The Relationship Between Military Expenditures and Employment: The Case of MINT Countries

Year 2023, Volume: 11 Issue: 1, 17 - 35, 28.03.2023

Mehmet Mert Türk

Abstract

In the study, the interaction between military expenditures and employment level was investigated by panel data analysis method, using annual data for the 1991-2020 period for the economies of Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey, which are categorized as MINT countries. In the study, after heterogeneity research and cross-sectional dependence test were performed as a method, CADF (Cross-Sectionally Augmented Dickey-Fuller) Panel Unit Root Test was used to test for stationarity. Westerlund and Edgerton (2008) analyzed the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables with the structural break panel cointegration test, in order to avoid the spurious regression problem in the model in which the level values could not be determined to be stationary as a result of the unit root test. After the long-term relationship detected, panel error correction model estimation was made using the Extended Mean Group (AMG) estimator. For the analysis of the causality relationship between the variables, the direction and degree of the relationship were determined by applying the Cannings and Pedroni Panel Causality Test. The break dates of the long-term relationship determined as a result of the analysis indicate the last ten-year period of the 20th century. The existence of a one-way causality relationship from military expenditures to employment level has been revealed as a result of the analysis and it has been determined that a 1% increase in military expenditures will decrease employment by 0.02%.

Keywords

Military Expenditures, Employment, Panel Data Analysis, MINT Countries

Askeri Harcamalar ve İstihdam İlişkisi: MINT Ülkeleri Örneği

Abstract

Çalışmada MINT ülkeleri olarak kategorize edilen Meksika, Endonezya, Nijerya ve Türkiye ekonomileri için 1991-2020 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanılarak askeri harcamalar ve istihdam düzeyi arasında ki etkileşim panel veri analizi metodu ile araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada yöntem olarak heterojenite araştırması ve yatay kesit bağımlılığı testi yapıldıktan sonra durağanlık sınaması için CADF (Cross-Sectionally Augmented Dickey–Fuller) Panel Birim Kök Testi yapılmıştır. Birim kök testi sonucunda düzey değerlerinde durağanlık tespit edilemeyen modelde sahte regresyon probleminden kaçınmak amacıyla Westerlund ve Edgerton (2008) yapısal kırılmalı panel eş bütünleşme testi ile değişkenler arasında uzun dönem ilişkisinin varlığı analiz edilmiştir. Saptanan uzun dönemli ilişki sonrasında Genişletilmiş Ortalama Grup (AMG) tahmincisi kullanılarak panel hata düzeltme model tahmini yapılmıştır. Değişkenler arası nedensellik ilişkisinin analizi için ise Cannings ve Pedroni Panel Nedensellik Testi uygulanarak ilişkinin yönü ve derecesi tespit edilmiştir. Yapılan analiz sonucunda tespit edilen uzun dönemli ilişkiye ait kırılma tarihleri 20 yy.’ın son on yıllık dönemini işaret etmektedir. Askeri harcamalardan istihdam düzeyine olacak şekilde tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi varlığı yapılan analiz sonucu ortaya konmuş ve askeri harcamalarda gerçekleşecek %1’lik artışın istihdamı %0.02 oranında düşüreceği tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

askeri harcamalar, istihdam, panel veri analizi, MINT ülkeleri

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