Banka Kredileri İthalatı Tetikliyor mu? MIST Ülkeleri İçin Ampirik Bir Analiz

Abstract

Bu makale banka kredilerinin, döviz kurunun ve ekonomik büyümenin ithalat üzerindeki etkisini, Ortak Korelasyonlu Ortalama Grubu (CCEMG) ve Artırılmış Ortalama Grubu (AMG) tahmincilerini kullanarak, MIST (Meksika, Endonezya, Güney Kore, Türkiye) ülkeleri için 1980-2020 dönemine ait veriler aracılığıyla araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Ayrıca değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Dumitrescu ve Hurlin testi yardımıyla incelenmiştir. Bulgular, panelin tamamı için banka kredilerinin, ekonomik büyümenin ve döviz kurunun ithalat üzerindeki etkisinin anlamlı ve pozitif olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. AMG tahmincisine göre banka kredilerindeki artış, Endonezya hariç ithalatın da artmasına neden olmaktadır. Ayrıca nedensellik testi banka kredilerinden ithalata doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik bağıntısının olduğunu göstermiştir. Buna ilave olarak ekonomik büyüme ve ithalat arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik söz konusudur.

Keywords

• Banka Kredileri
• İthalat
• Panel Veri Analizi

Do Bank Loans Trigger Imports? An Empirical Analysis for MIST Countries

Abstract

This paper seeks to investigate the effect of bank loans, economic growth, and exchange rate on imports over the period 1980–2020 for MIST countries (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, and Türkiye), using Common Correlated Effect Mean Group (CCEMG) and Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimators. In addition, the causality linkage between the variables was examined through the Dumitrescu and Hurlin test. The findings showed that bank loans, economic growth, and the exchange rate have a positive and significant effect on imports for the whole panel. According to the AMG estimator, an increase in bank loans leads to an increase in imports, excluding Indonesia. Moreover, the causality test indicated that there is a unidirectional linkage from bank loans to imports. Besides, a bidirectional linkage between economic growth and imports was found.

Keywords

• Bank Loans
• Imports
• Panel Data Analysis

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