The Key Factor Analysis to the Reservoirs on the Basis of Bayesian Law

Year 2019, , 37 - 42, 31.03.2019

Jian Sun , Qi Lı Mingqiang Chen Zekai Zhang

https://doi.org/10.22399/ijcesen.422691

Abstract

The oil price shocks
further exaggerates the inherent difficulties in studying exploration of
complex reservoirs. Therefore, as the main way of reducing cost, it's necessary
to analyze the main factors of complex reservoir formation before intensively
exploration. Bayesian law is used to build a diagnostic model. Six key factors
in the effectiveness of hydrocarbon reservoir are starting points. According to
the maximum entropy principle and single well event’s probability of drilled
wells with prior probability, the probability of adverse factors in the forming
of hydrocarbon reservoir can be concluded. Therefore, influencing degree of
each factor can be obtained. Meanwhile, by the theory of Slicher, the
distribution of oil and gas reservoirs conform to Poisson’s distribution. The
results can be applied to calculate the probability of hydrocarbon reservoir’s
discovery and to predict the exploration potential of survey region. From the
perspective of testing, this paper use Wushi sag as an example. By using the
single well event’s probability of nine drilled wells and calculating the
influence value of key factors which are adverse to form the hydrocarbon
reservoir in Wushi sag, this paper focuses on the key aspects-poor reservoir
condition and absent migration pathway. By applying Poisson’s distribution to
study the exploration prospect, this study reveals that there is at least one
district where commercial gas reservoirs will be discovered in Wushi sag. In
conclusion, the diagnostic model based on Bayesian law provides a new and
unique way of thinking to solve the geological problems in complex condition,
and it is effective to the petroleum geological knowledge.

Keywords

Bayesian Law, Wushi Sag, Probability Theory, Poisson Distribution, Prospection

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