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Year 2019, Volume: 5 Issue: 1, 37 - 42, 31.03.2019
https://doi.org/10.22399/ijcesen.422691

Abstract

References

  • [1] Gong Deyu, Li Ming et al. (2014) Geochemical Characteristics and Origins of the Oils in Wushi Sag, Tarim Basin. Natural Gas Geoscience Vol.25 No.1 Jan.
  • [2] Lei Ganglin, Ran Qigui et al. (2013) Characteristics and Controlling Factors of Mesozoic Reservoirs in Eastern Wushi Sag, Tarim Basin. XINJIANG PETROLEUM GEOLOGY. Vol.34 No.1Feb. 17-19.
  • [3] Zhou Yanzhao, Lu Xuesong et al. (2016) The main controlling factors of reservoir physical property and oiliness in the structural lithologic reservoirs in the east of Wushi Sag, Kuqa foreland basin. Natural Gas Geoscience. Vol.27 No.6 Jun.
  • [4] Advanced Mathematics Teaching Research Group of Zhejiang University. (1985) Engineering MathematicsProbability Theory and Mathematical Statistics. Beijing: Higher Education Press, 21-26.
  • [5] Wang Rongxin (1996) Mathematical Statistics. Xian: Xi’an Jiaotong University Press.
  • [6] Zhang Zhenhong, Lv Xiuxiang et al. (2004) Petrogeologic feature of Wushi Sag in Talimu Basin. Journal of Xi′an Shiyou University(Natural Science Edition) Vol.18 No. 4Jul. 29-31+65-3.
  • [7] Jia Jinhua, Zhou Dongyan et al. (2004) Petroleum geologic characteristics of Wushi Sag in Tarim Basin. ACTA PETROLEI SINICA. Vol.25 No.6Nov. 12-17.
  • [8] Zheng Min, Peng Gengxin et al. (2008) Structural pattern and its control on hydrocarbon accumulations in Wushi Sag, Kuche Depression, Tarim Basin. PETROLEUM EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT. Vol.35 No.4Aug. 444-451.
  • [9] Zhang Bo, Li Jianghai et al. (2007) PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION ON GEOLOGICAL DISTRIBUTION OF METAMORPHICCORE COMPLEX AND HYDROCARBON IN KUCHE DEPRESSION. NATURAL GAS GEOSCIENCE. Vol.18 No.2Apr. 200-203.
  • [10] Yang Fan, Jia Jinhua (2006) Alluvial Fan and Fan-delta Sedimentary Facies and Favorable Assemblage of Reservoir and Seal of Wushi Sag (Cretaceous) in Tarmi Basin. ACTA SEDIMENTOLOGICA SINICA Vol.24 No.5Oct. 681-689.
  • [11] Yu Hai, Chen Yong et al. (2008) The Way to Identify the Prior probability Distribution on the Base of Maximum Entropy Principle Risk. CHINA SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY INFORMATION. Feb. 276-277.

The Key Factor Analysis to the Reservoirs on the Basis of Bayesian Law

Year 2019, Volume: 5 Issue: 1, 37 - 42, 31.03.2019
https://doi.org/10.22399/ijcesen.422691

Abstract

The oil price shocks
further exaggerates the inherent difficulties in studying exploration of
complex reservoirs. Therefore, as the main way of reducing cost, it's necessary
to analyze the main factors of complex reservoir formation before intensively
exploration. Bayesian law is used to build a diagnostic model. Six key factors
in the effectiveness of hydrocarbon reservoir are starting points. According to
the maximum entropy principle and single well event’s probability of drilled
wells with prior probability, the probability of adverse factors in the forming
of hydrocarbon reservoir can be concluded. Therefore, influencing degree of
each factor can be obtained. Meanwhile, by the theory of Slicher, the
distribution of oil and gas reservoirs conform to Poisson’s distribution. The
results can be applied to calculate the probability of hydrocarbon reservoir’s
discovery and to predict the exploration potential of survey region. From the
perspective of testing, this paper use Wushi sag as an example. By using the
single well event’s probability of nine drilled wells and calculating the
influence value of key factors which are adverse to form the hydrocarbon
reservoir in Wushi sag, this paper focuses on the key aspects-poor reservoir
condition and absent migration pathway. By applying Poisson’s distribution to
study the exploration prospect, this study reveals that there is at least one
district where commercial gas reservoirs will be discovered in Wushi sag. In
conclusion, the diagnostic model based on Bayesian law provides a new and
unique way of thinking to solve the geological problems in complex condition,
and it is effective to the petroleum geological knowledge.

References

  • [1] Gong Deyu, Li Ming et al. (2014) Geochemical Characteristics and Origins of the Oils in Wushi Sag, Tarim Basin. Natural Gas Geoscience Vol.25 No.1 Jan.
  • [2] Lei Ganglin, Ran Qigui et al. (2013) Characteristics and Controlling Factors of Mesozoic Reservoirs in Eastern Wushi Sag, Tarim Basin. XINJIANG PETROLEUM GEOLOGY. Vol.34 No.1Feb. 17-19.
  • [3] Zhou Yanzhao, Lu Xuesong et al. (2016) The main controlling factors of reservoir physical property and oiliness in the structural lithologic reservoirs in the east of Wushi Sag, Kuqa foreland basin. Natural Gas Geoscience. Vol.27 No.6 Jun.
  • [4] Advanced Mathematics Teaching Research Group of Zhejiang University. (1985) Engineering MathematicsProbability Theory and Mathematical Statistics. Beijing: Higher Education Press, 21-26.
  • [5] Wang Rongxin (1996) Mathematical Statistics. Xian: Xi’an Jiaotong University Press.
  • [6] Zhang Zhenhong, Lv Xiuxiang et al. (2004) Petrogeologic feature of Wushi Sag in Talimu Basin. Journal of Xi′an Shiyou University(Natural Science Edition) Vol.18 No. 4Jul. 29-31+65-3.
  • [7] Jia Jinhua, Zhou Dongyan et al. (2004) Petroleum geologic characteristics of Wushi Sag in Tarim Basin. ACTA PETROLEI SINICA. Vol.25 No.6Nov. 12-17.
  • [8] Zheng Min, Peng Gengxin et al. (2008) Structural pattern and its control on hydrocarbon accumulations in Wushi Sag, Kuche Depression, Tarim Basin. PETROLEUM EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT. Vol.35 No.4Aug. 444-451.
  • [9] Zhang Bo, Li Jianghai et al. (2007) PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION ON GEOLOGICAL DISTRIBUTION OF METAMORPHICCORE COMPLEX AND HYDROCARBON IN KUCHE DEPRESSION. NATURAL GAS GEOSCIENCE. Vol.18 No.2Apr. 200-203.
  • [10] Yang Fan, Jia Jinhua (2006) Alluvial Fan and Fan-delta Sedimentary Facies and Favorable Assemblage of Reservoir and Seal of Wushi Sag (Cretaceous) in Tarmi Basin. ACTA SEDIMENTOLOGICA SINICA Vol.24 No.5Oct. 681-689.
  • [11] Yu Hai, Chen Yong et al. (2008) The Way to Identify the Prior probability Distribution on the Base of Maximum Entropy Principle Risk. CHINA SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY INFORMATION. Feb. 276-277.
There are 11 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Jian Sun 0000-0002-5856-4824

Qi Lı This is me

Mingqiang Chen This is me

Zekai Zhang This is me

Publication Date March 31, 2019
Submission Date May 10, 2018
Acceptance Date February 21, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2019 Volume: 5 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Sun, J., Lı, Q., Chen, M., Zhang, Z. (2019). The Key Factor Analysis to the Reservoirs on the Basis of Bayesian Law. International Journal of Computational and Experimental Science and Engineering, 5(1), 37-42. https://doi.org/10.22399/ijcesen.422691