rates also affect stock prices. In other words, increases in oil prices and fluctuations in exchange rates have significant effects on the stock markets of both countries. In the second model, it is concluded that changes in oil prices and exchange rates in Mexico and Brazil have an equal impact on the stock markets. This indicates that the stock markets of both countries react similarly to changes in oil prices and exchange rates. The results show that the financial markets of Mexico and Brazil have different dynamics, and they respond to changes in oil prices and exchange rates at varying levels. This study provides important information for investors and financial analysts about how the stock markets of these two countries may be affected.

Keywords

Stock, Exchange rate, financial markets, Oil prices, Panel data

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