Orta Gelir Tuzağı, Ticari Açıklık ve Yakınsama İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

Dünya Bankası’nın kişi başına GSYH ülke sınıflandırmasına göre Türkiye 1955 yılından araştırmanın yapıldığı 2021’e kadar geçen dönemde orta gelirli ülkeler grubunda yer almıştır. Bu çalışmada öncelikle Türkiye ekonomisinin karşılaştığı durumun orta gelir tuzağı olup olmadığı Türkiye ve referans ülke olarak alınan ABD GSYH’lerinin 1960 – 2021 dönemindeki yıllık farklarına bir geleneksel ve üç farklı yapısal kırılmalı birim kök test uygulanmak suretiyle araştırılmıştır. Bir yapısal kırılmalı test dışındaki tüm birim kök sınamalarının bulguları serinin durağan olmadığını göstermiştir. Diğer taraftan Türkiye’nin kişi başına GSYH’sinin referans ülke ABD GSYH’sine oranı ilgili dönem için nispi eşik olarak belirlenen 0,08 – 0,36 aralığında kalmıştır. Bulgular Türkiye’nin orta gelir tuzağına takıldığına dair kesin kanıtlar sağlamamakla birlikte bu riskin söz konusu olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Daha sonra Türkiye ve ABD GSYH’leri yakınsaması ile ticari açıklık, imalat sanayi ürünleri ithalatı ve ihracatı, tarımsal ürünler ithalatı ve ihracatı, ihracatın ithalatı karşılama oranı, reel efektif döviz kuru arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönem ilişkiler 1990–2021 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanılmak suretiyle araştırılmıştır. Uygulanan ARDL sınır testinin bulguları ticari açıklık düzeyindeki artışların uzun dönemde Türkiye ile ABD kişi başına GSYH’lerinin yakınsamasına neden olduğunu göstermektedir. İmalat sanayi ürünleri ithalatının toplam GSYH içindeki payındaki artışlar hem uzun hem de kısa dönemde, tarımsal ürünler ithalatının payındaki artışlar ise uzun dönemde ıraksamaya yol açmaktadır.

Keywords

• Türkiye
• orta gelir tuzağı
• birim kök testi
• ticari açıklık
• yakınsama
• ARDL sınır testi

Middle Income Trap, Trade Openness and Income Convergence: Evidence from Turkey

Abstract

According to World Bank country classifications by income level, Turkey has been a middle income country since 1955. In the first stage of the study, whether the situation faced by the Turkish economy is a middle–income trap or not was investigated by applying one traditional and three structural break unit root tests to the annual range of GDP per capita of Turkey relative to USA. The annual time series spanning from 1960 to 2020 was found to be not–stationary in all unit root tests except for one of the unit root tests which allow for a structural break. On the other hand, the ratio of Turkey's per capita GDP to the reference country's (USA) GDP remained in the range of 0.08 – 0.36, which was considered as the relative threshold throughout the period examined. Although the findings do not provide conclusive evidence for the existence of the middle–income trap, they indicate that Turkey is at risk of facing it. In the second stage of the study, the long– and short–run relationship between the convergence of Turkey and USA GDPs, and trade openness was investigated using annual data for the period 1990–2021. Exports and imports of manufacturing industries products and agricultural products as a percentage of GDP, the ratio of exports to imports, and the real effective exchange rate were included as explanatory variables in the ARDL bounds model applied. The findings reveal that increases in the level of trade openness in Turkey cause the per capita GDP of Turkey and the USA to converge in the long–run. While the increasing share of agricultural products imports in total GDP cause divergence in the long–run, increasing the share of manufacturing industry products imports cause divergence in both the long– and short–run.

Keywords

• Turkey
• middle income trap
• unit root test
• trade openness
• convergence
• ARDL bounds test

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