TÜRKİYE’DE MALİ İLLÜZYON

Öz

Mali illüzyon olgusu, vergi ve benzeri kamu gelirlerinin şeffaflıktan uzak olması nedeniyle kamu finansman bedelini oluşturan vergi fiyatının eksik tahmin edilmesinin, kamusal mal ve hizmetlere yönelik talep artışıyla sonuçlanarak, kamu harcamalarını ve vergisel yükümlülükleri artırması şeklinde ifade edilmektedir. Buradan hareketle bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye özelinde mali illüzyonun varlığını ölçmektir. Bu amaçla, 2006-2020 dönemi için iller bazında çeşitli vergi kalemlerine ait veriler ile dolaylı-dolaysız vergi gelirlerine ait veriler, tahsilat değerleri dikkate alınarak derlenmiş ve birincisi Herfindahl-Hirschman indeksi, ikincisi dolaylı-dolaysız vergi gelirleri oranı olmak üzere iki temel yöntem dahilinde bir indeks hesaplaması gerçekleştirilmiştir. Herfindahl-Hirschman indeksi sonuçları, HH indeksi en yüksek olan vergi kaleminin şans oyunları vergisi; en düşük indekse sahip olan vergi kaleminin ise belirli dönemlerde değişiklik göstermesine rağmen gelir vergisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Bununla birlikte, dolaylı vergilerin HH indeksi toplam değerinin, dolaysız vergilere kıyasla oldukça fazla olması ve ortalama olarak dolaysız vergilerin %34, dolaylı vergilerin %66 oransal dağılıma sahip olması, incelenen dönemlerde Türkiye özelinde mali illüzyonun görüldüğüne işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Herfindahl- Hirschman İndeks
• Kamu Tercihi İktisadı
• Mali İllüzyon

FISCAL ILLUSION IN TURKEY

Öz

The phenomenon of fiscal illusion is expressed as an incomplete estimate
of the tax price, which constitues the cost of public financing due to the lack of transparency of
taxes and similar public revenues, resulting in an increase in demand for public goods and services,
increasing public spending and tax obligations. Based on this, the purpose of this study is to measure
the existence of a fiscal illusion in Turkey, for this purpose, the data items in some of the provinces
for the period of 2006-2020 various direct and indirect tax collection and tax revenue data compiled
by first considering the values of the Herfindahl-Hirschman ındex, the ratio of direct and indirect tax
revenues to the latter two basic methods was carried out within the calculation of an ındex. The
results of the Herfindahl-Hirschman ındex show that the tax item with the highest HH ındex is a
gambling tax, and the tax item with the lowest ındex is an income tax, although it varies over certain
periods. However, the total value of the HH ındex of indirect taxes is quite large compared to direct
taxes, and on average, direct taxes have a proportional distribution of 34% and indirect taxes 66%,
indicating that the fiscal illusion was observed in Turkey during the examined periods.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Herfindahl-Hirschman Index
• Public Choice Economics
• Fiscal Illusion.

Kaynakça

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