Impact of Foreign Direct Investmenr and International Trade on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Türkiye

Year 2024, Volume: 26 Issue: 2, 249 - 269, 31.12.2024

Ahmet Kadiroğlu

Abstract

This study uses an economic growth model to determine the long-term relationship between foreign direct investment inflows and outflows, trade openness and economic growth in Türkiye using 1984-2022 data. The Johansen cointegration test approach was used to examine the existence of a long-run relationship between foreign direct investment, trade openness and economic growth. Then, FMOLS, DOLS and CCR coefficient estimators were used to test the direction and strength of the relationship between the variables. The results revealed that there was cointegration between the variables when GDP was the dependent variable. It has been determined that foreign direct investment inflows and trade openness rate have a significant and positive effect on long-term economic growth in Türkiye. On the other hand, foreign direct investment outflows have a positive but insignificant effect on the Turkish economy. Empirical results for the Turkish case confirm the expectation that foreign direct investments and trade openness can create positive spillover externalities for the host country. This study differs from other studies in the literature because it examines the dynamic relationship between the indicators included in the model using current data.

Keywords

Economic Integration, international trade, Foreign Direct Investments, Economic Growth, Türkiye

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım ve Uluslararası Ticaretin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye’den Ampirik Kanıtlar

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de doğrudan yabancı yatırım giriş ve çıkışlar, ticari açıklık ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki uzun vadeli ilişkiyi 1984-2022 verilerini kullanarak belirlemek için bir ekonomik büyüme modeli kullanmaktadır. Johansen eşbütünleşme testi yaklaşımı, doğrudan yabancı yatırım, ticari açıklık ve ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun vadeli bir ilişkinin varlığını incelemek için kullanılmıştır. Daha sonra değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin yönünü ve gücünü test etmek için FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR katsayı tahmincileri kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, GSYH’nin bağımlı değişken olduğu durumda değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri ve ticari açıklık oranının, Türkiye’de uzun vadede ekonomik büyüme üzerinde anlamlı ve pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğu belirlenmiştir. Diğer taraftan doğrudan yabancı yatırım çıkışları ise Türkiye ekonomisinde pozitif ancak önemsiz bir etkiye sahiptir. Türkiye örneği için ampirik sonuçlar, doğrudan yabancı yatırımların ve ticari açıklığın ev sahibi ülke için olumlu yayılma dışsallıkları yaratabileceğine dair beklentiyi doğrulamaktadır. Bu çalışma, güncel veriler kullanarak modele dahil edilen göstergeler arasındaki dinamik ilişkiyi birlikte incelenmesinden dolayı literatürdeki diğer çalışmalardan farklılaşmaktadır.

Keywords

Ekonomik Entegrasyon, Uluslararası Ticaret, Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar, Ekonomik Büyüme, Türkiye.

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