ESTIMATING DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS OF SCHEDULE ACTIVITY DURATION ON THE BASIS OF RISK RELATED TO EXPECTED PROJECT CONDITIONS

Abstract

The paper focuses on handling schedule risks. For each schedule activity, a statistical distribution of its duration is to be defined. Therefore, a research was undertaken to develop a method to assist planners in determining activity duration distribution parameters according to risk level. A triangular distribution was assumed, and its parameters estimated on the basis of three input values (the most likely, pessimistic and optimistic durations). In contrast to the Program Evaluation and Review Technique, the approach proposed in the paper assumes that these input values should be evaluated independently of the particular project’s conditions and could be derived from the planner’s database of past experience. For the risk evaluation, the AHP was adopted. The proposed risk model – considering the diversity of activity types – was based on evaluating and weighting the particular project’s characteristics and expected conditions. This approach, combined with simulation technique, is argued to improve project planning and evaluation of risk mitigation alternatives

Keywords

• Project scheduling, Project risk assessment, Project management

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